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Game Thread Mar 20, 2023 07:00PM MT: Jazz vs. Kings

Added to Calendar: 03-20-23

fishonjazz said:
That is how your original post came across to me fwiw. You have clarified multiple times now though so no biggie.
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Very likely this year compared to other years, like I clarified again and again lol. 2023 class is a very loaded draft class and teams should be able to find gems outside of the top 10.
 
fishonjazz said:
Really good post. Im surprised that 4 didn't dominate 15.
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Yeah in that comparison 15 just happened to fall on some all time greats in Giannis and Kawhi. You could almost argue that the chance to get one of those 2 is sufficient to take the 15th pick. I do not think anyone on the list at the 4 even competes with those 2 at the 15.
 
LogGrad98 said:
Just for fun here are all the #4 and #15s from 2000 to 2020, 21 and 22 are too soon to tell really...

2000 - Marcus Fizer vs Jason Collier
2001 - Eddy Curry vs Steven Hunter
2002 - Drew Gooden vs Bostjan Nachbar
2003 - Chris Bosch vs Reece Gaines
2004 - Shaun Livingston vs Al Jefferson
2005 - Chris Paul vs Antoine Wright
2006 - Tyrus Thomas vs Cedric Simmons
2007 - Mike Conley vs Rodney Stuckey
2008 - Russell Westbrook vs Robin Lopez
2009 - Tyreke Evans vs Austin Daye
2010 - Wesley Johnson vs Larry Sanders
2011 - Tristan Thompson vs Kawhi Leonard
2012 - Dion Waiters vs Maurice Harkless
2013 - Cody Zeller vs Giannis Antetokoumpo
2014 - Aaron Gordon vs Adreian Payne
2015 - Kristapz Porzingas vs Kelly Oubre
2016 - Dragan Bender vs Juancho Hernangomez
2017 - Josh Jackson vs Justin Jackson
2018 - Jaren Jackson vs Troy Brown
2019 - D'Andre Hunter vs Sekou Doumbouya
2020 - Patrick Williams vs Cole Anthony

By my reckoning, 4 absolutely destroyed 15 in 5 or maybe 6 of these years. 15 destroyed 4 in 3, maybe 4 years on a stretch. The rest were roughly even, imo.

So out of 21 years, 4 was the better choice 6/21 or about 30% of the time. 15 was the better choice 4/21 or about 20% of the time and the other half of the time it was fairly a crap shoot with busts and ok players coming in both positions.

Interesting. Of course a lot of this depends on your analysis of player impact and for me, just now, I did it on my gut, no stats. So take that for what it's worth.
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When people put stuff like this out there, it makes me feel like people think that draft success completely random (not saying you think this way). There is no reason that the teams drafting at 4 during the Giannis/Kawhi drafts couldn't have picked them at 4 instead of letting them fall to 15.

This should be super obvious, but the reason you want to pick at 4 vs 15 is that you want first dibs at selecting the best player or in other words you want your front office to have more choices to select the best player. We hope that our front office is better at drafting than the average front office and so we hope they have the most amount of options possible when it is our turn.
 
fishonjazz said:
Actually I really enjoyed the win last night. You say this alot when the jazz win. Yet many (the majority in fact) love these wins on the backs of the young guys and guys that are part of the future plans.
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Probably because your definition of tanking and mine are completely different. What you call tanking I call a youth movement. My definition involves teams that lose by putting a product out on the floor that designed to lose.
 
People are really underrating Rudy's screening and rim-running. That's offense, too, and it was a huge part of an elite Jazz offense.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
When people put stuff like this out there, it makes me feel like people think that draft success completely random (not saying you think this way). There is no reason that the teams drafting at 4 during the Giannis/Kawhi drafts couldn't have picked them at 4 instead of letting them fall to 15.

This should be super obvious, but the reason you want to pick at 4 vs 15 is that you want first dibs at selecting the best player or in other words you want your front office to have more choices to select the best player. We hope that our front office is better at drafting than the average front office and so we hope they have the most amount of options possible when it is our turn.
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We all understand that. point is that drafting tends to be a crapshoot.
 
Nate505 said:
My definition involves teams that lose by putting a product out on the floor that designed to lose.
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You mean like not playing sexton, markennan or clarkson and getting rid of conley, vando, and beasley for nothing that helps you win? Like that?
 
GVC said:
People are really underrating Rudy's screening and rim-running. That's offense, too, and it was a huge part of an elite Jazz offense.
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Agreed. However I think that some us think that kessler knows how to set screens and run towards the rim too. This offense isn't built around kessler though like the rudy offense was. Its a tough comparison to make because of that huge difference. Interesting that with the offense being built more around rudy vs kessler that the point discrepency between rudy and kessler isn't different much at all and our offense this season has been right at the top of the league the entire year even without rudys rim running and screen setting.
I do like watching this offense more though for what its worth.
 
GVC said:
People are really underrating Rudy's screening and rim-running. That's offense, too, and it was a huge part of an elite Jazz offense.
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Agreed. When it comes to scoring Kessler is already better than Gobert, because he has better hands and actually has some moves. But he'd do well to watch some tape of Gobert screens. Kessler's a willing screener, but his screens need to be wider and more committed (or possibly, like many of Gobert's good screens, borderline illegal).
 
I think WK will evolve differently than Rudy, but give overall peak edge to Mr. Gobert.

WK clearly has superior shooting/shot-making/offensive repertoire potential as a scorer. Rudy was a great offensive player but as others have pointed out that was screening, rim runs, catching/finishing lobs, etc. Will never be a threat out side of 8 feet.

OTOH, I think Rudy's physical potential will always be better than WKs. WK very fluid/agile, but Rudy was a strong mf'er and I think people underestimate how much weight/strength he gained as he developed. Big part of his screening and finishing abilities around the basket. WK will certainly get stronger but to the same degree? We'll find out.

WK is freaking sweet and I'm enjoying his ascent as much as anyone else. But let's not forget how dominant peak Rudy was.
 
fishonjazz said:
We all understand that. point is that drafting tends to be a crapshoot.
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This response is confusing to me. You say everyone understands that the draft isn't random, but then you follow it up by saying the draft is random?

Player evaluation is extremely difficult, but it doesn't mean it's random.
 
fishonjazz said:
You mean like not playing sexton, markennan or clarkson and getting rid of conley, vando, and beasley for nothing that helps you win? Like that?
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The first three have got a ton of playing time. this season, other than maybe Sexton who seems to be a walking injury at this point in his career. The last three were moved to give the, uh, youths more playing time, hence the youth movement.. THT is getting Conley's minutes. Kessler is getting Vando's. Ochai is getting Beasley's.
 
GVC said:
People are really underrating Rudy's screening and rim-running. That's offense, too, and it was a huge part of an elite Jazz offense.
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But all of that took time to develop. Kessler is a rookie, so we have to imagine what he could be or then we try and remember rookie Rudy.

It took him what 3-4 years to break 10 PPG mark? My guess is Kessler gonna hit 15 next year. He is already at 13.7 on per 36.

Rudy was 9.1/11.0 in his 3rd year (1st as full time starter with 31mpg).
 
SoberasHotRod said:
This response is confusing to me. You say everyone understands that the draft isn't random, but then you follow it up by saying the draft is random?

Player evaluation is extremely difficult, but it doesn't mean it's random.
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ok. Lets go with player evaluation is so difficult (extremely even to use your word) that it seems to almost turn into a crapshoot. Better?
 
Nate505 said:
The first three have got a ton of playing time. this season, other than maybe Sexton who seems to be a walking injury at this point in his career. The last three were moved to give the, uh, youths more playing time, hence the youth movement.. THT is getting Conley's minutes. Kessler is getting Vando's. Ochai is getting Beasley's.
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If giving conleys minutes to tht and beasleys to ochai and vandos to kessler is the best way to get wins then why wasn't that happening all along? Or are you saying that they weren't trying to get wins?
 
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Another interesting comparison between Gobert and Kessler:
Gobert recently went to a team with its eye on a championship.
Kessler went to a team with its eye on some draft picks.

Goberts team has a .493 winning percentage
Kesslers teams has a .493 winning percentage

Goberts team has an offensive rating of 113.2
Kesslers team has an offensive rating of 116.1

Goberts team has a defensive rating of 113.3
Kesslers team has a defensive rating of 115.8

Goberts team has a net rating of negative .01
Kesslers team has a net rating of plus .03

And remember, kessler is a 21 year old making 2.7 million per year
Gobert is a 30 year old making 38.2 million per year

Fun times lol.
 
fishonjazz said:
Another interesting comparison between Gobert and Kessler:
Gobert recently went to a team with its eye on a championship.
Kessler went to a team with its eye on some draft picks.

Goberts team has a .493 winning percentage
Kesslers teams has a .493 winning percentage

Goberts team has an offensive rating of 113.2
Kesslers team has an offensive rating of 116.1

Goberts team has a defensive rating of 113.3
Kesslers team has a defensive rating of 115.8

Goberts team has a net rating of negative .01
Kesslers team has a net rating of plus .03

And remember, kessler is a 21 year old making 2.7 million per year
Gobert is a 30 year old making 38.2 million per year

Fun times lol.
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Key word here being team.
 
fishonjazz said:
Another interesting comparison between Gobert and Kessler:
Gobert recently went to a team with its eye on a championship.
Kessler went to a team with its eye on some draft picks.

Goberts team has a .493 winning percentage
Kesslers teams has a .493 winning percentage

Goberts team has an offensive rating of 113.2
Kesslers team has an offensive rating of 116.1

Goberts team has a defensive rating of 113.3
Kesslers team has a defensive rating of 115.8

Goberts team has a net rating of negative .01
Kesslers team has a net rating of plus .03

And remember, kessler is a 21 year old making 2.7 million per year
Gobert is a 30 year old making 38.2 million per year

Fun times lol.
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Lauri would be the best player on Minnesota too, I think.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Key word here being team.
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Sure. Thats kinda the point though. Gobert went to a TEAM trying to win a championship. Kessler went to a team looking for some good draft picks.

Would be interesting for someone to break down each teams offensive and defensive ratings with each player on and off the court.
 
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