Tracking the Jazz in the Hollinger Playoff Odds

[JimLes]

PER is nothing more than a good example of confirmation bias. Its actual superiority over a simple +/- number or European style production index has not been established.

[franklin]

2/5/13: Jazz record is 27-22. The Hollinger Playoff Odds say the Jazz go 14-19 the rest of the way to finish 41-41.

"What you little pencil neck? I'll crush your predictions"

[LunaticWolf]

2/6/13: Expected final record now up at 42-40. Jazz narrowly miss the playoffs, losing the tie-breaker to the Lakers.

It sorts by chance to make the playoffs.

Jazz still make in that scenario.

[orangello]

"What you little pencil neck? I'll crush your predictions"

I tried to rep you but I must spread some first.

[LunaticWolf]

I'm curious to see how accurate the Hollinger Playoff Odds will be for Jazz. So I'm going to keep track of how accurately the system predicts the record of the remaining games for the Jazz. There's not really much point to this, but the same could be said of many threads here.

2/5/13: Jazz record is 27-22. The Hollinger Playoff Odds say the Jazz go 14-19 the rest of the way to finish 41-41.


http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

If you really want to track it you should put the record every day in an excel sheet, and graph it at the end of the season.

[nightmare3983]

The Jazz own the tie breaker with the Lakers. How do they lose?

It sorts by chance to make the playoffs.

Jazz still make in that scenario.

If I understand correctly, out of the 5000 simulated seasons, the Lakers ended up making the playoffs more than the Jazz, even though they're both projected to go 42-40. Maybe that means the Jazz had a few more very good seasons than the Lakers but also had more bad ones while the Lakers were more consistent in the simulations.

[Jazz4ever]

I'm liking the Tankers only have a 90% chance - and that's assuming Curry and Bogut remain healthy.

[colton]

Jazz now projected to win tiebreaker over Lakers and get the 8th seed

[nightmare3983]

Jazz now projected to win tiebreaker over Lakers and get the 8th seed

Given the injuries piling up in La-La land, it will be impressive if the Lakers can get into the playoffs. But I really hope it doesn't happen.

[NUMBERICA]

It sorts by chance to make the playoffs.

Jazz still make in that scenario.

Thrilling. That extra week of games is definitely a better outcome than a vastly improved chance at a key piece (PG).

[nightmare3983]

I'm liking the Tankers only have a 90% chance - and that's assuming Curry and Bogut remain healthy.

It's down to 87.4% now.

[nightmare3983]

Bump to keep this from getting too buried.

[orangello]

Bump to keep this from getting too buried.

And where are the Jazz sitting? I can't imagine losing two games in a row helping the chances of making the playoffs.

[orangello]

I would like to add that the Jazz have played more games than Portland and yet are only two games ahead of them.

If the Jazz don't close out this month strong I see them missing the playoffs. The games that remain for February are:

H vs OKC
A vs Minnesota
H vs GS
A vs LAC
H vs Boston
H vs Atlanta

That doesn't look promising. I just hope they at least beat GS to help that pick.

[Weezur]

I just can't see the Jazz winning with Tinsley and Watson. Nobody even has to guard them. It's unheard of. I've never seen a guard in the NBA that you can completely leave wide open and still have that player brick a shot. Never. It's pathetic. I know I'm beating up a dead horse, but I don't think we're getting to the playoffs with dinosaur guards. The Houston game exposed this weakness and I'm very well surprised that we're even close to winning some of these games.