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  1. #41
    Senior Member mellow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVC View Post
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    Time for some Favors/Sap, Kanter/Sap or Kanter/Favors lineups to finish games, especially when Al is playing soft.
    I think Ty is afraid there will be no scoring if he takes Al out durring crunch time, and he may be right. But a solution to that problem may be just a few steps away.

    Virtue lies in the struggle, not in the prize.

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  3. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVC View Post
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    Then my reply to numbnut's (not you) post should have been "so what?". I can agree with that.

    GB: Not that any of your posts have ever made any sense whatsoever, but by what metric is Jefferson a better defender than Millsap? Per mysynergysports.com, Jefferson's opposite number scores at a 0.92 points per possession clip. For Millsap, that number stands at 0.83. Keep in mind, Millsap is guarding 4s, who tend to be better offensively than 5s. Aside from that, Millsap is also superior to Al in On-Court/Off-court team defense. Maybe it's just a coincidence that Millsap has consistently put up better defensive advanced stats throughout his career (and this season).

    Rev: When is Ty going to try crunch time lineups with Al on the bench? Should he have averaged 5 more minutes per game than Millsap over the last 9 games? His numbers have been worse, his team play worse, the results terrible. Time for some Favors/Sap, Kanter/Sap or Kanter/Favors lineups to finish games, especially when Al is playing soft.
    Then I guess we agree. Probably we're just splitting on the word "reliable".

    My thing is simple: I'll bet Ty Chandler has fantastic post stats. But if you actually posted him 12 times a night, he would be horrific.

    Being able to create your own shot in the NBA is very underappreciated skill. Few players can really do it whatever their efficiency rates, and even less can do it in the post. Al can do that. The other guys we have can't.

    How to use that ability would be my question. At present, I don't think we have a coach who knows how which is the theme of all my broken record posts.

  4. #43
    Senior Member GVC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyshelby View Post
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    Being able to create your own shot in the NBA is very underappreciated skill. Few players can really do it whatever their efficiency rates, and even less can do it in the post. Al can do that. The other guys we have can't.
    Not sure the bolded is true. In today's NBA, getting your own shot seems to be the only appreciated skill. And, it's not as if the other 3 Jazz bigs don't get a big chunk of their possessions in the post. I think you overstate/overvalue what Al gives the Jazz, relative to the other available options, on offense. Tough to bridge this gap without a lot better data though.
    http://jazzfanz.com/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=133&dateline=1317382587

  5. #44
    Senior Member GVC's Avatar
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    FWIW, billy, I plugged a bunch of mysynergysports team stats into a spreadsheet a couple weeks ago.

    As one would expect, the lowest PPP offense comes out of isos, postups and Pick and Roll ball handlers. This isn't (necessarily) because these are ineffective, it's because they can do a couple key things other offense can't (or generally don't):

    1. Create easy shots for teammates.
    2. Get shots consistently when the offense breaks down.

    Not surprisingly, then, the most common shot type is the spot-up jumpshot, which is created (by in large) by the 3 aforementioned shot types.

    The Jazz, in PPP, are currently 29th in P&R Ball handler, 14th in ISOs and 9th in postups. With the disorganized/poorly executed/non-existent offense the Jazz are running, they should be running a lot of the offense through the post IF all else is equal re: Creating offense for others.

    Al gives the Jazz consistent offense when nothing else is available. He does so better than any other player on the team (although Kanter is sneaking up on him). Whether this offsets his mediocre vision/passing and piss-poor defense and transition play is hard to say. Given this uncertainty (at least IMO), I'd like to see Ty try using crunch time lineups not featuring Al, as he's done with Millsap.
    http://jazzfanz.com/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=133&dateline=1317382587

  6. #45
    Senior Member Thee jazz fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mellow View Post
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    I think Ty is afraid there will be no scoring if he takes Al out durring crunch time, and he may be right. But a solution to that problem may be just a few steps away.

    He isn't the answer as of now. Maybe if his game matures, but now his offense isn't much more efficient then Al's. Yes, he gets to the foul line at a greater rate but his shooting is just plain bad.

  7. #46
    Senior Member LunaticWolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by theNBAnerd View Post
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    his answer didn't bother me... but i will admit that i knew as soon as i read it that it would bother some people.

    the dude's a competitor, and he has carried the jazz on his back far more than anybody on this team other than al. what's more, he has frequently shown a willingness to do the less glamorous things like defend and set screens. so i can imagine the guy doesn't like feeling even further marginalized despite the fact that he has better PPP stats AND better defense than the guy who almost automatically plays more minutes than him every single night.

    but fwiw (and i hope this isn't just wishful thinking) - the fact that paul's on the shelf late and al is in there playing probably doesn't mean paul's on the trade block. if the jazz were really trying to dangle paul right now, they wouldn't be lowering his value intentionally by sitting him late so that al jefferson could use even MORE of the team's late-game possessions. his sitting probably means nothing, but if it means anything, it's that al is the guy whose value they're trying to protect.
    Its funny to see how opinions change based on the person who said it.

    I didn't get after Boozer for his comment and I'm not going to get after Paul for this.
    "Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed." - Dwight D. Eisenhower

  8. #47
    Senior Member Lattimer's Avatar
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    With Corbin, it works, why wouldn't he?

    Corbin is the vets b****. Every once in a while he forgets his place so they have to remind him.

  9. #48
    Premium Member fishonjazz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Durrrr View Post
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    With Corbin, it works, why wouldn't he?

    Corbin is the vets b****. Every once in a while he forgets his place so they have to remind him.
    This
    Hell it even works for demarre.

  10. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by gregbroncs View Post
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    On which end of the floor is Millsap a hell of a lot better than AL? Because it is definitely not on the defensive end.
    umm, false.

    per synergy, on all plays where al is the primary defender, the jazz give up 92 points per 100 possessions. when it's paul or derrick, that number falls to 83. kanter is at 77. sap is far better defending the roll man on the PnR, isos AND spot-up shots (where al is truly awful, allowing 123 pts for every 100 spot-ups by his man). the only frequent defensive play where al is empirically defending well is post-ups, where all 4 jazz bigs are between 79 and 85 pp100, with al leading the way and paul right behind him at 81.

    unfortunately, synergy doesn't keep numbers on help defense because they can't possibly automate a system that takes into account 30 teams' defensive philosophies on who should rotate when and assess the possession -- but just from watching the sheer number of times al sees a guy coming down the lane and moves to the side, i can tell you it's pretty bad, too.
    check out the jazzbros.com blog for more on the jazz.

  11. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyshelby View Post
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    Al's reliability does not exactly correlate to efficiency. Put another way, it's a lot to presume that Sap, Favors, and Kanter would maintain their current levels of efficiency if they got the same touches Al did. So Al being a more reliable post scorer is accurate if you buy that premise.
    that argument has absoltuely no teeth for me... which is why we've bickered every time you've brought the discussion forward.

    if one guy produced offensively at a level that is at or below the team average on a per-possession basis and another 5 guys produce at a HIGHER level, why wouldn't you want to reallocate some possessions? if you have a stock portfolio where a bunch of your money is following a stock that is middling along, and then you have smaller amounts in a bunch of stocks that are giving you a really good return... why wouldn't you move your money around? your answer seems to be (correct me if i'm wrong, i'm not trying to strawman you here) because we don't KNOW that the returns will stay the same after we shift around the possession investment. but i'd rather lose trying something different rather than lose the same damn way over and over again and never alter the script. when you're team is below .500 and in a month-long offensive funk, i think it's perfectly ok to see if other people's games will hold up to an increase in volume.

    (and fwiw, it's not like paul's sample size is statistically insignificant. we can say with a pretty decent amount of mathematical surety that a paul possession is going to produce better results than an al possession.)

    and anyways, i'm not proposing taking al's 20-25 attempts and giving them all to one guy (paul or anyone else). my vision for the jazz offense is one where no guy is shooting 20 shots, but the movement and team play is so strong that everybody is a thread on every play. that's when the jazz play their best basketball anyway (see: last night), but that doesn't happen when we're built around al. the ball sticks to one of the floor and only 2-3 guys are involved in the play, which is extremely easy to guard and thus extremely inefficient. very few FTAs, very few plays at the rim, very unfun to watch.
    check out the jazzbros.com blog for more on the jazz.

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