What Is Gordon's Ceiling???

[AKMVP]

It all comes down to his shooting. He obviously has to raise his percentage, but also work on a faster release. 18/5/5 is probably where he'll max out at. Which would be damn good ROI for a 9th pick.

How do you guys see him averaging 5 ast? To me it looks impossible. Even last year when he had numerous chances for assists as he was handling ball more and had around 30 min a game he had 3.1 ast/game average. This year it dropped to 2 ast a game. He only had couple games with 8 ast which is his career high. Sorry but I just do not see him as great passer - decent yes, but not 5 or even 4 ast average. I think 3.5 ast/game is his maximum. For 5 ast he would need to play 38-40min a game and be dominant ball handler - what team on earth would let him do it?
And think about it, 18/5/5 - that's all star numbers - even AK never had that and I think you would agree that Hayward will never be as good as AK. Jeff Hornacek had it once 1992 ( his career year) - while playing 38min a game. Again I do not think Hayward can be as good as Hornacek in his best years. Manu Ginobili never had it either... thats a heck of a ceiling you trying to put for Gordon, I think more reasonable would be to expect 15/4/3.5.

[bordelais7]

Your normal height. Certainly not vaulted.

If I were Gordon Hayward, my ceiling would be a mirror.

[silesian]

Most players don't improve very much on their core skills after their 3 years. I don't think Hayward is going to become much more than he is now. He is a good useful player but never a star.

I'd like to challenge that a bit.....just look at one stat on the current Jazz roster to illustrate, ppg for those in the league more than 8 years.

Year 3 avg: 10.5
Year 4-8 avg: 14.1
Increase: 3.6 ppg or 34%
Notably: Mo: 12.1 to 17.4; Al: 16 to 20.5; Jamaal 8.3 to 12.4 (even look at Raja, 3.1 to 13.2)
6 of 7 players increased their scoring average
Exception: Marvin 14.8 to 11.2

Assuming average advancement for Hayward, he'll settle in around 18 ppg, I would not be too upset about that.

Perusing the rest of the league, I don't think the Jazz are outliers here. Also holds up perusing other non-scoring metrics. There is clearly improvement through year 3 and in some cases beyond.

[sojodave]

I think anyone can improve shooting and Gordon is known to be a hard worker. What concerns me is that he always seems unbalanced. I think that is what is wrong with his drives and this is why his shoot isn't always consistent. When he takes his time and gets his feet together and his shoulders squared, his shot looks much better. But because he has a slow release, he hurries his shot which causes him to be unbalanced. Anyone who has watched the Jazz the last two years has to admit that Ty has given more rope than any player. I get the sense that Ty is ready to shorten that rope unless he can improve his consistency.

[salo]

Why did the Jazz ever let AK go? He's been sorely missed at the 3. I bet this team is 14-6 with AK playing over Haywierd. 13-7 easily.

serious? this board would have gone into complete melt-down if we'd re-signed ak, especially at the $10 million he signed with the t'wolves for.

the comparison is reasonable though. he'll never see a max-contract like ak did, but his overall production and versatility is already similar to what we got out of andrei for most of his time here. i feel he is a better shooter than ak, though not quite the defender. if gordon handled the ball more than he currently does he could average 3-4 assists.

anyway, i'm not ready to give up on him just yet. should be a useful player for many seasons.

[NAOS]

serious? this board would have gone into complete melt-down if we'd re-signed ak, especially at the $10 million he signed with the t'wolves for.

the comparison is reasonable though. he'll never see a max-contract like ak did, but his overall production and versatility is already similar to what we got out of andrei for most of his time here. i feel he is a better shooter than ak, though not quite the defender. if gordon handled the ball more than he currently does he could average 3-4 assists.

anyway, i'm not ready to give up on him just yet. should be a useful player for many seasons.

No

[franklin]

serious? this board would have gone into complete melt-down if we'd re-signed ak, especially at the $10 million he signed with the t'wolves for.

mmmmmmmm

No

I'm on record saying AK was the only realistic solution at SF. His unpalatable contract made it too hard for Jazz fans to see his true value when everyone outside Utah knew what it was.

[NAOS]

I agree with you re:AK, but still say everybody had to move on. I thought that was your position too. Sorry for misrepresenting.

[franklin]

I agree with you re:AK, but still say everybody had to move on. I thought that was your position too. Sorry for misrepresenting.

It took me about 20 games into last season before throwing in the towel. It took all of five or seven this year before seeing the new additions wouldn't amount to anything special. How can they upgrade at every position and get worse (accounting for Kanter & Favors growth)? The offense is more dynamic too. Ahem Jazz.

[CitizenofCapua]

we are all getting numb to this with our grip of young players.

hayward, (the oldest of the 4) still has 6-7 MORE seasons until he's even in his prime. lots of room to improve.

This.

Dude is still 22 years old and he already meeting the expectations. I think he turn out to be top 5 player of his draft class and he will only get better with his attitude and work ethic. He got missing parts of his game he is not a consistent shooter cause we are an offensively inconsistent team. Our rotation is like Corbin's silly putty and that conducing inconsistent minutes and he dont have a certain role (well who has?) and he is making improvise plays. For a comprasion think of him at Spurs where everyone have certain roles and know what to do.

One question, if you had to pick between Evan Turner and Gordon Hayward on 2010 draft who would you pick? Dont forget Turner is already 24.

His ceiling; Manu, with worse fundamental but not a injury prone like him.

[NAOS]

It took me about 20 games into last season before throwing in the towel. It took all of five or seven this year before seeing the new additions wouldn't amount to anything special. How can they upgrade at every position and get worse (accounting for Kanter & Favors growth)? The offense is more dynamic too. Ahem Jazz.

Doesn't your question point to Corbin?

[franklin]

Doesn't your question point to Corbin?

Not necessarily.

Corbin doesn't control other teams getting better. That was grilled to blackness before the season.
Corbin doesn't make his players miss wide open shots.
Corbin has made every obvious offensive adjustment that he wasn't able to make with last season's personnel.
Corbin's offense is showing more dynamism every game.
I've liked the way Corbin has planned for each game separately. JF has hated him for it.

Corbin may never be in a situation where he can be fairly evaluated. Jazz need a go to player in the back court to do so.

[NAOS]

Not necessarily.

Corbin doesn't control other teams getting better. That was grilled to blackness before the season.
Corbin doesn't make his players miss wide open shots.
Corbin has made every obvious offensive adjustment that he wasn't able to make with last season's personnel.
Corbin's offense is showing more dynamism every game.
I've liked the way Corbin has planned for each game separately. JF has hated him for it.

Corbin may never be in a situation where he can be fairly evaluated. Jazz need a go to player in the back court to do so.

So... not entirely, but.... Yes

[Qman]

I'd like to challenge that a bit.....just look at one stat on the current Jazz roster to illustrate, ppg for those in the league more than 8 years.

Year 3 avg: 10.5
Year 4-8 avg: 14.1
Increase: 3.6 ppg or 34%
Notably: Mo: 12.1 to 17.4; Al: 16 to 20.5; Jamaal 8.3 to 12.4 (even look at Raja, 3.1 to 13.2)
6 of 7 players increased their scoring average
Exception: Marvin 14.8 to 11.2

Assuming average advancement for Hayward, he'll settle in around 18 ppg, I would not be too upset about that.

Perusing the rest of the league, I don't think the Jazz are outliers here. Also holds up perusing other non-scoring metrics. There is clearly improvement through year 3 and in some cases beyond.

If you look at Mo Williams points per 36 minutes

13.2 and 13.0 in his first two years. But jumps to 16.5 in his 3rd year and floats between a peak of 18.3 when he played with Lebron and back down to 15.2 this year.

Maybe instead of saying a number of years, saying 4000 NBA minutes is a better indicator.

Let's take Paul Millsap- an example of a tireless worker.

13.7 and 14.0 for the two first two years. He jumps to 16.2 in his 3rd. In his 5 season he improves again to 18.2.

Gordon had 11.5 and 14.0 in his first two. He has jumped to 17.2 in his 3rd.

Hayward has already made great strides in his career.

So Mo had a max increase in point per 36 of 5.3. Paul an increase of 4.2. Hayward has had a 5.7 increase.

I think Hayward is about as good as he is going to get.

[Xsy]

Gordon will definitely become a more balanced player. He still thinks too much. He'll get over it eventually.

I still think his ceiling can be 20/5/4.