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  1. #16
    CRIMINAL Lawyer Sirkickyass's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stoked View Post
    From what I am reading the polls this time around have been based on 2008 turnout and that is not acutally the case. If that is true the Obama has a very real chance of losing this.
    Link? Although I guess we'll know in a few hours anyway.

    In any event, my present understanding is that different polling firms are using different turnout models that make different assumptions. This part of the reason poll averaging is a thing to begin with and part of the reason that different polling firms have persistent house effects that can be measured and corrected for. In any event, if it is the case that polling firms use the last general election turn-out model every new election then we should have enough election data going back to 1968 to understand how that effects projections and correct for it using regression analysis.

    TL;DR: I think this is grasping at straws.

  2. #17
    Moderator Revolution 9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stoked View Post

    Romney loss.
    You'll be crying in the bathroom?
    "FEEL LIKE I'M ALL FLESH AND NO BONE
    I'M NOT THE SHAPES THAT I'M SHOWN
    HOPE I GET IT RIGHT TOMORROW"

  3. #18
    Moderator Stoked's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Revolution 9 View Post
    You'll be crying in the bathroom?
    Oh please. Will you be out burning tires if Obama loses?
    #BelieveInLindsey #BelieveInSnyder

    I Got a feeling that tonight's gonna be a good night; that tonight's gonna be a good night;
    that tonight's gonna be a good good night; wooh hoo (x4) - For Cy

  4. #19
    Senior Member
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    My dream scenario is for an Obama win causing a serious stock market correction and even lower drop in 30 year rates.

  5. #20
    Super Clutch Gameface's Avatar
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    Honestly I think the fallout will be a big meh for the most part. I can see possible demonstrations in a few majority black areas if it's close (it would have to be close for Romney to win) and there's any hint of funny business in the vote counting.

  6. #21
    Senior Member Duck Rodgers's Avatar
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    If Romney loses, all the white horses around the world will be raptured.

    If Obama loses, his army of e-thugs that have taken to twitter in mass the past month or so threatning to kill Romney if he wins won't get breast fed by their upset mothers for the next week and will have hit the streets to find food instead.

  7. #22
    Moderator Revolution 9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stoked View Post
    Oh please. Will you be out burning tires if Obama loses?

    I'll be crying, drunk, and wondering the streets at 7am with a copy of the communist manifesto in back pocket.
    "FEEL LIKE I'M ALL FLESH AND NO BONE
    I'M NOT THE SHAPES THAT I'M SHOWN
    HOPE I GET IT RIGHT TOMORROW"

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by franklin View Post
    My dream scenario is for an Obama win causing a serious stock market correction and even lower drop in 30 year rates.
    I almost held off on my re-fi smply because I was very confident that Obama would win and think **** will tank another quarter point or so over the next month or so.

  9. #24
    Senior Member Scat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Revolution 9 View Post
    I'll be crying, drunk, and wondering the streets at 7am with a copy of the communist manifesto in back pocket.
    So in other words, nothing will have changed.

  10. #25
    In pursuit of #9 PKM's Avatar
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    I would love to respond but won't because I lack the initiative to follow up to the attacks I'd receive. I'll just say there would be no negative fallout, per se, to either candidate losing .. but a positive effect (even if short-lived) to a Romney win.
    #dumptruckin

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  12. #26
    Senior Member The Thriller's Avatar
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    I think the fallout for the GOP if they lose this will be the Tea Party/ultraconservative stance. Will pressure finally be brought onto the GOP to move closer to center, compromise, take a less radical stance on illegals, minorities, and women (in particular, abortion and rape)?

    Look in 2016 for a moderate like Huntsman or a Latino (Rubio) to receive a lot of consideration.
    Lakers Suck.

  13. #27
    In pursuit of #9 PKM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Thriller View Post
    I think the fallout for the GOP if they lose this will be the Tea Party/ultraconservative stance. Will pressure finally be brought onto the GOP to move closer to center, compromise, take a less radical stance on illegals, minorities, and women?
    I would more fear the freezing of spending, in this country, by wealthy business owners/entrepreneurs. I'm not kidding. You can call them crazy or un-American, but many/most are scared to death of investing into another 4years of Obama. If you can't see how that hurts, you're blind. I can admit the deficiencies of the GOP, and have done so, I have yet to see any compromise from you.
    #dumptruckin

  14. #28
    Senior Member The Thriller's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PKM View Post
    I would more fear the freezing of spending, in this country, by wealthy business owners/entrepreneurs. I'm not kidding. You can call them crazy or un-American, but many/most are scared to death of investing into another 4years of Obama. If you can't see how that hurts, you're blind. I can admit the deficiencies of the GOP, and have done so, I have yet to see any compromise from you.
    What are you basing this off on?

    Furthermore, what's preventing these companies from getting their asses kicked by companies and business owners who won't be afraid of investing? While these "business owners" you seem familiar with are afraid many others might see opportunity.

    If they're not careful, your scared business owners might end up losing their businesses.

    I just don't buy your post at all. People will invest. They won't refuse opportunities to make money. The economy is already recovering. I've heard/read that we're going to add 12 million new jobs in the next lil while regardless of who is President.
    Lakers Suck.

  15. #29
    In pursuit of #9 PKM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Thriller View Post
    What are you basing this off on?

    Furthermore, what's preventing these companies from getting their asses kicked by companies and business owners who won't be afraid of investing? While these "business owners" you seem familiar with are afraid many others might see opportunity.

    If they're not careful, your scared business owners might end up losing their businesses.

    I just don't buy your post at all. People will invest. They won't refuse opportunities to make money. The economy is already recovering. I've heard/read that we're going to add 12 million new jobs in the next lil while regardless of who is President.
    Maybe you're right and I hope you are, 100%. Maybe my sphere is small .. but ALL of them are petrified of Obama, again.
    Don't take offense of that as an attack .. it's not meant to be, I'm just telling you what the 1%ers are saying.

    Your best point is that maybe they step aside and make room for new money, new ventures .. but all/most businesses soon come to realize they need support/(or lack of) government to ultimately succeed. It's a reality.

    Neither 'side' is perfect .. both have their pros and cons .. but a win by Romney would spur the economy, at least in the short-term .. and perhaps in the long term .. if, in fact, we have great business men and women in this country.
    #dumptruckin

  16. #30
    First BF League CHAMP nightmare3983's Avatar
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    The fallout for me will be me bugging Utah's Washington DC contingent to get to work on abolishing the electoral college. Voters in states with more people shouldn't get any more say than any other voter anywhere else in the country.

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