Coronavirus in China

The Thriller

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Um @colton a word please? ;)


BYU is leading the state in covid cases. It has more cases than Stanford and Cal combined. No wonder why it’s bleeding into their football team.

It has yet to beat Alabama. Alabama has almost as many covid cases as the entire California college and university system. I haven’t checked yet but I’d imagine Texas, Florida, Georgia are all seeing insane numbers too.

This pandemic is never going to end... sigh. Apparently this was organized by a BYU student. So I’d imagine cases are going to be spiking at both UVU and BYU over the next month.

 
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LogGrad98

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Eminence

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I wonder how much population density has to do with this?
Something for sure (though I imagine urbanization would be a better measure - eg Arizona isn't very dense technically, but very urban). You can certainly see it among US states where more rural states (Vermont/Maine/etc are doing better than the more urban ones).
 
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Beer

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Um @colton a word please? ;)




This pandemic is never going to end... sigh. Apparently this was organized by a BYU student. So I’d imagine cases are going to be spiking at both UVU and BYU over the next month.

Which leads me to, fat, old, unhealthy people on the verge of death, should not be the #1 priority. My wife, who's mom died at 45 8 years ago feels differently though, and I get that. I look at humans more in regards to nature, that sick and unhealthy will die and the healthy will be fine, I try not to be callous but that appears to be the reality of the situation.
 

The Thriller

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Ontario and greater Toronto area is certainly more densely populated than North Dakota for example.
Even adjusted for population density we are seeing far more cases and far more death than we should. Canada has a better health care system. Canada has taken extensive measures To ensure health and safety, like supplying citizens and businesses with relief money that is actually sufficient. Unlike our unemployment benefits, which were a sick joke. They ask strict questions at the border, demand quarantining for 14 days upon entering, and have mask mandates that are strictly followed. Their citizenry by and large are working in a cohesive manner to contain the virus.

America on the other hand has millions of uninsured. Those most vulnerable and uninsured are dying at a much higher clip than those with health care. Americans have resisted efforts to mitigate the virus while demanding that states “open up.” Americans are demanding foot game return. and their prime minister isn’t holding rallies like this:

 
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fishonjazz

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911 cases today. Cases have doubled in the past week.

Just nuts. Utah County 6x higher than the rest of the state.
My nephew tested positive today. He is 17 or 18. He has a sore throat and congestion and is a little lethargic.

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The Thriller

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911 cases today. Cases have doubled in the past week.

Just nuts. Utah County 6x higher than the rest of the state.
We had 911 cases today. 408 came from utah county, 338 from salt lake, and 165 from the rest of the state.

Positivity rate is skyrocketing, 16.7. That’s the 2nd highest I’ve seen since mid July once I started recording the positivity rate.

ICU is filling up. Just a week ago we were in the low 60s. Now we are up to 69 percent filled.

On 9/1 we had outbreaks in 25 schools and 125 sick employees/students. We are now up to 63 schools and 371 sick cases. Just on Monday we only had 260 sick cases.

Jordan school district had an emergency meeting yesterday to discuss Riverton high school. The health Dept recommended a 2 week shutdown. The board decided that Thursday and Friday was good enough. And that homecoming activities could continue. so they basically just gave the kids a long weekend.

This isn’t going to end well.
 

infection

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How close are we to herd mentality?
I know you say this as a joke, but we are actually much closer to herd immunity than people realize. The problem is people conceptualize herd immunity as a theoretical concept where you need 70+ percent of people with immunity, which we translate to mean antibodies. I've been pushing against this for a while now.

June 28:
Getting above 50+% of the population infected is so massive. My suspicion would be that it would top out at 25% before it dies down (not suggesting it gets there, just tops out there — at least this strain), and even then I think that may be determined in hindsight, just as a few years later they cake out saying that the actual infection rate of H1N1 was 20%, way higher than originally thought. And with the CDC saying the estimated mortality rate, as of now, is about 0.3%, I’d imagine this runs lower than that.
June 30:
I think herd immunity as a concept is more simplistic in theory than it is in reality, and may function more as a theoretical model than anything else. In any case, I was sharing that tweet not for the comments regarding it but just the graph. With regard to herd immunity, think before vaccines -- how many viruses infected the majority of the population before going away (or, the flips side of how many viruses go away before infecting the majority of the population)? There are way too many variables in the equation with any outbreak of anything, and we generally approach the idea of herd immunity in a vacuum. And I think the concept has been strictly reinforced as a result of public awareness of vaccines and the narrative surrounding them (not saying that's good or bad, just that it's important to know what's informing our assumptions about everything.)
I post this only to demonstrate the reality always looks like absolute insanity when compared with prevailing notions in society that are reinforced not for their accuracy, but because of their volume and repetition.

Yesterday from the British Medical Journal (one of the top 3-4 regarded medical journals):


What's published here isn't new. It's been known now for a while about people having T cell reactivity against COVID-19 (but universally derided by people with expertise in shaping medical public opinion but without expertise in science or medicine). This would put the herd immunity threshold more in the ballpark of 20-25%. Now, before everyone jumps on "geez that's still huge lol," you can't base this off of confirmed cases, as the seropositive rates are much, much higher. However, this ultimately doesn't matter. Science published doesn't matter because until it starts getting published by non -medical people in the non-medical journal New York Times, or talked about by non-medical people on network and cable news. This will not have any affect on public opinion, and most certainly no affect on public policy until those non-medical folks with the authority to deem something as 'expert' or 'science' decide to do so.
 
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Red

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It's been known now for a while about people having T cell reactivity against COVID-19 (but universally derided by people with expertise in shaping medical public opinion but without expertise in science or medicine).
I recall reading about this some time ago, I doubt it was in a medical journal, it must have been in a popular venue, and I factored it somewhat into what I understood might be the case with COVID-19. I recall thinking well, maybe it’s been around before somehow. I don’t recall it being universally derided, at least not at the time I became aware of it. I have also seen herd immunity threshold estimates of about 20%, although most seemed to settle on 40-70%.
 

infection

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I recall reading about this some time ago, I doubt it was in a medical journal, it must have been in a popular venue, and I factored it somewhat into what I understood might be the case with COVID-19. I recall thinking well, maybe it’s been around before somehow. I don’t recall it being universally derided, at least not at the time I became aware of it. I have also seen herd immunity threshold estimates of about 20%, although most seemed to settle on 40-70%.
That’s good that you’ve seen that. I just came across this that was posted 14 hours ago:


This is completely ridiculous. This is from a major news organization that wields a lot of influence over public opinion and they don’t know the difference between a case fatality rate and an infection fatality rate. Or, worse, they do know the difference.

But, moreover, what do people trust more: The British Medical Journal, which they’ve likely never heard of, or MSNBC, an institution so large and well known that it be conspiracy theory to suggest that they could get something so wrong?
 
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