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  1. #1
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    Marvin, Carroll, Hayward and Jamaal, Earl, Burks - Do statistics back up your eyeballs?

    I think most of us have complained quite a lot recently about the lack of PT for Demarre, the fact that Marvin hasn't been exiled to Siberia, and the constant assertion that Watson or Tinsley should be playing backup PG minutes over Burks. I got curious, and decided to look at the stats from Basketball Reference to see how they relate to what I see when I actually watch the games. I'm looking at player efficiency rating, true shooting percentage, offensive rating, defensive rating, win shares, and win shares/48 as measures.

    Hopefully this is somewhat enlightening.

    First, Marvin, Carroll, and Hayward:

    Marvin Williams
    PER 10.2
    TS .521
    ORTG 102
    DRTG 109
    WS 1.3
    WS/48 .049

    Demarre Carroll
    PER 16.7
    TS .548
    ORTG 119
    DRTG 106
    WS 2.6
    WS/48 .149

    Gordon Hayward
    PER 16.8
    TS .556
    ORTG 110
    DRTG 110
    WS 2.8
    WS/48 .110

    I think this is pretty clear. Marvin is having the worst season of his career and honestly, he's been awful. A TS% of .521 for a guy who shoots almost entirely threes is terrible and from his PER, Ortg and Drtg it's evident he's not impacting the floor at all while he's out there. The fact that he's averaging more minutes than Carroll is criminal. Seriously, Carroll should consider suing Corbin for defamation and criminal negligence for damaging his future value.

    Jamaal Tinsley
    PER 10.7
    TS .458
    ORTG 96
    DRTG 108
    WS .7
    WS/48 .031

    Earl Watson
    PER 8.4
    TS .380
    ORTG 93
    DRTG 108
    WS .3
    WS/48 .02

    Alec Burks
    PER 11.1
    TS .499
    ORTG 99
    DRTG 110
    WS .5
    WS/48 .038

    Considering how poorly Burks started the season the fact that he's already caught up to both Earl and Tinsley in every singe category but defensive rating (although his ortg and drtg differential is better) is kind of astounding. When you factor in that Burks is 21 while both Tinsley and Earl will probably strongly consider retirement after this season, it's pretty bad.

    Anyways, just thought some of you might find this interesting and kind of confirm and quantify how you feel about Corbin's idiotic rotations and inexplicable player preferences.
    Last edited by mhindy; 02-24-2013 at 07:11 PM.

  2. #2
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    What are those stats? Other than per I am not familiar with the abbreviations.

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    TS = True Shooting
    True shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

    Drtg = Defensive Rating
    Defensive Rating is points allowed per 100 possessions on the court

    Ortg = Offensive Rating
    Offensive Rating is points scored per 100 possessions on the court

    WS = Win Shares
    an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player, you can read more about it at this link http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

    WS/48 is just making this proportional to minutes played.

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    So, what you are trying to say is that Hayward and Carroll > Marvelous, and Burks is > Watson or Tinsley? Whodathunkit? LMAO

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    demarre has mad WS, yo.

    seriously though, who has the best WS in the league?

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    Quote Originally Posted by zman1527 View Post
    So, what you are trying to say is that Hayward and Carroll > Marvelous, and Burks is > Watson or Tinsley? Whodathunkit? LMAO
    All I'm really trying to show here is that every single relevant measure shows the same thing. It's not that Corbin has any justification, it's that he's legitimately an idiot.

    Demarre may well have diminishing returns of sorts (in fact, I highly suspect this is the case), meaning that he will somewhat regress at least on a per minute basis playing more than 15-20 minutes per game, but I'm showing here that he'd have to regress a **** of a lot to come even close to Marvin's level of incompetence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mhindy View Post
    All I'm really trying to show here is that every single relevant measure shows the same thing. It's not that Corbin has any justification, it's that he's legitimately an idiot.

    Demarre may well have diminishing returns of sorts (in fact, I highly suspect this is the case), meaning that he will somewhat regress at least on a per minute basis playing more than 15-20 minutes per game, but I'm showing here that he'd have to regress a **** of a lot to come even close to Marvin's level of incompetence.
    Agreed. Corbin has no cojones so he just chooses the easy way out, play the vets.

  9. #8
    Senior Member Jazz4ever's Avatar
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    Win shares is just a tweaked PER stat, relying heavily on box score stats. Most just use PER due to its simplicity. Carroll definitely needs more time over not so marvelous Marvin.

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    I was more interested in the ws/48 stat. I just wanted to show how wide that gap really is.

  11. #10
    Senior Member jope's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hhhhkau View Post
    demarre has mad WS, yo.

    seriously though, who has the best WS in the league?
    Win Shares
    1. LeBron James-MIA 13.5
    2. Kevin Durant-OKC 13.5
    3. James Harden-HOU 9.4
    4. Chris Paul-LAC 8.9
    5. Tony Parker-SAS 8.8
    6. Tyson Chandler-NYK 8.2
    7. Blake Griffin-LAC 7.9
    8. Kobe Bryant-LAL 7.9
    9. Marc Gasol-MEM 7.7
    10. Russell Westbrook-OKC 7.6
    11. David West-IND 6.9
    12. George Hill-IND 6.9
    13. Paul George-IND 6.8
    14. Dwyane Wade-MIA 6.6
    15. Chris Bosh-MIA 6.4
    16. Tiago Splitter-SAS 6.4
    17. David Lee-GSW 6.4
    18. Stephen Curry-GSW 6.2
    19. Al Horford-ATL 6.1
    20. Carmelo Anthony-NYK 6.1

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