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Colton's 2018 mock draft compilation, v 2.0

colton

colton

All Around Nice Guy
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Welcome to the traditional annual "Colton's Mock Draft Compilation". This is the 2018 mock draft compilation, v. 2.0. Version 1.0 can be found here: https://jazzfanz.com/threads/coltons-2018-mock-draft-compilation-v-1-0.92981/. I will probably do just one more version before the draft. For this compilation I used 16 mock drafts, all of which had been updated Jun 2 or later. Here are who the mock drafts are listing as the "best players". See below for details. It should give a pretty good idea of who will be available when the Jazz pick. Currently the Jazz pick at 21 and 52 but of course trades can always happen.

1 DeAndre Ayton
2 Marvin Bagley III
3 Luka Doncic
4 Jaren Jackson Jr
5 Michael Porter Jr
5 Mohamed Bamba
7 Wendell Carter Jr
8 Trae Young
9 Mikal Bridges
10 Collin Sexton
11 Kevin Knox
12 Miles Bridges
13 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
14 Lonnie Walker
15 Robert Williams
16 Zhaire Smith
17 Aaron Holiday
18 Khyri Thomas
18 Donte DiVincenzo
20 Kevin Huerter
21 Keita Bates-Diop
22 Troy Brown
23 Chandler Hutchison
24 Dzanan Musa
25 Jacob Evans
26 De'Anthony Melton
27 Mitchell Robinson
28 Josh Okogie
29 Elie Okobo
30 Jalen Brunson
31 Anfernee Simons
32 Jerome Robinson
33 Gary Trent Jr
34 Grayson Allen
35 Omari Spellman
36 Bruce Brown
36 Melvin Frazier
38 Jevon Carter
39 Moritz Wagner
40 Hamidou Diallo
41 Landry Shamet
41 Rodions Kurucs
43 Trevon Duval
44 Shake Milton
44 Chimezie Metu
44 Rawle Alkins
44 Jarred Vanderbilt
44 Isaac Bonga
44 Devonte' Graham
44 Brandon McCoy
44 Issuf Sanon
44 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
44 Brian Bowen
54 Kevin Hervey
55 Tony Carr
55 Malik Newman
55 Raymond Spalding
58 Justin Jackson
59 Devon Hall
60 Arnoldas Kulboka
60 Kenrich Williams
60 Goga Bitadze


For full data see https://www.physics.byu.edu/faculty/colton/nba mock draft compilation 2018 - v.2.0.htm; sorry about the messed up formatting of the hyperlinks there but I don't have time to fix that.

Some observations about where the Jazz pick:

Pick 21
* The "best guesses" for pick 21 are Keita Bates-Diop and Troy Brown. Three mocks each have the Jazz picking those players.
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have available at pick 21 is Zhaire Smith.
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have the Jazz picking at pick 21 is Aaron Holiday. Seven mocks have him as available there and one mock has the Jazz selecting him.

Pick 52
* The "best guess" for pick 52 is Tony Carr. Two mocks have the Jazz selecting him.
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have available at pick 52 is Aaron Holiday (a first round only mock who didn't have him going in the first round).
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have the Jazz picking at pick 52 is Elie Okobo. Four mocks have him as available there and one mock has the Jazz selecting him.


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Ranking details: I used the following mock drafts as "voters" for the best players. That is, I assumed they ranked the players in the order that they felt like the players deserved to be drafted. (This is an incorrect assumption, because some mock drafts account for perceived team need, but it should be close.) Then I used the "instant run-off voting" algorithm in a program I wrote to deduce who deserved to be ranked in the top spot, then in the second spot, then in the third spot, and so forth. See here for details on that algorithm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting. Where the players ended up tied, I used their median and average rankings (in that order) to be the tie-breakers in how I listed them.

Mock drafts used (in no particular order):
http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft ? Jun 11
https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/12/2018-nba-mock-draft-trade-rumors-suns-kings-hawks-mavericks Jeremoy Woo Jun 10
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2018-nba-consensus-mock-draft-ver-6-0/ Benny Nadeau Jun 7
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2018-nba-consensus-mock-draft-ver-6-0/ Jesse Blancarte Jun 7
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2018-nba-consensus-mock-draft-ver-6-0/ Moke Hamilton Jun 7
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2018-nba-consensus-mock-draft-ver-6-0/ Steve Kyler Jun 7
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic-trae-young-lottery Jonathan Givony Jun 7
http://www.mynbadraft.com/NBA-Mock-Draft ? Jun 7
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft/ Gary Parrish Jun 5
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/b...ncic-bamba-bagley-young-porter-carter-bridges Mark Strotman Jun 5
http://netscoutsbasketball.com/scouting/2018-nba-mock-draft/ Carl Berman? Jun 5
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...rojection-is-dominated-by-big-men-at-the-top/ Matt Norlander Jun 5
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/tag/mock-drafts/ Steve Kyler Jun 5
https://nbadraft.theringer.com/ Kevin O'Connor Jun 4
http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2018-nba-mock-draft.html ? Jun 2
http://walterfootball.com/nbadraft2018mock.php David Kay Jun 2

If you have suggestions/requests for other mocks that should be included, let me know.
 
There's no way Okobo lasts until 29. If the Jazz selected Diop while Okobo and Troy Brown were still on the board I would be furious.
 
Wow, it was suprising how quickly all the knots worked out. I think in v1 there was a stack of players from 17 to 24.

Now if I could only determine if the mocks were falling into order because the players are tiered by talent or if the mocks stabilize because the guys making mocks feel pressure to conform. Like the Asch Conformity Study. "Which draft pick is better?"

 
Last edited:
elan_prodigy said:
I think theres a chance Mo Bamba goes #1.
Click to expand...
Only if Phoenix trades the pick. Ayton played at AZ. He'll put butts in the seats. Plus he's been widely regarded as the #1 pick for quite some time. The only other guy Phoenix can justify picking is Doncic due to his relationship with Kokoskov.
 
Xthren said:
Hey Colton do you factor in any analytics to your mock? That might change draft order a little and would be interesting to see

Sent from my Z981 using JazzFanz mobile app
Click to expand...
Not sure what you mean. This isn't actually a mock draft, but rather a compilation of other people's mocks with a composite ranking.
 
Xthren said:
Well a couple of people out there rank prospects based on analytics. So you take their ranking and apply it to the over all complication

Sent from my Z981 using JazzFanz mobile app
Click to expand...

If you can steer me towards one or more of the rankings you're talking about, I'll look into it. I'd probably just take their rankings as additional "voters" in my compilation.
 
@Xthren - interesting, cool. I'll incorporate them into my next compilation. They are more like "big boards" rather than "mock drafts", so a little different than all of the other mocks in my list. But probably worth including.
 
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