For Blackham, re: Gasol

[idiot]

http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2...-even-possible

The skinny: concludes that trading with Utah is the only realistic possibility for trading Gasol. It considers Millsap, Marvin & Raja for Gasol. (I don't know why it doesn't additionally consider Mo rather than Marvin.) It concludes Utah not likely to do the trade, as Jazz would have a new logjam of bigs and in any case would rather have Al around than Pau to mentor Favors and Kanter.

My thoughts, as someone who's advocated for pursuing Gasol in the past: Gasol for Millsap, Mo & Bell would be very interesting to me. But we'd have to be able to flip Al for a good, young PG, and I doubt that's possible. Also injury unknowns with Favors & Gasol scare me right now.

[Weezur]

Isn't Gasol indefinetly out with a knee injury as of today?

[HeavenHarris]

i dont get it. whats blackham?

[blackham9258]

Blackham is me Blackham predicted the exact Deron Williams trade over a month before it happened (although I did think we would get the LAL pick NJ had). Blackham is a wicked smart basketball mind. Kidding aside, I have thought and thought and thought about this trade like I did with the Deron one. On Real GM I have posted this on the Jazz board, Lakers Board, and Trade board. I originally posted this exact trade of Millsap/Marvin/Raja but I also like the one that swaps Mo perhaps more.

My basic assumptions are these: Gasol will return to all star level with a Jazz team that runs the plays and offense through him. He will at the very least be a huge asset as he reestablishes his trade value. I actually see him netting a top 5 pick if we want to flip him at the draft (although coupled with our GSW pick). Or we keep him and re up him for a 3/36M deal like Duncan/Garnett.

The other reason is although I like Mo, Al, Paul if any are your starters and they aren't paired with an all star you are a mediocre team. I want Pau because he prevents us from committing what I believe is franchise suicide... "Signing non All Star players to All Star money long term deals".

I am not saying the Jazz will do this, but I think they should. When Carmello was being talked about with New Jersey and he was waffling about going to NJ, I said the Jazz should swoop in and do that deal. The best deals are done 1 1/2 to 2 years in advance. The Deron deal is like that. Getting Favors at that point was perfect as well because the writing was on the wall that he would be great, but he had 2 years before he would really start to show it.

We don't want 4/$60M for Jefferson because we will then re up Favors/Hayward this year, and Kanter/Burks next and all our cap is gone and we are left with Al as our best player.... and if that is the case we will be mediocre. Same thing with resigning Mo who will be asking 3/$25M, and Paul who will be asking for 4/$40.

My plan: Paul/MO/Raja (although he will be bought out and picked up by LAL to save them money)= preventing from resigning two bad long term contracts. We get Pau who will return to 20/10 and become a guy to build around, who will recruit other players, and bring a higher level of legitimacy to the Jazz. Remember, 2 years ago Pau was considered the best Big in the world. He is only 32 and likely has 4-5 very productive years with perhaps 3 all star years as well. The Jazz will utilize him correctly and give him 50% more FG and touches, and touches in the right spot (low post). His career norms of 52%FG will recover quickly and he will be right back to 20/10.

Then if for whatever reason we want to flip him at the draft with Toronto-Cleveland-Washington for Marcus Smart... fine. But only do this if he has given signals of not wanting to resign at the end of the next season.

[HeavenHarris]

Blackham bro you sound like the **** bro you really predicted the dwill trade exactly? wow.
interesting thoughts. i think you have good ideas but if jazz bring in gasol wont they just remain a mediocre team?
i think if theyre gonna trade sapman or big al do it for some picks or something so you get cheap young players who have potential to be studs for a long time. if they turn into studs then youve got cheap young studs to pair with favors, burks, ghost face drilllah, etc. if they suck, then jazz will make the lottery and get their own picks. with pau, they will make the playoffs but probably not improve enough to win larry o'brien's heart.

[blackham9258]

The prediction was pretty simple: As soon as all the NJ offers for Carmello came out I felt that was a no brainer for us... I also felt that we should have got that one more LAL pick.

Moving on: The Jazz need either lottery luck, or pick luck. Meaning SAN ANTONIO got the lottery luck by getting Duncan by jumping from 7 to 1 in the lottery. But they then got 1st round and second round pick luck: Parker at 30 in the first round! (Jazz took Raul Lopez 29... ouch!) Ginobili in the 2nd round. So luck in the lottery, and two all stars in the late first and 2nd round.

The Jazz have done pretty good getting value in the 2nd round, and developing players to where you could say they are lottery luck away from being San Antonio (Tim Duncan). But it takes 2 stud all stars and maybe 3 to win a championship. Could the Jazz compete in 2-3 years: Yes if Favors becomes D Howard which he has the skill set to do so. If Pau returns to All star status. If Hayward becomes Ginobili light (which I could see), and if we luck out in the lottery: Say Marcus Smart slips to our GSW pick but then blows up as a PG stud that no body expected... kind of like Lillard is doing from the 6th pick in the draft.

Things change quickly if players improve and pick here or there goes your way.

[HeavenHarris]

so what kind of starting line up are you thinking of if the jazz trade for Pau, bro? and what to do with BIG AL?

[idiot]

Blackham, I'm much more pessimistic than you about Gasol returning to all-world form. I'd put the odds at something like this: notably better in helping the team win than Al & Paul 30%; somewhere in the neighborhood of Paul and Al's contributions 45%; likely less helpful than Paul and Al 25%. I'd be willing to take those odds only because it gives Favors/Kanter a more clear track to taking over. I agree with you that re-signing Al & Paul to large contracts would be a long-term mistake. Gasol gives us an extra year where Favors & Kanter don't have all the pressure on them.

But as I said before, this only makes sense if we also flip Jefferson for a good young PG (I know some people would go for Calderon; I don't think I would). I was intrigued with your 3-way earlier that would bring Teague from Atlanta along with Pau, while sending out Mo, Jefferson, and Millsap. But I really can't imagine the scenario in which Atlanta would go for that. So I think that while a trade (or trades) that brought in Gasol and a decent young PG and sent out Mo, Millsap, and Jefferson would be ideal, it's also highly unlikely to be do-able.

[HeavenHarris]

everyone wants a good young pg. they dont grow on trees ya know.
lol at getting teague. ya right bro. i dont love calderon but i support getting him unless you can name someone whos better yet still realistic.

[jazzfan1971]

"He's slow to rotate on pick and roll defense, as well as perimeter closeouts, and has been shockingly sedentary finishing around the rim offensively"

And he's owed about 20 mil next year.

Is this really the guy you want to hitch your wagon to? I know I don't. Did any of you watch the Jazz/Laker game this year? Gasol was a total non-factor. He looks washed up to me.

So, it's a no for me. Not even particularily close. I don't need Gasol when I have Jefferson, and I sure as hell don't need his salary next year when the Jazz are looking to have major cap room if they don't screw it up with a shortsighted move like this.

No.

Please no.

He's the Lakers problem now, let them deal with it.

[Eenie-Meenie]

Blackham, you still down on this trade, considering the latest news about Pau's injuries? It sounds like a long-term thing that could greatly reduce his level of play for the rest of his career.

[Revolution 9]

I could see Gasol leaving LA. The Lakers have a ton of pressure on them. They lost again last night, and continue to feel the heat.

I think the Lakers are in a position of weakness, and we need to get something for Sap or Big Al. If Gasol's injury isn't bad I think we should make our play soon. Getting Gasol on the downswing is risky, but it also has a high reward. If he returns to his old form we'd be much improved.

[Vermin]

What would it take to get devin Harris from Atlanta? He is only a few years removed from all star.

[orangello]

I have no interest in Pau unless Jeffersuck is being shipped out. I'm too worried that the Jazz will try and resign Jefferson and we will have one more year of Favors and Kanter playing under 20 minutes a game. That is simply unacceptable.

[Thee jazz fan]

Trading for Gasol means no major free agent signings, if it is correct that he will make 20 million next year.