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Long post coming up... but I decided to put this on paper for myself to see pros and cons for different paths.

First off top 5 is really out of the question as is going for a chip... so our options are:

1) Full tank, offload vets without getting any playable guys in return and maximize current draft position and future assets: Lottery odds in 6-7 range
2) Semi-tank, offload key vets but try to get playable young guys (and picks): Lottery odds in 8-10 range (Lauri, Kessler, Ochai and Sexton likely prevent us from dropping lower than that)
3) Stay opportunistic, worst case get eliminated in play-in: Lottery odds in 11-14 range. Best case we end up where option #2 or #4 would lead us without pushing it:
4) Trade for upgrades and try to make the playoffs: Pick likely in 15-22 range, unless there is an unlikely series win. Not "win now" level investment, but clear buyer trades still.

So the list below has notes with + indicating best for this aspect, - indicating worst for this aspect and N means noteworthy but not best or worst. Please give me your thoughts about it

Notes for #1:
+ Best case is 37% odds for top 4 and 9% odds for #1 (6th in lottery odds)
+ We maximize our draft assets this way
N We give most playing time for all the young guys that we end up keeping. However this is not the best option for youth minutes (option #2 is).
- Silver is watching, and I doubt we would get away with blatant tanking
- Lauri and Kessler development suffers the most with dumping the vets
- We would have to sell at the worst value (as long as we sell them)
- We would end up only having players we dont want to trade away or who are not worth anything in packages, which limits our future trade options
- Likely worst on cap space planning, as would probably contain taking in unwanted contracts

Notes for #2:
+ We might find some new keepers from trading vets if we get young guys back, and we do this without "paying for them" (like in option #4, which is still better for finding future starters)
+ We get best youth minutes with this option
N We dont have to force offload and likely end up keeping some players with trade value for offseason
N Lottery odds for top 4 are still around 20%, which is twice as good as they would be in play-in. However only 1.2 teams in two years from this range reach top 4 according to the odds.
N We still get positive return on draft assets
N Lottery odds essentially mean 1 team every other year reaches top 4. Most likely pick is in that same 8-10 ranges as lottery odds, which means top talent is out of reach

Notes for #3:
+ We trade with best value and get to be picky what deals we choose
+ We can still end up in path #2 or #4 (so outside of play in and in playoffs) with this approach
+ Best option for future salary cap planning as we can plan our moves based on that without pushing either way
N We will have very low odds for top 4 in lottery. Still guaranteed 11-14 though (good players are also quite often found here)
- We might end up not making any trades, which prevents us from finding new potential keepers or starters

Notes for #4:
+ Best for information about where we are right now and what we need going forward
+ Lets us evaluate how well Lauri and Kessler (and others) fair in the playoffs, confirming (or questionning) the investment in them
+ Hardys system goes through the 7 game series test and we see if it holds water
+ Best option for development of Lauri and Kessler (keeping maximum talent around them)
+ Likeliest option to find us more future starters (targeted upgrade trades are more likely to be better than project youngsters)
+ Gives us the best pool of players to work with in the offseason
- We will not be able to add top talent through draft with our own pick at least
- Worst for youth minutes and Ochai and Sexton development for instance
- Worst for future draft assets
- Market prices are high so targeted upgrades might end up costly (risky if they dont fit)
 
Last edited:
After thinking this through I would be cool with anything but #1... unless I'm missing something on my notes.

All other paths have merit. #4 was my favourite earlier but since the markets seem to be very overpriced it could be better to only try and be competitive if there is an opportunity (meaning choosing #3). Only risk #3 has is we dont do any moves.. but I dont think that will be the case since we have so clear incompatible pieces and this has been a year where our #1 goal has been to evaluate the roster.
 
HermanG said:
Long post coming up... but I decided to put this on paper for myself to see pros and cons for different paths.

First off top 5 is really out of the question... so our options are:

1) Full tank, offload vets without getting any playable guys in return and maximize current draft position and future assets: Lottery odds in 6-7 range
2) Semi-tank, offload key vets but try to get playable young guys (and picks): Lottery odds in 8-10 range (Lauri, Kessler, Ochai and Sexton likely prevent us from dropping lower than that)
3) Stay opportunistic, worst case get eliminated in play-in: Lottery odds in 11-14 range. Best case we end up where option #2 or #4 would lead us without pushing it:
4) Upgrade and try to make the playoffs: Pick likely in 15-22 range, unless there is an unlikely series win

So the list below has notes with + indicating best for this aspect, - indicating worst for this aspect and N means noteworthy but not best or worst. Please give me your thoughts about it

Notes for #1:
+ Best case is 37% odds for top 4 and 9% odds for #1 (6th in lottery odds)
+ We maximize our draft assets this way
N We give most playing time for all the young guys that we end up keeping. However this is not the best option for youth minutes (option #2 is).
- Silver is watching, and I doubt we would get away with blatant tanking
- Lauri and Kessler development suffers the most with dumping the vets
- We would have to sell at the worst value (as long as we sell them)
- We would end up only having players we dont want to trade away or who are not worth anything in packages, which limits our future trade options
- Likely worst on cap space planning, as would probably contain taking in unwanted contracts

Notes for #2:
+ We might find some new keepers from trading vets if we get young guys back, and we do this without "paying for them" (like in option #4, which is still better for finding future starters)
+ We get best youth minutes with this option
N We dont have to force offload and likely end up keeping some players with trade value for offseason
N Lottery odds for top 4 are still around 20%, which is twice as good as they would be in play-in. However only 1.2 teams in two years from this range reach top 4 according to the odds.
N We still get positive return on draft assets
- Lottery odds essentially mean 1 team every other year reaches top 4. Most likely pick is in that same 8-10 ranges as lottery odds, which means top talent is out of reach

Notes for #3:
+ We trade with best value and get to be picky what deals we choose
+ We can still end up in path #2 or #4 (so outside of play in and in playoffs) with this approach
+ Best option for future salary cap planning as we can plan our moves based on that without pushing either way
N We will have very low odds for top 4 in lottery. Still guaranteed 11-14 though (good players are also quite often found here)
- We might end up not making any trades, which prevents us from finding new potential keepers or starters

Notes for #4:
+ Best for information about where we are right now and what we need going forward
+ Lets us evaluate how well Lauri and Kessler (and others) fair in the playoffs, confirming (or questionning) the investment in them
+ Hardys system goes through the 7 game series test and we see if it holds water
+ Best option for development of Lauri and Kessler (keeping maximum talent around them)
+ Likeliest option to find us more future starters (targeted upgrade trades are more likely to be better than project youngsters)
+ Gives us the best pool of players to work with in the offseason
- We will not be able to add top talent through draft with our own pick at least
- Worst for youth minutes and Ochai and Sexton development for instance
- Worst for future draft assets
- Market prices are high so targeted upgrades might end up costly (risky if they dont fit)
Click to expand...
I prefer Option 3.
 
Not sure if the OP is 100 percent serious or not, but just enjoy watching this team get better each and every game. Tanking is out of the picture, and thank **** imo. Because as I have said before, what is the point of watching your team if you really don't care if they lose or not?

Making the playoffs,even as the last one in, will help this team tremendously whether some think that or not.

Enjoy the ride.
 
HermanG said:
After thinking this through I would be cool with anything but #1... unless I'm missing something on my notes.

All other paths have merit. #4 was my favourite earlier but since the markets seem to be very overpriced it could be better to only try and be competitive if there is an opportunity (meaning choosing #3). Only risk #3 has is we dont do any moves.. but I dont think that will be the case since we have so clear incompatible pieces and this has been a year where our #1 goal has been to evaluate the roster.
Click to expand...

I don’t think we necessarily need to pick a path and stick to it. We need to be opportunistic no matter what. If that leads us to dealing some guys great. If that leads to us trading for a piece that makes us better great.
 
Elizah Huge said:
I don’t think we necessarily need to pick a path and stick to it. We need to be opportunistic no matter what. If that leads us to dealing some guys great. If that leads to us trading for a piece that makes us better great.
Click to expand...
So camp #3. Could end up 8-10 in lottery or even playoffs.
 
HermanG said:
Long post coming up... but I decided to put this on paper for myself to see pros and cons for different paths.

First off top 5 is really out of the question... so our options are:

1) Full tank, offload vets without getting any playable guys in return and maximize current draft position and future assets: Lottery odds in 6-7 range
2) Semi-tank, offload key vets but try to get playable young guys (and picks): Lottery odds in 8-10 range (Lauri, Kessler, Ochai and Sexton likely prevent us from dropping lower than that)
3) Stay opportunistic, worst case get eliminated in play-in: Lottery odds in 11-14 range. Best case we end up where option #2 or #4 would lead us without pushing it:
4) Upgrade and try to make the playoffs: Pick likely in 15-22 range, unless there is an unlikely series win

So the list below has notes with + indicating best for this aspect, - indicating worst for this aspect and N means noteworthy but not best or worst. Please give me your thoughts about it

Notes for #1:
+ Best case is 37% odds for top 4 and 9% odds for #1 (6th in lottery odds)
+ We maximize our draft assets this way
N We give most playing time for all the young guys that we end up keeping. However this is not the best option for youth minutes (option #2 is).
- Silver is watching, and I doubt we would get away with blatant tanking
- Lauri and Kessler development suffers the most with dumping the vets
- We would have to sell at the worst value (as long as we sell them)
- We would end up only having players we dont want to trade away or who are not worth anything in packages, which limits our future trade options
- Likely worst on cap space planning, as would probably contain taking in unwanted contracts

Notes for #2:
+ We might find some new keepers from trading vets if we get young guys back, and we do this without "paying for them" (like in option #4, which is still better for finding future starters)
+ We get best youth minutes with this option
N We dont have to force offload and likely end up keeping some players with trade value for offseason
N Lottery odds for top 4 are still around 20%, which is twice as good as they would be in play-in. However only 1.2 teams in two years from this range reach top 4 according to the odds.
N We still get positive return on draft assets
N Lottery odds essentially mean 1 team every other year reaches top 4. Most likely pick is in that same 8-10 ranges as lottery odds, which means top talent is out of reach

Notes for #3:
+ We trade with best value and get to be picky what deals we choose
+ We can still end up in path #2 or #4 (so outside of play in and in playoffs) with this approach
+ Best option for future salary cap planning as we can plan our moves based on that without pushing either way
N We will have very low odds for top 4 in lottery. Still guaranteed 11-14 though (good players are also quite often found here)
- We might end up not making any trades, which prevents us from finding new potential keepers or starters

Notes for #4:
+ Best for information about where we are right now and what we need going forward
+ Lets us evaluate how well Lauri and Kessler (and others) fair in the playoffs, confirming (or questionning) the investment in them
+ Hardys system goes through the 7 game series test and we see if it holds water
+ Best option for development of Lauri and Kessler (keeping maximum talent around them)
+ Likeliest option to find us more future starters (targeted upgrade trades are more likely to be better than project youngsters)
+ Gives us the best pool of players to work with in the offseason
- We will not be able to add top talent through draft with our own pick at least
- Worst for youth minutes and Ochai and Sexton development for instance
- Worst for future draft assets
- Market prices are high so targeted upgrades might end up costly (risky if they dont fit)
Click to expand...

I think everyone knows i prefer scenario number 2. Good post.
Also, if we did scenario two i wouldnt be shocked if our record this year was just as good as our record in scenario 3. Only difference would be a likely brighter future.

Btw you need to edit your post to say what we do in option 4 (at the beginning of all the other options was a sentence about what trades we do or dont do.)

I assume option 4 is we are buyers and we go all in on winning as much as humanly possible.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
 
Four completely winnable home games in the next 10 days and the tank might be a complete smoldering wreck similar to the Russian tanks rn.

Ending up 6th in the lottery isn't realistic any way, even if DA traded away pretty much everyone tomorrow. Lauri would need to have "knee soreness" for five months and Kessler would have to be benched "to see what Dok (or whomever-javalemcgee comes back in a trade) can do". At that point you're doing massive harm to the team.

Go where the value is. If there are good trades to be had selling, do that. If there are good trades buying, then do that. If you can get promising assets either way, go for it. Don't tie your future hands by taking on contracts/players that complicate what the team can be in 2-3 years time.

Plus: the differences in picking 8th vs. 16th are much, much smaller than 8th vs. 2nd, obviously. If you're costing the team quite a lot to achieve what will probably be the 8th pick, you're more than likely doing it wrong.
 
fishonjazz said:
I think everyone knows i prefer scenario number 2. Good post.
Also, if we did scenario two i wouldnt be shocked if our record this year was just as good as our record in scenario 3. Only difference would be a likely brighter future.

Btw you need to edit your post to say what we do in option 4 (at the beginning of all the other options was a sentence about what trades we do or dont do.)

I assume option 4 is we are buyers and we go all in on winning as much as humanly possible.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
Click to expand...
Good catch, thanks. Corrected and clarified.

Win now is out of the question imo. #4 was meant to be targeted upgrades (being a buyer) but nothing close to depleting the war chest
 
What if the conspiracy theory of the nba sometimes manipulating the draft lottery are true? I could see us just missing the playoffs or losing in the playin and the nba rewarding us for not shamelessly tanking and also taking into account the big problem with load management, seeing the jazz do it as little as anyone in the league, maybe we get rewarded with the top pick? Just saying, it could happen. It feels like my only hope.
 
Thee Idiotic Minivan K said:
What if the conspiracy theory of the nba sometimes manipulating the draft lottery are true? I could see us just missing the playoffs or losing in the playin and the nba rewarding us for not shamelessly tanking and also taking into account the big problem with load management, seeing the jazz do it as little as anyone in the league, maybe we get rewarded with the top pick? Just saying, it could happen. It feels like my only hope.
Click to expand...

They arent true.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
 
Nate505 said:
They're trying to win basketball games. It's what professional athletes want to do in theory.

I mean, if you want to see the Jazz lose, be a Rockets fan or something.
Click to expand...

Its more complex than that. Im about as big of a jazz fan as there ever was and i was cheering, rooting, and hoping for losses when corbin was coach and we were destined to suck that season. It was one season. I was back to wanting to win every game the next year. And maybe if we would have played the youth instead of jamaam tinsley, richard jefferson, and josh howard then maybe we would have drafted joel embiid instead of dante exum.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
 
HermanG said:
Long post coming up... but I decided to put this on paper for myself to see pros and cons for different paths.

First off top 5 is really out of the question as is going for a chip... so our options are:

1) Full tank, offload vets without getting any playable guys in return and maximize current draft position and future assets: Lottery odds in 6-7 range
2) Semi-tank, offload key vets but try to get playable young guys (and picks): Lottery odds in 8-10 range (Lauri, Kessler, Ochai and Sexton likely prevent us from dropping lower than that)
3) Stay opportunistic, worst case get eliminated in play-in: Lottery odds in 11-14 range. Best case we end up where option #2 or #4 would lead us without pushing it:
4) Trade for upgrades and try to make the playoffs: Pick likely in 15-22 range, unless there is an unlikely series win. Not "win now" level investment, but clear buyer trades still.

So the list below has notes with + indicating best for this aspect, - indicating worst for this aspect and N means noteworthy but not best or worst. Please give me your thoughts about it

Notes for #1:
+ Best case is 37% odds for top 4 and 9% odds for #1 (6th in lottery odds)
+ We maximize our draft assets this way
N We give most playing time for all the young guys that we end up keeping. However this is not the best option for youth minutes (option #2 is).
- Silver is watching, and I doubt we would get away with blatant tanking
- Lauri and Kessler development suffers the most with dumping the vets
- We would have to sell at the worst value (as long as we sell them)
- We would end up only having players we dont want to trade away or who are not worth anything in packages, which limits our future trade options
- Likely worst on cap space planning, as would probably contain taking in unwanted contracts

Notes for #2:
+ We might find some new keepers from trading vets if we get young guys back, and we do this without "paying for them" (like in option #4, which is still better for finding future starters)
+ We get best youth minutes with this option
N We dont have to force offload and likely end up keeping some players with trade value for offseason
N Lottery odds for top 4 are still around 20%, which is twice as good as they would be in play-in. However only 1.2 teams in two years from this range reach top 4 according to the odds.
N We still get positive return on draft assets
N Lottery odds essentially mean 1 team every other year reaches top 4. Most likely pick is in that same 8-10 ranges as lottery odds, which means top talent is out of reach

Notes for #3:
+ We trade with best value and get to be picky what deals we choose
+ We can still end up in path #2 or #4 (so outside of play in and in playoffs) with this approach
+ Best option for future salary cap planning as we can plan our moves based on that without pushing either way
N We will have very low odds for top 4 in lottery. Still guaranteed 11-14 though (good players are also quite often found here)
- We might end up not making any trades, which prevents us from finding new potential keepers or starters

Notes for #4:
+ Best for information about where we are right now and what we need going forward
+ Lets us evaluate how well Lauri and Kessler (and others) fair in the playoffs, confirming (or questionning) the investment in them
+ Hardys system goes through the 7 game series test and we see if it holds water
+ Best option for development of Lauri and Kessler (keeping maximum talent around them)
+ Likeliest option to find us more future starters (targeted upgrade trades are more likely to be better than project youngsters)
+ Gives us the best pool of players to work with in the offseason
- We will not be able to add top talent through draft with our own pick at least
- Worst for youth minutes and Ochai and Sexton development for instance
- Worst for future draft assets
- Market prices are high so targeted upgrades might end up costly (risky if they dont fit)
Click to expand...
Really just me and Borat er @Maneesh with the likes? I didn’t think the guy could actually read, er English I mean.;)
 
fishonjazz said:
Its more complex than that. Im about as big of a jazz fan as there ever was and i was cheering, rooting, and hoping for losses when corbin was coach and we were destined to suck that season. It was one season. I was back to wanting to win every game the next year. And maybe if we would have played the youth instead of jamaam tinsley, richard jefferson, and josh howard then maybe we would have drafted joel embiid instead of dante exum.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
Click to expand...
Yeah, that was the last tanking season. What a joy, wanting to lose games to get a crack and NBA greats like Andrew Wiggins and Jabri Parker. Ohh, and Exum who was a great prospect too. Supposedly.
 
Nate505 said:
Yeah, that was the last tanking season. What a joy, wanting to lose games to get a crack and NBA greats like Andrew Wiggins and Jabri Parker. Ohh, and Exum who was a great prospect too. Supposedly.
Click to expand...

That draft was one of the biggest hyped and worst let down in NBA history. Wiggins, smart and Aaron Gordon are a role players. Jabari and Exum are gone and Embiid and Jokic are all that remains. Well besides Randle. But he’s on the Knicks. And **** that franchise.
 
Nate505 said:
Yeah, that was the last tanking season. What a joy, wanting to lose games to get a crack and NBA greats like Andrew Wiggins and Jabri Parker. Ohh, and Exum who was a great prospect too. Supposedly.
Click to expand...

I had fun that season. Should have lost just a few more though


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