Coronavirus in China

Red

Well-Known Member
Not hard to recognize that this is the strategy Trump has settle on....

 

Wes Mantooth

Well-Known Member
Honestly it's gonna end okay.

Are people gonna get COVID-19? Yes. Are school aged kids going to die? No. Will many of them infect the people they live with, including elderly grandparents or people with underlying conditions? Yes, but people at high risk should be making plans now to eliminate contact with people who will be exposed in school, work, social interactions.

So yeah, it's gonna be kinda bad. Infectious diseases sure do suck, and they sure do kill people.

Have we ever responded to an infectious disease the way we have to COVID-19 in the last 100 years? Nope. We've let people die. Just like we let people die on our highways. Just like we let people die from cigarettes, or opioids.

I'm all for reasonable precautions. I'm all for personal responsibility.

Make masks mandatory. Make social distancing guidelines legally enforceable.

We can't contain or stop this. The cats out of the bag. We had a chance in March. We don't have the ability to stop this now. Strap in and enjoy the ride... let the people with underlying conditions know you love them.

See you in 2022.
This is a complete swing and a miss, GF. Little kids have died from this. Let’s say they don’t though but there is still poor direction from leaders in government and school districts on wearing masks, social distancing and the like as Thriller has mentioned. If that happens, then the outcome is obvious. A lot more kids are gonna get it and even if they don’t die as you’ve poorly assumed since some kids have died from this, they’ll still spread it to educators and other adults in their life who certainly will die from this.

We are filling out a survey right now for my rising first grader’s school. In it they ask about options. The two options are:

1. Masks all day for all students but because all students are present, no social distancing
2. Split schedules with less students in the class (1/3 or 1/2 the amount) but masks aren’t mandatory.

I certainly don’t want number one. Masks or not, it appears that many people in one confined spot has netted really bad results. And it’s not as if kids aren’t gonna take their masks off during lunch or because they’ll forget here and there because they’re little kids. My bigger problem is with number two though. I do believe we should have a split schedule of sorts. 1/3 or so remote for parents who want that, 1/3 on an A day, 1/3 on a B day. Instead of having 24 kids in a class, there will be 8. However, those kids should still be wearing masks. Thinking 9-11 people per room is okay and that no germs can spread is ****ing dumb. Be smart. Step one is spreading kids out into thirds. Good. Don’t then let your guard down and say okay, now we don’t need to wear masks.

This is Thriller’s issue. Poor direction by those in charge. And it’s a legitimate one. My guess here in NJ is that we’ll either never see the classroom or that if we do, we’ll be remote by mid-October at the latest.
 
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candrew

Well-Known Member
Not hard to recognize that this is the strategy Trump has settle on....

Let's face it, he's right. 400 - 600 people dying a day is apparently an acceptable number to people.
 

Avery

Well-Known Member
Let's face it, he's right. 400 - 600 people dying a day is apparently an acceptable number to people.
To a % of the population, it is. The mantra of many of those is survival of the fittest, just don't make me change my plans. It's why you see swamped pool parties and political rallies with no enforced precautions.

But more people think Covid is an issue vs. those that don't and those people are pretty clear about how they'll vote in November.
 
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One Brow

Well-Known Member
Are school aged kids going to die? No.
The correct answer is "several", and more that will have life-long complications.

Have we ever responded to an infectious disease the way we have to COVID-19 in the last 100 years? Nope. We've let people die. Just like we let people die on our highways. Just like we let people die from cigarettes, or opioids.
Which of those other diseases caused 125K+ deaths in five months?

All of the choices we are facing are terrible, but let's not underplay their consequences as a result.
 

candrew

Well-Known Member
To a % of the population, it is. The mantra of many of those is survival of the fittest, just don't make me change my plans. It's why you see swamped pool parties and political rallies with no enforced precautions.

But more people think Covid is an issue vs. those that don't and those people are pretty clear about how they'll vote in November.
Right - the vast majority of people are on board with masks and social distancing whenever possible. But at this point there isn't a overwhelming demand to do something radically different or go backwards and shut things down again for the sake of the several hundred people dying a day. It seems obvious we're going to slow burn this thing until a vaccine is developed.
 

Red

Well-Known Member
I was under the impression that this was already well known....


Good short summary, and WHO’s response. It does sound like the aerosol spread may be the transmission mode that makes for superspreader events, and the reason why everyone wearing masks in any enclosed space is our best defense right now. Social distancing alone won’t work when microparticles can just float around and travel a hell of a lot further than 6 feet.


This may also be educational on aerosols:

 

The Thriller

Well-Known Member
Good short summary, and WHO’s response. It does sound like the aerosol spread may be the transmission mode that makes for superspreader events, and the reason why everyone wearing masks in any enclosed space is our best defense right now. Social distancing alone won’t work when microparticles can just float around and travel a hell of a lot further than 6 feet.


This may also be educational on aerosols:

Which makes face to face school a complete and utter nightmare from hell. Literally every school day will be a super spreader event. The AC will infect teachers, admins, Etc students so quickly.
 

The Thriller

Well-Known Member
“bUt ThE dEaTh RaTeS!”

I’d encourage everyone to check out the deaths from today. Sounds like these last few weeks of younger people getting sick And overwhelming ICUs is finally beginning to manifest in deaths. We haven’t been this high since June 11. The next week should be interesting.
 

Avery

Well-Known Member
“bUt ThE dEaTh RaTeS!”

I’d encourage everyone to check out the deaths from today. Sounds like these last few weeks of younger people getting sick And overwhelming ICUs is finally beginning to manifest in deaths. We haven’t been this high since June 11. The next week should be interesting.
Probably a bit of backlog from the holidays to a degree, we will see how things progress.

Dear leader is telling us how he saved hundreds of thousands of lives today of course.
 

infection

Well-Known Member
Staff member
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
“bUt ThE dEaTh RaTeS!”

I’d encourage everyone to check out the deaths from today. Sounds like these last few weeks of younger people getting sick And overwhelming ICUs is finally beginning to manifest in deaths. We haven’t been this high since June 11. The next week should be interesting.
This was not unexpected. Here’s my post and analysis from Saturday, when numbers were very low (and when there were crickets):


Tuesday is always the highest day of the week, because Sunday and Monday are the reports for the weekend. Sunday is always much lower than Saturday. This past Saturday being the 4th, we saw numbers drop to 265, down from 512 the Saturday before on the 27th. The Tuesday surge was predictable (I was off by 10%), as was the response to it. If you take an average of the weekend days through the weekend correction catch up day (Saturday through Tuesday), then this most recent average for the 4th-7th is 475 per day, up slightly from the four-day average from the 27th-30th at 473 per day.

The problem is, we have to look at nuance on both sides. I, as well as anyone looking at the data, needed to qualify Saturday's numbers with nuance (nobody mentioned them here, FWIW), just as we need to qualify the larger numbers of today with nuance. This applies to all aspects of debate surrounding this (or anything, really).

But there's an important idea found here: people are still watching the numbers and feel they aren't showing what (they hope?) makes most sense based on a political view of the numbers. Hence we will only discuss the death numbers when they're high, but pivot to alternative metrics when they're low. But will certainly show how much they're following them as soon as they swing in their favor (which is odd to phrase and/or view this scenario as being favorable). Also, there generally appear to be calls for everyone to eat crow each time Exum drops 15 in a blowout.

So, I hope you will continue to join with us in the death number discussions.
 
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candrew

Well-Known Member
Good short summary, and WHO’s response. It does sound like the aerosol spread may be the transmission mode that makes for superspreader events, and the reason why everyone wearing masks in any enclosed space is our best defense right now. Social distancing alone won’t work when microparticles can just float around and travel a hell of a lot further than 6 feet.


This may also be educational on aerosols:

To be completely honest I thought this debate was settled months ago - every primary source I've read on the virus from experts in the field refers to airborne transmission as a reality.
 

Red

Well-Known Member
To be completely honest I thought this debate was settled months ago - every primary source I've read on the virus from experts in the field refers to airborne transmission as a reality.
That was my understanding as well. At least when researching this yesterday, to refresh my memory, I found peer reviewed papers from May arguing this point.
 

Red

Well-Known Member
To be completely honest I thought this debate was settled months ago - every primary source I've read on the virus from experts in the field refers to airborne transmission as a reality.
In thinking about this further, the transmission prevention strategy has emphasized 2 things: wearing masks and 6’ social distancing. Someone correct me if I’m mistaken, but that twin strategy has the emphasis on airborne transmission from large droplets, from sneezing, etc. Not transmission as an aerosol. The 239 doctors who signed the open letter seem to be saying transmission via aerosol has not really been emphasized, even though, as you noted, the studies suggesting that mode of transmission are out there. And it is apparently the belief of those signatories that transmission by aerosol should be recognized as a major mode of transmission. The WHO’s response yesterday was ambiguous, and not a full throated endorsement of the open letter’s claim. Some claim, true or not I have no idea, that the WHO and CDC have not emphasized it out of a belief it will scare the **** out of the public.
 

Avery

Well-Known Member
Dear god. New record


25 percent positivity?!
That positivity rate is ugly. My only caution is that coming out of the holiday, it's possible we might have some backlog that wasn't distributed to Monday or Tuesday.

That said, no good way of spinning anything in this report if we've just willed ourselves to think that 500+ cases a day is acceptable whilst other countries have actually seen a decline.

Both our government and fellow citizens have all failed each other. We all own a piece of this mess deserved or not.
 

The Thriller

Well-Known Member
That positivity rate is ugly. My only caution is that coming out of the holiday, it's possible we might have some backlog that wasn't distributed to Monday or Tuesday.

That said, no good way of spinning anything in this report if we've just willed ourselves to think that 500+ cases a day is acceptable whilst other countries have actually seen a decline.

Both our government and fellow citizens have all failed each other. We all own a piece of this mess deserved or not.
Monday and Tuesday were ugly too!
Monday had 517 new cases 6 deaths
Tuesday had 564 new cases 4 deaths
Wednesday had 722 new cases 7 deaths
 

One Brow

Well-Known Member
Large scale retrospective study of hydrixychloroquine published today showed a halving of death rates .. interesting
If you meant the Henry Ford study, it turns out that it has some significant biases.

 
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