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The value of finishing in the bottom 5

Douchebag K said:
clearly it was before he left SA you yankee doodle dandeeeeeee


anyway the dog buttt thing is Rubashovituphisarse projecting
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So it was for 2 years of his career. Seems legit.
 
Douchebag K said:
dude i didn't see any injury notes on your question It's just a thought exercise Didn't your parents ever teach you nobody likes a smart arse ??

****ing killjoy
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We all have a choice in this life, I chose to be a smartass. You obviously chose to be a dumbass.
 
LogGrad98 said:
We all have a choice in this life, I chose to be a smartass. You obviously chose to be a dumbass.
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i'm not used to being out - smartarsed you're just dropping down a notch in rankings Before this you were cool enough to be called a **** Now you're just a lowly knuckle dragging smart arse
 
idiot said:
We're hoping that a bottom-5 finish allows us to draft up a player who can eventually become the top player on a championship team for us. Though it's hard to think soberly about this with the narrative that tanking is self-evidently the best path to a championship (or only path for small markets?), it might be worth a reminder of how unlikely this is (having a drafted player from a bottom-5 finish lead the team he is drafted on and had that bottom-5 finish to a championship -- without returning in free agency, like Lebron).

Let's take a look at what bottom-5 finishes have given to teams over the past 25 years (since the 2000 draft). This encompasses about 128 bottom-5 finishes (since there were a few ties for 5th in that period). It also encompasses 60 "episodes" of bottom 5 finishes (which could include a single year, or multiple years in close succession finishing bottom-5):
  • 1 player drafted because of the bottom-5 finish led his team to (just a single) championship as the best player on the team (D. Wade -- drafted 22 years ago; it hasn't happened since, though maybe Wemby has the best chance among those who still fit the criteria)
  • 4 players drafted became the best player on a Finals-losing team (Luka, Lebron, Durant, Dwight -- only one of them drafted in the past 17 years)
  • 2 players were the 2nd-best player on Finals winners (Kyrie, D. Wade in the Heattles era)
  • 5 additional players became the best player on a conference finals loser (including Deron Williams)
  • Only 22 total became the best player on a playoff team of any kind with the team that drafted them (about 17%)
  • Out of the 60 bottom-5 episodes, in 19 of these (or nearly 1/3 of all such episodes) no player(s) drafted even went to the playoffs with the team that drafted them
We can enjoy the tank race all we want, but it might be better for our sanity if we don't have unrealistic expectations for what it will produce.
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So what's the alternative path to winning a Championship then?

Trading for a Luka?

Maybe enticing a Durant in the offseason to sign here?
 
bigmike said:
Of course, a top 5 finish is no guarantee of getting a bona-fide #1 guy on a championship team.

But in this year's draft, IMO there's a clear-cut top 5, all of whom I think will turn into high-impact guys and probably would have gone #1 last year. Flagg is in his own tier.

The way I look at it, we have a 67% chance of getting one of those guys based on where we currently sit which I feel pretty good about. IMO, finishing #6 would be a huge let down, and finishing #7 would be flat out devastating.
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Oh yeah, "this time is different!"

There is simply no precedent for all top 5 draftees to turn-out into consistent high-impact players if you look at the draft history. And I am talking about top 5 drafted in June, not who was considered the top-5 in March.

Just to illustrate, here are the duds from the top-5:

2010 - Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, Wesley Johnson
2011- Derrick Williams, Enes Kanter, Tristan Thompson, Valanciunas (achieved nothing in his first 7 seasons and got traded by his original team)
2013 - Bennet, Otto Porter Jr., Cody Zeller, Alex Len
2014 - Jabari Parker, Dante Exum
2015 - Okafor, Hezonja
2016 - Bender, Dunn
2017 - Fultz, Josh Jackson, Lonzo Ball (due to injuries)
2018 - Ayton, Bagley
2019 - De'Andre Hunter
2020 - Wiseman, Patrick Williams, Okoro

You can keep telling yourself that all top 5 draftees will turn out to be impact players but the experience tells us that most likely two of them will end up being duds, i.e. unremarkable, middle-of-the road players or worse.
 
JimLes said:
Maybe the Jazz don't need to win a championship for me to get something out of being a fan. Or maybe I'm just crazy.
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Maybe you don’t want to win one, that’s up to you.

But the Jazz organization had made it pretty clear that it wants to win one via numerous press conferences and interviews. And it would do everything in its powers to reach that goal.
 
The Midnight said:
But the Jazz organization had made it pretty clear that it wants to win one via numerous press conferences and interviews. And it would do everything in its powers to reach that goal.
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Oh, no. A sports organization saying "we're here to win!" That means they mean business.
 
JimLes said:
Oh, no. A sports organization saying "we're here to win!" That means they mean business.
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And their recent commitment to tank (sitting Lauri for 6th straight game at the time of writing this) even though it’s likely costing them $$$$, and a potential fine is what?

A stunt to show the world how bad our team could be?
 
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