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  1. #1
    Premium Member Twin Towers's Avatar
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    How reliable is +/- stats???

    http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusmi...it=9&team=Jazz

    Is this reliable??? I know it all depends on who is playing with who but why is our bench way better than the starters??
    Is this not a reliable way to look at players???

    When I look at player combinations I feel like certain players can get boosts from another but not really deserve that value.
    The same can be said with looking at just 1 player at a time but it seems that it would be more accurate.

    Is it possible Jefferson makes the starters all worse. I have no idea.

    Loved to get everyone's thoughts on these +/- stats.
    "The main ingredient of stardom is the rest of the team." - John Wooden

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  3. #2
    Senior Member orangello's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twin Towers View Post
    http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusmi...it=9&team=Jazz

    Is this reliable??? I know it all depends on who is playing with who but why is our bench way better than the starters??
    Is this not a reliable way to look at players???

    When I look at player combinations I feel like certain players can get boosts from another but not really deserve that value.
    The same can be said with looking at just 1 player at a time but it seems that it would be more accurate.

    Is it possible Jefferson makes the starters all worse. I have no idea.

    Loved to get everyone's thoughts on these +/- stats.
    If it was a one or two game sample then I don't think it is reliable. If it is taking about a quarter of the season them yes, there is a lot of truth to it.

    For me it just confirms what I am seeing out on the court.
    Quote Originally Posted by Biggs View Post
    So I was very mad about the game, but I wasn't going to vent here, because you guys all feel the same way. However, Ty's postgame interview got my blood boiling. On why he let Trey and Gordon play while having bad games, "You gotta let them battle through it because that's what you gotta do." Really are you kidding me. You have to balls to say that when you pulled Alec after 16 minutes against LAC and Kanter got 19 minutes toinght?

  4. #3
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    it is reliable since certain players always are in the minus.

    it is no accident jazz lead the league in 10+ point comeback win.
    01-21-2013
    I, HeavenHarris, hereby pledge to my fellow JFC'rs that I will no longer give out neg-reps. All it does is cause negative things, like fights, drama, bitching, ill will, bad feelings, etc.
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  5. #4
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    Last I checked into it, the standard error for someone who played about half the available minutes in a season was in the range of 3, and it is even even higher for people who play a lot of minutes, or very few minutes, or only partway into the season. So it's useful in a broad sense, but not a narrow one.
    .
    For example, in the table below (culled from the front page of 82games.com), there is no meaningful difference in the numbers of Favors and Jefferson, or Mo. Williams and Watson. This early in the season, the difference between Tinsley and Mo. Williams might be significant, but there is still a small, yet significant, possiblility the difference is due to random factors.
    .
    Player Min Net
    Tinsley 0.31 15.7
    Carroll 0.30 12.8
    Ma.Williams 0.48 5.4
    Kanter 0.31 5
    Hayward 0.56 3.3
    Evans 0.06 1.2
    Favors 0.36 -2.1
    Millsap 0.64 -2.9
    Jefferson 0.66 -4.4
    Mo.Williams 0.56 -7.7
    Foye 0.54 -10.2
    Watson 0.12 -11.5
    Burks 0.08 -14.7
    Murphy 0.01 -64.6
    http://lifetheuniverseandonebrow.blogspot.com/

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    Quote Originally Posted by One Brow View Post
    Last I checked into it, the standard error for someone who played about half the available minutes in a season was in the range of 3, and it is even even higher for people who play a lot of minutes, or very few minutes, or only partway into the season. So it's useful in a broad sense, but not a narrow one.
    .
    For example, in the table below (culled from the front page of 82games.com), there is no meaningful difference in the numbers of Favors and Jefferson, or Mo. Williams and Watson. This early in the season, the difference between Tinsley and Mo. Williams might be significant, but there is still a small, yet significant, possiblility the difference is due to random factors.
    .
    Player Min Net
    Tinsley 0.31 15.7
    Carroll 0.30 12.8
    Ma.Williams 0.48 5.4
    Kanter 0.31 5
    Hayward 0.56 3.3
    Evans 0.06 1.2
    Favors 0.36 -2.1
    Millsap 0.64 -2.9
    Jefferson 0.66 -4.4
    Mo.Williams 0.56 -7.7
    Foye 0.54 -10.2
    Watson 0.12 -11.5
    Burks 0.08 -14.7
    Murphy 0.01 -64.6
    We have to consider that our back-ups ply against back-ups much of the time. However, they do play against starters here or there as well. Having said that, and maybe I'm wrong in my way of thinking here, but Marvin Williams and Hayward are the most impressive to me. Their numbers are high despite the fact that they play a lot against starters and get a lot of minutes. Maybe I'm wrong but this is how I'm looking at it. And Kanter could/may be an anomaly as he's not playing the same type of minutes. Following this train of thought, Burks is terrible as he's so low despite getting minimal playing time. His God awful percentages may back up this notion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gyp Rosetti View Post
    We have to consider that our back-ups ply against back-ups much of the time. However, they do play against starters here or there as well. Having said that, and maybe I'm wrong in my way of thinking here, but Marvin Williams and Hayward are the most impressive to me. Their numbers are high despite the fact that they play a lot against starters and get a lot of minutes. Maybe I'm wrong but this is how I'm looking at it. And Kanter could/may be an anomaly as he's not playing the same type of minutes. Following this train of thought, Burks is terrible as he's so low despite getting minimal playing time. His God awful percentages may back up this notion.
    Hayward's number is bascially indistinguishable from 0, as is Burks and Murphy, because the sample size on-court is so small. For Millsap/Jefferson, the sample size off-court is also small. Only Tinsley, Carroll, and Williams seem to be close to significantly above zero, only Foye is close to significantly below it.
    http://lifetheuniverseandonebrow.blogspot.com/

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  8. #7
    Senior Member NUMBERICA's Avatar
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    It's AN indicator. It relies heavily on context. It needs the guidance of other stats and the eye test especially. But it is AN indicator. It's one of the more valuable stats, IMO. There's merit to the idea.
    Quote Originally Posted by every forum dreg
    I think he can play SF

  9. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUMBERICA View Post
    It's AN indicator. It relies heavily on context. It needs the guidance of other stats and the eye test especially. But it is AN indicator. It's one of the more valuable stats, IMO. There's merit to the idea.
    I agree. For better or worse, it's the only indicator that takes into account the complete effects a player has on the score of the game.
    http://lifetheuniverseandonebrow.blogspot.com/

    Isaiah 1:18 -- Come now, and let us reason together

    Any habitual action, such as eating or dressing, may be performed on the appropriate occasion, without any need of thought, and the same seems to be true of a painfully large proportion of our talk. -- Bertrand Russell

  10. #9
    Premium Member Twin Towers's Avatar
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    I think this shows that the starters are not getting it done.

    Could it be the starters all together they just suck??

    Could it be the combination of players (Jefferson and Millsap playing together as an example...)

    Whatever the reason something needs to change. Corbin's decision making has been horrible in terms of who plays with who.

    Foye should only be playing 15-20 minutes a game. Jefferson and Millsap need to be separated. Would prefer Jefferson to be just traded.

    I love Burks energy on the court and how he attacks the basket. He should be playing 15-20 minutes a game also.

    I just want a pass first point guard who can hit the open 3. Jose Calderon is who I personally like. Would be happy to trade Jefferson for him.
    "The main ingredient of stardom is the rest of the team." - John Wooden

  11. #10
    Senior Member Weezur's Avatar
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    Randy Foye is 2x worse than the second worse +/- (which is either Mo Williams or Marvin)

  12. #11
    Senior Member Jazz4ever's Avatar
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    What's strange is Millsap is having a bad year with this metric but has always been a +/- champion. He is at -3.8 this year after being +11 last year. Jefferson too, was very good last year at +8.4 and is currently at an appalling -6.5 this year. Someone pointed out how well they worked together last year, a bromance if you will, that is completely absent this year. One would think surrounding them with three point shooters like Mo and Marvin would open up their games but it has not seemed to work at all. Its either a chemistry issue or free agency is weighing heavily on their minds, which I'm not sure.

  13. #12
    Premium Member Twin Towers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jazz4ever View Post
    What's strange is Millsap is having a bad year with this metric but has always been a +/- champion. He is at -3.8 this year after being +11 last year. Jefferson too, was very good last year at +8.4 and is currently at an appalling -6.5 this year. Someone pointed out how well they worked together last year, a bromance if you will, that is completely absent this year. One would think surrounding them with three point shooters like Mo and Marvin would open up their games but it has not seemed to work at all. Its either a chemistry issue or free agency is weighing heavily on their minds, which I'm not sure.
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  14. #13
    Senior Member LunaticWolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twin Towers View Post
    I know it all depends on who is playing with who but why is our bench way better than the starters??
    Is this not a reliable way to look at players???
    Or against who.

    Last night Favors played 14:27 against Lamar and Turiaf, and 4:45 against the starters. He was +12.

    Not to give the starters a free pass though, They can't seem to run the offense to save their lives.
    "Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed." - Dwight D. Eisenhower

  15. #14
    Senior Member Lion's Roar's Avatar
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    #1 It shows where teams are making runs. Jazz are making comebacks with their subs and being beat with the starters.

    #2 In a team like Utah where 1st unit and 2nd unit are almost mutually exlcusive you can't use +/- to compare players cause starters and subs face such different opposition.

    #3 If the numbers hold for the season you could say that the Jazz 1st unit is bellow league average while the bench unit is above league average.

    #4 In a game-by-game setting it's pretty much pointless. It only becomes an issue when trends emerge. Basically in a game setting it helps you establish a sense of a recap trough the boxscore and little else.

  16. #15
    Premium Member Twin Towers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LunaticWolf View Post
    Or against who.

    Last night Favors played 14:27 against Lamar and Turiaf, and 4:45 against the starters. He was +12.

    Not to give the starters a free pass though, They can't seem to run the offense to save their lives.
    So true. I feel bad for Millsap though. He just stands there watching Jefferson play 1 on 1. No plays are ran for him anymore. Doesn't excuse his bad defense or lack of boxing out or pointless fouls. lol

    But if we keep Jefferson past this year I will no longer watch the Jazz. I couldn't watch Jefferson ruin Kanter and Favors.
    "The main ingredient of stardom is the rest of the team." - John Wooden

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