I'd also point to the Utah Jazz as an example of how the traditional theory of defense can still work. Because of Rudy Gobert's ability to protect the rim, the other Jazz defenders have been able to stay home on shooters and force opponents to take lower-value shots. Utah has the league's third-lowest opponent shot quality and has tied with the New York Knicks for the worst opponent shot-making relative to shot quality, producing the league's best shot defense overall.
That brings us to our second question.
"How important is an elite on-ball defender relative to a rim protector?"
-- Ed M.
This year's Defensive Player of the Year debate seems to have centered on Gobert vs. Ben Simmons, two players who fill different roles for their teams' defenses. While the Jazz try to keep Gobert around the basket as much as possible, the Philadelphia 76ers deploy Simmons as a stopper, leveraging his ability to defend far smaller opponents at 6-foot-10 to use him against the best threat on the other team regardless of position.
When it comes to assessing player types, I like to use adjusted plus-minus data because it doesn't require any assumptions or carry any biases. It's just asking whether the team is better with the player on the court. When we look at the five-year version of regularized adjusted plus-minus on NBAshotcharts.com, which tends not to be as noisy as single-year versions, rim protectors filter to the top on defense:
Best Defensive RAPM, Past Five Seasons
PLAYER DRAPM RIMD STEAL% OPPUSG
Rudy Gobert 4.4 1 302 127
Giannis Antetokounmpo 3.6 3 77 297
Joel Embiid 3.0 11 236 263
Robert Covington 3.0 238 14 39
Jimmy Butler 2.9 226 8 25
Jusuf Nurkic 2.7 24 132 195
Andre Roberson 2.6 134 73 14
Justise Winslow 2.6 105 137 61
Paul George 2.6 220 28 86
Anthony Davis 2.6 29 57 174
Via NBAshotcharts.com
I've also included where these 10 ranked among the group of 384 players to see at least 2,500 minutes since 2016-17 in three other metrics to divide them into roles:
Opponent shooting percentage as a primary defender at the rim, via Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats
Steal rate from Stathead.com
Average usage rate of opponent matchups from Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats box scores (only available since 2017-18)
Half of the top 10 players in defensive RAPM over this span, as well as the top three, are primarily valuable because of their rim protection. The rest generally provide a mix of disruptive and on-ball defense (Jimmy Butler, Robert Covington and Paul George, although the quality of Covington's on-ball defense is more debatable). Only Andre Roberson made the top 10 primarily on his ability to shut down high-usage scorers. Justise Winslow's defensive value is more difficult to place based on these measures.
It's evident that at the extremes, rim protectors generally have more impact than even the best on-ball defenders like Simmons who also contribute a high steal rate. (He's just outside the top 10 there this season, while ranking 46th in highest opponent usage rate.) From that standpoint, it's fair to wonder whether we're actually debating Gobert vs. the right Sixers player.
Philadelphia's defensive success has been driven primarily by lineups with both Embiid and Simmons, which rank in the 98th percentile among qualifying lineups defensively according to Cleaning the Glass. Lineups with only Simmons rank in the 58th percentile defensively. (Shockingly, lineups with only Embiid rank in the 18th percentile, though that sample is naturally much smaller and seems to feature fluky 3-point shooting.)
Meanwhile, the Jazz have depended heavily on Gobert after swapping out defense for offense in 2019-20, when they went to a smaller starting lineup with Bojan Bogdanovic at power forward. Despite upgrading their backup center spot with the return of Derrick Favors, Utah has allowed 11.1 points per 100 possessions fewer with Gobert on the court according to NBA Advanced Stats -- a larger differential than in either of Gobert's previous two Defensive Player of the Year campaigns.
To me, Gobert is a clear choice as this year's winner.
www.espn.com
