Tracking the Jazz in the Hollinger Playoff Odds
I'm curious to see how accurate the Hollinger Playoff Odds will be for Jazz. So I'm going to keep track of how accurately the system predicts the record of the remaining games for the Jazz. There's not really much point to this, but the same could be said of many threads here.
2/5/13: Jazz record is 27-22. The Hollinger Playoff Odds say the Jazz go 14-19 the rest of the way to finish 41-41. (Actual: 5-8)
2/6/13: Jazz record at 27-22, projected to go 15-18 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 5-9)
2/7/13: Jazz record is 28-22, projected to go 14-18 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 4-9)
2/8/13: Jazz record is 28-22, projected to go 14-18 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 4-9)
2/9/13: Jazz record is 28-23, projected to go 14-17 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 4-8)
2/10/13: Jazz record is 28-24, projected to go 13-17 to finish 41-41. (Actual: 4-7)
2/11/13: Jazz record is 28-24, projected to go 13-17 to finish 41-41. (Actual: 4-7) Odds of making playoffs: 43.2% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/12/13: Jazz record is 28-24, projected to go 13-17 to finish 41-41. (Actual: 4-7) Odds of making playoffs: 44.3% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/13/13: Jazz record is 29-24, projected to go 13-16 to finish 42-40. (Actual: 3-7) Odds of making playoffs: 55.5% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/14/13: Jazz record is 30-24, projected to go 13-15 to finish 43-39. (Actual: 2-7) Odds of making playoffs: 63.4% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/15/13: Jazz Record and Projection remain unchanged. Odds of making playoffs: 65.5% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/19/13: Jazz Record and Projection remain unchanged. Odds of making playoffs: 66.8% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/20/13: Jazz record is 31-24, projected to go 12-15 to finish 43-39. (Actual: 1-7) Odds of making playoffs: 75.2% Projected WC seed: 8th
2/21/13: Jazz record and projection remain unchanged. Odds of making playoffs: 72.5% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/24/13: Jazz are 31-25 and projected to go 12-14 to finish at 43-39 (Actual: 1-6). Odds of making playoffs: 68% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/25/13 Everything is unchanged except the odds of the Jazz making the playoffs, now at 65.7%
2/26/13: Jazz are 31-26 and projected to go 12-13to finish 43-39. (Actual: 1-5) Odds of making playoffs: 63.8% Prjoected WC Seed: 8th
2/27/13: Only change is in Jazz playoff odds, now at 65.2%.
2/28/13: Jazz are 31-27 and projected to go 11-13 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 1-4) Odds of making playoffs: 61.4% Projected WC Seed: 8th
3/4/13: Jazz are 32-27 and projected to go 10-13 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 0-4) Odds of making playoffs: 64.1% Projected WC Seed: 8th
3/5/13: Jazz are 32-28 and projected to go 10-12 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 0-3) Odds of making playoffs: 58.6%
3/6/13: Record and projection unchanged, playoff odds up to 61.3%
3/9/13: Jazz are 32-30 and projected to go 10-10 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 0-1) Odds of making playoffs: 52.2%
3/11/13: Jazz are 32-31 and projected to go 9-10 to finish at 41-41. (Actual:) Odds of making playoffs: 43.9% Projected WC Seed: 9th
Last edited by nightmare3983; 03-11-2013 at 01:10 PM.
02-05-2013 11:33 PM
Wow it predicts we will play under 500 ball!?!
Originally Posted by nightmare3983
Make jazzfanz UGLI Again
Fortune and glory, kid. Fortune and glory.
I think the Jazz will get at least 45 wins, especially if Mo and Hayward come back strong.
The Jazz still suck on the road and can't seem to beat good teams though. It doesn't bode well for the playoffs. At all.
Our best wins of the year so far would be the Spurs, Miami and Indiana at home, and maybe the Lakers and Nets on the road. We're still a mediocre team overall.
Last edited by Catchall; 02-06-2013 at 12:22 AM.
Does it really take a sophisticated mathematician to figure out that the Jazz are a .500 team? I could've told you that without looking at any stats...
sad, but true. the jazz again, are an average team.
well playoff sweep here we come
Computers never tell a lie, but Fisher does.
"les grandes défaites forgent les grands hommes" - Rudy Gobert
2/6/13: Expected final record now up at 42-40. Jazz narrowly miss the playoffs, losing the tie-breaker to the Lakers.
Originally Posted by nightmare3983
"Ye know that the princes of the Gentiles exercise dominion over them, and they that are great exercise authority upon them. But it shall not be so among you: but whosoever will be great among you, let him be your minister; And whosoever will be chief among you, let him be your servant." --Matthew 20:25-27
The Jazz own the tie breaker with the Lakers. How do they lose?
Originally Posted by colton
Cy is a Baker, he doesn't work fast food. Don't make that mistake, he doesn't like it.
The playoff odds are based off the daily Power Rankings that was / is John Hollinger's creation, if I remember correctly. https://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings The Jazz had been hovering in the 11-16 range, and then plummeted to around 24 after the Houston loss. Our playoffs odds were basically cut in half from 80% to 40% after that loss, as the power rankings formula contains a factor for victory margin.. Houston's ranking shot up again yesterday after their beatdown of Golden State..
The formula puts a large emphasis on the last ten games. When the houston blowout isn't in the focused period our odds will jump back up.
Originally Posted by acj1971
The pen is mightier than the sword. I keep the sword for the day I run out of ink. - Unknown
People demand freedom of speech to make up for the freedom of thought which they avoid. - Soren Kierkegaard
I for one will be very interested to see how Hollinger does applying his methods/formulas in the Grizzlies' front office. While I believe that advanced metrics have a lot of value and are superior on average to eyeball tests or gut feelings, Hollinger struck me as a bit too smug about the all encompassing power of his PER and his other stats. (Anyone know, has PER achieved a kind of elevated status, similar to, say, Wins Above Replacement, in that it is a metric widely used by other sabremetricians, or is it the hobby horse of a particular group of people but not otherwise widely used, or something in between?) You know the old saying, "when the only tool you have is a hammer, then everything starts looking like a nail."
I'm not rooting for or against Hollinger, but I am quite interested in how this pans out.