The Big 4 regression guys in this election (Silver, Linzer, Wang, and Jackman) have all converged on 332 as the most likely number of electoral votes for Obama. The second most likely is 303 electoral votes. The third most likely is 347. I suspect all of those numbers reflect a race that is not as close as you believe (personally I suspect 303 is the right number) and it will be interesting to get your take on this after we get the final result.
Arizona is non-competitive. Romney has always had the state. The real reason to turn-out is the Flake/Carmona Senate election (which Flake will probably win anyway).
I don't know if you're interested in hearing about why I like Stein as it kind of flies in the face of the premise of your question (which presumed I was voting for one of the two major candidates). Also I've been successfully trolling The Madame (who voted for Obama) by pointing out repeatedly that I'm the bigger feminist now.
I haven't seen any numbers but it's being reported that exit polls show that the race is incredibly tight.
Obama wins those 5 and it's over regardless of where VA, CO or IA end up.R: NC, FL
O: OH, NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: VA, CO, IA
Oh yeah, thumbs up on trolling the Madame too.
Last edited by Gyp Rosetti; 11-06-2012 at 05:06 PM.
Seriously though, if the polls are close, Romney is finished. Obama already holds a commanding lead among early voters. Romney has to make up a lot of ground in order to win.
Looks like OH has been moved back to "toss up" status.