Yes, it's the idea that the peak performances are the best indicator for potential.
2023 NBA Draft Megathread
- Thread starter Ferguson_Mellochill
- Start date
He was 17 years old for those games.
Keefe
Well-Known Member
So he was the only young freshman I guess.
I watched a bunch of him today, his high’s are really high and generally he does more good things than bad things. What’s still troubling for me is what you don’t see, and that’s any presence at the rim at all. His good games are a result of super hot shooting, and while that’s impressive on its own, it’s a tough way to make a living in the NBA. I could see a version of him that turns these mid range pull ups into 3 point pullups….but it is incredibly difficult to be efficient in the NBA without the ability to get the basket or free throw line. I also think his horrendous rim finishing is reflective of poor athletic ability.
It makes me think if CJ McCollum. Great scorer in the NBA obviously and he does not get to the rim or FT line a ton…but he is super elite at the shot he takes. It requires elite shot making for someone with his shot profile to be close to league average in efficiency. If CJ wasn’t elite at shot making he wouldn’t have much of a career and that’s what worries me about JHS. For his game to work, he has to be exceptionally good at it.
If we’re going to go for this type of prospect, I prefer George. His FTr was double JHS’s, percentage at the rim was much higher, already has extended his shooting out to 3, and he also has the stocks advantage which has l always been a big indicator.
I also have to say, if we’re going to ignore the numbers and focus in on the best performances Nick Smith is fairly impressive. He’s super quick and can get off any kind of shot you want. His off ball movement reminds me of Booker a little bit. Lots of energy and zip. He will never be my type of prospect because the results do matter, but he is impressive under this kind of light.
He was basically the youngest player in D1.
A team won't draft him for what he is today, but who he can be in 2-3 years.
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
2020-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
Thats true about every player in the draft lol.
Yes, but players as young and skilled as GG have the most potential for growth and improvement.
The GG age thing is the most circular conversation ever because it essentially gives him an excuse to suck as bad as possible. You mention how he sucked, a GG fan will just excuse all of it because he's young. It's impossible to even discuss him because his age is used like this ultimate trump card to fend off any question or concern about him. This is how we get to the point where we talk about removing pro days from evaluation because it's too difficult. Then we go down further and say that DX has a conspiracy out against him while simultaneously using DX's own footage to show that the report about his pro day is wrong.
Emoni was younger than GG last season, didn't give him a free license for being terrible. He transferred to a low level of competition, and what happened was very predictable. He did get better (arguably) but didn't make the gigantic improve just to get on par with other first round draft picks. At #28, who cares, take a pop shot. But if GG were to come back to school the amount of development it would take to get on par with the prospects in the middle of the first is crazy. But hey, Kobe Bufkin exists too. Surely if he can do it GG can do it too. Yeah....I'll take the guy that already made the tremendous, unlikely improvement instead of the guy who needs that same extraordinary just to get on par.
Emoni was younger than GG last season, didn't give him a free license for being terrible. He transferred to a low level of competition, and what happened was very predictable. He did get better (arguably) but didn't make the gigantic improve just to get on par with other first round draft picks. At #28, who cares, take a pop shot. But if GG were to come back to school the amount of development it would take to get on par with the prospects in the middle of the first is crazy. But hey, Kobe Bufkin exists too. Surely if he can do it GG can do it too. Yeah....I'll take the guy that already made the tremendous, unlikely improvement instead of the guy who needs that same extraordinary just to get on par.
I think we're probably underestimating Dariq Whitehead. He measured out at 6'6", 218 lbs with a 6'10" wingpan. He settles for jumpers too much for my liking, but outside the top 10, he has a lot of value. Sizewise, he's comparable to Gradey. Hopefully, his foot heals well. He's got a lot of scoring talent.
Chargers Jazz Angels
Well-Known Member
Right now at #9 I am all in on Cason Wallace
Because Emoni is rail then and a terrible athlete...
If CJ were 6-6, 215, I think I'm taking that.
I actually don't see the resemblance between him and CJ all that much, but I recognize that his rim finishing is the big weakness (in addition to the consistency/efficiency), and that could be a big flaw if he can't improve on it some.
I just think he's a real PG and has both great size and good skill for that position. I worry a bit about the George, Smith, Bufkin types who seem to be SGs in combo guards' bodies. That's a recipe for being a sixth-man type at best. But I still need to watch a lot more to see how much I really believe these preconceptions I have.
Do you know if it reached the level of documented results or was more still of a theory? Or how it's held up recently?
i would be sad if cam went 8 and equally sad hendricks was there at nine and we passed. i dont think you get hendricks at 16.
The shot profile is where I find the similarity with CJ. There are few scorers in the NBA that can survive without getting shots at the rim and free throw line. CJ is honestly the only one that comes to mind but I'm sure there are others. Clarkson maybe? Again, not exactly the most efficient scorer. I'm not saying he plays exactly like these players, but I'm just pointing out how rare it is to be a good scorer without being able to get to the rim. JHS is not a 6'6 CJ. CJ is an elite jump shooter. JHS is just average, but he will need to become elite like CJ to make things work.
IMO, JHS has the more limited outcomes and is more likely because the likelihood he becomes am efficient scorer is so narrow. Even if he becomes ELITE at making the kinds of shots he takes, he will struggle to be average. George and Bufkin in particular have much more clear paths to being starters because they can produce more efficient offense. To even have a chance at being efficient JHS has to prove he can turn those mid range shots into 3 balls, and even if he can he will struggle with his awful+nonexistent pressure on the rim. You can get better at the rim, especially with NBA spacing, but IMO that is a physical limitation JHS has. He has no burst to get the rim and when he does he's a ground bound. Even with a ton of improvement he would still be below average.
His measurements are great, those measurements don't seem to help him much. He is amongst the worst in class at finishing at the rim and in stocks. If the size amounted to more I'd be interested. His PG skills might be the best of this group, but IMO George and Bufkin are not far behind. I'm harping on the scoring a lot, but that's because I think that's his path as an NBA player. He's not exactly a standout in other areas.
Last edited:
No idea, but I tend to believe it.
Nor do I