Coronavirus in China

The Thriller

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Saw this today and chuckled.
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I love how any criticism of fixable issues in our country triggers some people to say, “well then Leave.” Whether it be gun violence, universal health care, law enforcement, etc. As if this is the same country that was founded in the 18th century and everyone who had an idea on how to improve it was shunned and moved away.
 

Avery

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Sad to see that one-time presidential candidate and Trump surrogate Herman Cain passed away due to Covid. I still remember his 9-9-9 plan fondly.

Didn't agree with him politically and question some of his character, but death (a preventable one at that) is a bitter pill to swallow for anyone.
 

infection

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That link gives me an error but that might be on my end. I am fairly confident China has done more tests. I was just in Beijing where they did mass testing of about half the city and witnessed it. They have done over 90 million tests. Also producing the vast majority of tests for the world, but that's another issue. Either way your statement or quote that USA has done more tests in July than any other country has overall is incorrect.

Edit: I don't know how USA is testing but China is doing mass testing by panels. Meaning they do 1 test for I think 5-10 people then if it's positive everyone tests individually. So it might be less tests but more people. But still that's not a correct number.
I'm not sure how to respond to that. The first thing I'd note is quite possibly a certain level of irony when you're saying China's reports are accurate, while simultaneously not being able to access that website from China. The other is that multiple sources other than Johns Hopkins have stated the US has done more testing. I could be wrong, but my supposition on why they're saying that isn't because they think the US' response has been amazing or because they're in love with the administration. But let's play along with the numbers for a moment:

90 million tests? They're reporting that they've had a total of 84,125 confirmed cases. If we were to pretend, for instance, that the specificity for the testing was 99.9% (which is an ungodly generous number), then you'd see 90k cases from false positives alone! So China's either not being forthcoming about 1) the number of cases, 2) the number of tests, or 3) both.

I can't speak for or discount your personal experience of what you've witnessed with regard to testing. But I'd be curious when seeing a lot of testing there, how your ability to quantify that by observation is able to differentiate 100k from 1M from 10M from 200M. It reminds me of this scene from Harry Crumb:

 

infection

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Saw this today and chuckled.
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I get that this is an attempt at humor, and I'm being a stick in the mud, but things like this become telling because they require a certain cultural framework with which the contextualization of the scenario is supposed to make this humorous. But it requires the reinforcement of a number of things that aren't true in the way in which we perceive them.

For instance, here's the current deaths per 100k population, per Johns Hopkins, as of today:

Belgium: 86.11
UK: 62.5
Spain: 60.87
Italy: 58.13
Sweden: 56.27
USA: 46.07
France: 45.12
Netherlands: 35.78
Switzerland: 23.24
Germany: 11.2


And, yes, we have many, many more confirmed cases than these countries. But what about testing? Here's how many tests each of those same countries have run:

Belgium: 1.21M
UK: 9.12M
Spain: 4.35M
Italy: 6.69M
Sweden: Not disclosed.
USA: 53.83M
France: Not disclosed.
Netherlands: 0.96M
Switzerland: Not disclosed.
Germany: 8M


I get that this is way more information than what the superficial level humor is supposed to be. But it's important to look at because it identifies our cultural understanding of this problem, which doesn't align as smoothly with the actual data. And, yes, we can appeal to the idea that Trump's a chode, and many in the US are stupid, and that chodes and stupid people will mismanage pandemics through their stupidity, but ultimately we have to ask if these are comfortable beliefs that reinforce our biases, or if there are other important areas of critical thinking that need to happen that we bypass because "lol."
 
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The Thriller

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Sad to see that one-time presidential candidate and Trump surrogate Herman Cain passed away due to Covid. I still remember his 9-9-9 plan fondly.

Didn't agree with him politically and question some of his character, but death (a preventable one at that) is a bitter pill to swallow for anyone.
Maybe he wouldn’t have died if he had just worn a mask? He attended Donald’s Tulsa rally without a mask and downplayed the risks of covid for weeks.
Thoughts and prayers

D5DDF3C0-110F-43F1-8E26-0B29FC2DC76C.png
 

The Thriller

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This is becoming quite the news story. Both republican congressional aides and White House staffers are reporting that they’re being berated for wearing masks.

 

fishonjazz

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I get that this is an attempt at humor, and I'm being a stick in the mud, but things like this become telling because they require a certain cultural framework with which the contextualization of the scenario is supposed to make this humorous. But it requires the reinforcement of a number of things that aren't true in the way in which we perceive them.

For instance, here's the current deaths per 100k population, per Johns Hopkins, as of today:

Belgium: 86.11
UK: 62.5
Spain: 60.87
Italy: 58.13
Sweden: 56.27
USA: 46.07
France: 45.12
Netherlands: 35.78
Switzerland: 23.24
Germany: 11.2


And, yes, we have many, many more confirmed cases than these countries. But what about testing? Here's how many tests each of those same countries have run:

Belgium: 1.21M
UK: 9.12M
Spain: 4.35M
Italy: 6.69M
Sweden: Not disclosed.
USA: 53.83M
France: Not disclosed.
Netherlands: 0.96M
Switzerland: Not disclosed.
Germany: 8M


I get that this is way more information than what the superficial level humor is supposed to be. But it's important to look at because it identifies our cultural understanding of this problem, which doesn't align as smoothly with the actual data. And, yes, we can appeal to the idea that Trump's a chode, and many in the US are stupid, and that chodes and stupid people will mismanage pandemics through their stupidity, but ultimately we have to ask if these are comfortable beliefs that reinforce our biases, or if there are other important areas of critical thinking that need to happen that we bypass because "lol."
It was about other countries not letting us in to their countries because they think we suck at the handling of the pandemic. What part of that is untrue?
Have other countries not closed their borders to Americans? If the answer is yes, then why do you think they did?
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leftyjace

Well-Known Member
I get that this is an attempt at humor, and I'm being a stick in the mud, but things like this become telling because they require a certain cultural framework with which the contextualization of the scenario is supposed to make this humorous. But it requires the reinforcement of a number of things that aren't true in the way in which we perceive them.

For instance, here's the current deaths per 100k population, per Johns Hopkins, as of today:

Belgium: 86.11
UK: 62.5
Spain: 60.87
Italy: 58.13
Sweden: 56.27
USA: 46.07
France: 45.12
Netherlands: 35.78
Switzerland: 23.24
Germany: 11.2


And, yes, we have many, many more confirmed cases than these countries. But what about testing? Here's how many tests each of those same countries have run:

Belgium: 1.21M
UK: 9.12M
Spain: 4.35M
Italy: 6.69M
Sweden: Not disclosed.
USA: 53.83M
France: Not disclosed.
Netherlands: 0.96M
Switzerland: Not disclosed.
Germany: 8M


I get that this is way more information than what the superficial level humor is supposed to be. But it's important to look at because it identifies our cultural understanding of this problem, which doesn't align as smoothly with the actual data. And, yes, we can appeal to the idea that Trump's a chode, and many in the US are stupid, and that chodes and stupid people will mismanage pandemics through their stupidity, but ultimately we have to ask if these are comfortable beliefs that reinforce our biases, or if there are other important areas of critical thinking that need to happen that we bypass because "lol."
Why do you use deaths per 100K population, but you don't reflect tests by the same standard - per capita?

Let's take that same list of countries you put there, and for those that disclosed, show them as tests per 1M population. BTW, some of your "not disclosed" is BS.

Belgium: 139,627
UK: 231,744
Spain: 142,835
Italy: 111,690
Sweden: 80,200
USA: 172,956
France: 45,681
Netherlands: 56,189
Switzerland: 90,626
Germany: 95,532

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 

infection

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It was about other countries not letting us in to their countries because they think we suck at the handling of the pandemic. What part of that is untrue?
Have other countries not closed their borders to Americans? If the answer is yes, then why do you think they did?
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Exactly. Other countries, and us, think we suck at handling the pandemic. That's the starting premise. The data is fit in around the narrative. And the reason the meme is intended to be funny is due to a cultural understanding of a belief that we suck at managing the pandemic. First we mismanaged the pandemic by not doing testing, then we mismanaged the pandemic by the deaths, then when we did testing we mismanaged the pandemic because "OMG the cases." But when you actually look at a comparison of data, it doesn't exactly spell out what our cultural meme says it does.
 

infection

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Why do you use deaths per 100K population, but you don't reflect tests by the same standard - per capita?

Let's take that same list of countries you put there, and for those that disclosed, show them as tests per 1M population. BTW, some of your "not disclosed" is BS.

Belgium: 139,627
UK: 231,744
Spain: 142,835
Italy: 111,690
Sweden: 80,200
USA: 172,956
France: 45,681
Netherlands: 56,189
Switzerland: 90,626
Germany: 95,532

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The reason I did deaths per 100k and tests by total is because that's the data set I had. I had wanted consistency and was going to do that, but wasn't going to calculate those out from the data set I was using. I appreciate you linking it above. With regard to why the ones weren't disclosed, it's because they were not listed on the data set I provided (go click the link), and I didn't want to fill them in with different sources. But those were France, Switzerland, and Sweden. If you'll look at the results you've linked above, those omissions do not diminish my point but support it. So thank you for bringing that to the table.
 

fishonjazz

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Exactly. Other countries, and us, think we suck at handling the pandemic. That's the starting premise. The data is fit in around the narrative. And the reason the meme is intended to be funny is due to a cultural understanding of a belief that we suck at managing the pandemic. First we mismanaged the pandemic by not doing testing, then we mismanaged the pandemic by the deaths, then when we did testing we mismanaged the pandemic because "OMG the cases." But when you actually look at a comparison of data, it doesn't exactly spell out what our cultural meme says it does.
So the cultural understanding of our handling of the pandemic is worldwide (every culture believes we sucked) AND not accurate? Damn that deep state is a powerful mofo. The US was fantastic in their handling of the pandemic but Trumpers are the only ones who can see it. Sounds totally plausible lol.

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infection

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So the cultural understanding of our handling of the pandemic is worldwide (every culture believes we sucked) AND not accurate? Damn that deep state is a powerful mofo. The US was fantastic in their handling of the pandemic but Trumpers are the only ones who can see it. Sounds totally plausible lol.

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None of those are issues I've ever endorsed, implied, or spoken. But if there's a certain schema of expectation, this speaks to the societal perception of this as a meme that's not grounded in any reality (e.g. I've said those things?). My larger point is that if anyone was blinded to the data, the US is only standing out in terms of larger death totals (3rd largest country in the world, and our population is 4x the population of the largest country in western Europe) and case numbers. The former disappears when you correct for population. The latter remains present, but when you account for the fact that we're testing more and that our positive case numbers aren't translating at all to a proportional increase in deaths, it makes it harder to justify that the US is some large outlier. Unless, of course, we have some wonderful, magical healthcare system that's preventing all these deaths that would otherwise be suggested with such a high case load, but that magical healthcare system isn't something I've been hearing about, certainly not in the last decade. So if one were truly blinded to the data, they'd have an impossible time picking who's the US and who isn't when controlling for population.

The bottom line is that this is a pandemic. This is a virus. There are many variables that will account for what transpires with the virus, and politics is only a small part of that. What we're convincing ourselves is that politics is the main variable in the equation of COVID outcomes. And that's just not true. The US is not exceeding or "winning" on COVID compared to other nations. But the US is also not this drastic failure on COVID that everyone is talking about. If you'd like to make an argument otherwise, let's talk data. Let's not talk "hey, a lot of people are saying this, so it probably true."
 

fishonjazz

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None of those are issues I've ever endorsed, implied, or spoken. But if there's a certain schema of expectation, this speaks to the societal perception of this as a meme that's not grounded in any reality (e.g. I've said those things?). My larger point is that if anyone was blinded to the data, the US is only standing out in terms of larger death totals (3rd largest country in the world, and our population is 4x the population of the largest country in western Europe) and case numbers. The former disappears when you correct for population. The latter remains present, but when you account for the fact that we're testing more and that our positive case numbers aren't translating at all to a proportional increase in deaths, it makes it harder to justify that the US is some large outlier. Unless, of course, we have some wonderful, magical healthcare system that's preventing all these deaths that would otherwise be suggested with such a high case load, but that magical healthcare system isn't something I've been hearing about, certainly not in the last decade. So if one were truly blinded to the data, they'd have an impossible time picking who's the US and who isn't when controlling for population.

The bottom line is that this is a pandemic. This is a virus. There are many variables that will account for what transpires with the virus, and politics is only a small part of that. What we're convincing ourselves is that politics is the main variable in the equation of COVID outcomes. And that's just not true. The US is not exceeding or "winning" on COVID compared to other nations. But the US is also not this drastic failure on COVID that everyone is talking about. If you'd like to make an argument otherwise, let's talk data. Let's not talk "hey, a lot of people are saying this, so it probably true."
You say "the US is only standing out in terms of larger death totals (3rd largest country in the world, and our population is 4x the population of the largest country in western Europe) and case numbers."
Nah, the US also stands out for having a leader that says it will just magically go away. That the warm weather will kill it. That injecting disinfectant might be a good idea. Etc etc etc. There is no other country with a leader as idiotic as trump and that definitely makes us stand out.

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infection

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You say "the US is only standing out in terms of larger death totals (3rd largest country in the world, and our population is 4x the population of the largest country in western Europe) and case numbers."
Nah, the US also stands out for having a leader that says it will just magically go away. That the warm weather will kill it. That injecting disinfectant might be a good idea. Etc etc etc. There is no other country with a leader as idiotic as trump and that definitely makes us stand out.

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And how does that translate to the data?
 

Ron Mexico

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I'm not sure how to respond to that. The first thing I'd note is quite possibly a certain level of irony when you're saying China's reports are accurate, while simultaneously not being able to access that website from China. The other is that multiple sources other than Johns Hopkins have stated the US has done more testing. I could be wrong, but my supposition on why they're saying that isn't because they think the US' response has been amazing or because they're in love with the administration. But let's play along with the numbers for a moment:

90 million tests? They're reporting that they've had a total of 84,125 confirmed cases. If we were to pretend, for instance, that the specificity for the testing was 99.9% (which is an ungodly generous number), then you'd see 90k cases from false positives alone! So China's either not being forthcoming about 1) the number of cases, 2) the number of tests, or 3) both.

I can't speak for or discount your personal experience of what you've witnessed with regard to testing. But I'd be curious when seeing a lot of testing there, how your ability to quantify that by observation is able to differentiate 100k from 1M from 10M from 200M. It reminds me of this scene from Harry Crumb:

First, I can access that website just not the article you posted. It says not available. It might be now. Regardless it left off other countries besides China that made the statement false about USA testing more in a month then any country overall.

With my edit I agreed USA might have more tests than China if you count individual tests and not people tested. USA is not doing as good at efficient tests like other countries. Thats not the false statement I'm talking about. The false statement is USA tested more in July then any country has tested at all.

I can't say that I saw the exact number of people being tested but I know that they claimed to test a certain number of people in mass in Beijing when they were having cases for 30+ people for a few days. Yes, they do mass testing and there is plenty of evidence for it. Yes, they want to stop the virus at all costs here and take it to the extreme.

I was in the city and drove around. I saw many parks in Beijing with lines miles long with people spaced out to test. Everyone I know in the areas mass tested got tested and they said they went with their entire housing complex at the same time. Each complex is massive some in the 100k range. Areas that have millions in high risk were closed off and I had to detour a lot to get around them until tests were done which took a few days.

Tests are in shortage in USA and many places. China is supplying most of the tests in the world.

No, it's does not have to be that one of those things are false from China like you claim. You can excessively test. China doesn't count false positives. They only count confirmed cases. They retest to make sure before counting it. They also don't count asymptomatic cases the same, they count that separately, which are not included in those numbers you posted. I don't like that they count things that way, but that's how they do it.

There are reasons to discount some of the info from China about this virus, same with the USA.
 
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leftyjace

Well-Known Member
The reason I did deaths per 100k and tests by total is because that's the data set I had. I had wanted consistency and was going to do that, but wasn't going to calculate those out from the data set I was using. I appreciate you linking it above. With regard to why the ones weren't disclosed, it's because they were not listed on the data set I provided (go click the link), and I didn't want to fill them in with different sources. But those were France, Switzerland, and Sweden. If you'll look at the results you've linked above, those omissions do not diminish my point but support it. So thank you for bringing that to the table.
How do you figure it supports your position?
Testing numbers are high, but still within relatively close distance to a lot of the other countries, and also pales in comparison to the United Kingdom. I guess I’m not following the point you’re trying to make.
 
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