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  1. #31
    Senior Member GVC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by green View Post
    I meant to say Favors and Al together is a terrible defensive combination. Favors is dominate near the hoop, but when Al is on the floor, Favors has to go away from the hoop and he doesn't defend well out there at all.
    per NBA.com, Jazz lineups featuring Al and Favors give up 111.8 points per 100 possessions. The worst defensive team in the league by this measure is the Sacramento Kings, giving up 107.7 points per 100 possessions.

    Lineups featuring Millsap and Favors give up 101.1 points per 100 possessions, which is the same amount given up by the Bucks, the 8th best defense in the league.
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  2. #32
    Premium Member QuinSnydersHair's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by green View Post
    Its remarkable and sad to think how good we could be if we didn't have Al and had a decent coach. With Sloan and minus Al, we are a top 4 team.
    Yeah, because Sloan was always the man at making the tough decisions over the last five years or so of his career.
    Originally Posted by DutchJazzer
    i might be the first retard in the internet then...cam on the internet in 1993 :P

  3. #33
    Senior Member Lion's Roar's Avatar
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    Carl Landry is being paid $4M. David West got a 2 year $20M contract, Illiasova and Anderson got contracts at $8M a year. Chris Kaman $8M one year. Yet ppl think it's a good idea to pay Millsap $12M a year for 4 years. Really?

    Sometimes when I get mad at the FO I just remind myself what would be if the fans were running the team.

  4. #34
    Senior Member GVC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lion's Roar View Post
    Carl Landry is being paid $4M. David West got a 2 year $20M contract, Illiasova and Anderson got contracts at $8M a year. Chris Kaman $8M one year. Yet ppl think it's a good idea to pay Millsap $12M a year for 4 years. Really?

    Sometimes when I get mad at the FO I just remind myself what would be if the fans were running the team.
    Millsap is better than all those players except maybe David West, who signed with Indiana after tearing his ACL at 30. I'd be worried about giving Millsap anything above $10mm per year, but if you frontload a deal and include a 15% signing bonus, he'll probably be productive enough over the next few years to move if/when necessary.
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  5. #35
    Senior Member GVC's Avatar
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    As discussed previously, I wouldn't mind a front-loaded 5-year, $50mm contract with $7.5mm signing bonus for Millsap. This would help the Jazz get their payroll to 90% of the cap (which isn't actually required) next season AND make Millsap look pretty attractive to opposing teams after year 2. The year-by-year salary and cap hit:


    Year: Salary / Cap Hit

    13/14: $17.5mm / $11.50mm
    14/15: $9.25mm / $10.75mm
    15/16: $8.50mm / $10.00mm
    16/17: $7.75mm / $9.250mm
    17/18: $7.00mm / $8.500mm


    So, if the Jazz had/wanted to trade Millsap after year 2 (when Burks and Kanter will need new contracts), the team acquiring Millsap would be on the hook for only $23.25mm of salary and $27.75mm of cap hit over 3 years (an average of $7.75mm and $9.25mm respectively). That's pretty reasonable for a player of Millsap's caliber.
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  6. #36
    Senior Member Lion's Roar's Avatar
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    Is Millsap better than Ilyasova or Anderson? Cause they posted PER's of 20.6 and 21.5 (or whatever) in their contract years. They rebounded as well if not better than Paul and guess what they can shoot 3's in bunches and in the new NBA stretch 4's are really a hot commodity and yet with all these things they couldn't get anywhere near $12M a year. We're talking about a 50% pay raise for someone that had equivalent or worse seasons than they had. Your take on contracts with raises and things like that is cool but the Jazz cash flow would be severely hampered by those terms. Small market teams only pay signing bonus when they absolutely have to. Most likely it would mean getting a loan to put forth $7.5M in one day.

  7. #37
    Senior Member Broncster's Avatar
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    So I went looking for the stats you had but then adding in post Jan 1st and could not find them but I looked at NBA's new advanced stats and something stood out to me.

    When I compared Jefferson to Millsap offensively it showed that most of Jeffersons shots are mid ranged and he hits them at a 41% rate. Millsap on the other hand shoots mid ranged jumpers at a 35% rate. Jefferson in the paint but not restricted area shoots 46% while Millsap shoots 38%. In the restricted area is where most of Millsaps shots are taken and made and here he shoots 65% while Jefferson shoots at 64%. So Millsap is much better at getting to the rim for dunks and layups but Jefferson is a much better jump shooter. Then when you switch it to clutch times Jefferson shoot a much higher percentage at the rim and slightly better at mid ranged but percentages go down when he is in the paint but not restricted area. Millsaps shots at the rim go down to 54% in the clutch but his mid range and inside the paint but not at the rim percentages go way up.

    shooting percentages: Jefferson normal/ Jefferson clutch/ Millsap normal/ Millsap clutch
    Restricted area 64, 78 ,65,54
    Inside the paint
    (but not restricted) 46,29,38,43
    Mid ranged 41,42,35,46

    When you compare them to each other on off court there is some interesting things.

    Millsap is responsible for more points when Jefferson is on the court. it goes from 24% of teams points to 23% when Jefferson is on the bench (you would think it would be the other way around)
    Jefferson shoots a higher percentage when Millsap is on the bench and not on the court.
    Millsap shoots a lower percentage when Jefferson is on the bench. (seems Jefferson take pressure of Millsap?)
    Both of them Rebound a much worse percentage of teams rebounds when the other is on the bench (Kanter and Favors are probably much better at rebounding than both of them)
    They have a +/- of -1.2 playing together but Jeffersons get worse when Millsap leaves and Millsaps gets better when Jefferson leaves (what stats above show)

  8. #38
    Senior Member GVC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lion's Roar View Post
    Is Millsap better than Ilyasova or Anderson? Cause they posted PER's of 20.6 and 21.5 (or whatever) in their contract years. They rebounded as well if not better than Paul and guess what they can shoot 3's in bunches and in the new NBA stretch 4's are really a hot commodity and yet with all these things they couldn't get anywhere near $12M a year. We're talking about a 50% pay raise for someone that had equivalent or worse seasons than they had. Your take on contracts with raises and things like that is cool but the Jazz cash flow would be severely hampered by those terms. Small market teams only pay signing bonus when they absolutely have to. Most likely it would mean getting a loan to put forth $7.5M in one day.
    1. I think PER is garbage.

    2. Yes, I do think Millsap has a greater positive impact on the basketball court than either Ilyasova or Anderson. It might not be by much though, and the Jazz might luck out this summer with Millsap. We'll have to wait and see what the market for his services is like this summer.

    3. The Jazz have a meager payroll next season. Further, they showed a willingness to pay a bunch upfront despite a high payroll when they matched the offer sheet Paul signed with Portland 4 years ago (they had to pay him roughly $10mm up front). I don't see why they wouldn't consider it, especially since they're going to have to have a payroll of at least 90% of the cap, and I'm sure they'd rather pay the players they pay in salary than by cutting a check at the end of the season and hurting their longterm flexibility.
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  10. #39
    Senior Member Broncster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVC View Post
    2. Yes, I do think Millsap has a greater positive impact on the basketball court than either Ilyasova or Anderson. It might not be by much though, and the Jazz might luck out this summer with Millsap. We'll have to wait and see what the market for his services is like this summer.
    Lots of experts are saying that this will be a rough FA year since teams are really worried about cap space. So unless its an elite player (cp3 and howard) who will get max the rest are going to get less than they want.

  11. #40
    Senior Member NUMBERICA's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lion's Roar View Post
    Is Millsap better than Ilyasova or Anderson? Cause they posted PER's of 20.6 and 21.5 (or whatever) in their contract years.
    I didn't read past this. Millsap has been producing at the level he is this year for most of his career. To answer your first question, he is, has been, and likely will continue to be (much?) better than both of those players.
    Quote Originally Posted by Eenie-Meenie View Post
    I've never stalked anyone in my life, including any of my girl friends.

  12. #41
    Senior Member NUMBERICA's Avatar
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    Does anyone think the Jazz are aware of these facts, BTW?
    Quote Originally Posted by Eenie-Meenie View Post
    I've never stalked anyone in my life, including any of my girl friends.

  13. #42
    In pursuit of #9 PKM's Avatar
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    This thread has been a rare joy to read. Props to all.
    #dumptruckin

  14. #43
    Senior Member Catchall's Avatar
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    I think you need to do one with Favors playing w and w/o both Al and Sap. The story to me is that when Al is off the floor, and Millsap is on the floor, that means most often that Favors is on the floor.

    I am one who thinks Millsap is undersized, can't defend longer or equal-to-greater athletic players, and can't keep such players off the boards, etc.

    I'm going to bet that our Per48 is best when both Al and Sap are off the floor.

    In other words, the argument makes sense, but the scope is too narrow.

  15. #44
    Senior Member GVC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Catchall View Post
    I'm going to bet that our Per48 is best when both Al and Sap are off the floor.
    So you didn't actually read/look at the first post.

    Over the 3 years, the full ranking in +/- per48 is:

    1. Millsap w/o Al (+8.2)
    2. Millsap + Al (+0.4)
    3. Al w/o Millsap (-4.2)
    4. w/ neither (-5.5)
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  16. #45
    Senior Member GVC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Catchall View Post
    The story to me is that when Al is off the floor, and Millsap is on the floor, that means most often that Favors is on the floor.
    No ****, Sherlock. Favors gets the third most big man minutes. This is even more true of Jefferson than Millsap, as Al has only played 26 minutes with Kanter this season.
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