Coronavirus in China


The Thriller

Well-Known Member
First, even if the number ended up being 400K that's still 16.7% off, which is a pretty huge error.

Second, by claiming we are on track for 400K deaths, you are asserting that there will be ~176,000 deaths from now until Dec 31, 2020. 176k deaths in 76 days.

How about we make a bet. If there are 400K or more covid19 deaths by the end of the year, you win and I delete my account. If there are less than 400k covid19 deaths by then, I win and you delete your account.
First of all, I’m not betting on that. Why would you think that would be an appropriate bet? Would you really feel good about that? I understand that online people say things that they normally wouldn’t in person, but that is was a wildly inappropriate thing to say.

Secondly, how accurate should experts be when projecting pandemic statistics? What is your background in epidemiology anyway?

Lastly, I’m not sure what your agenda is here. Diminish confidence in experts? Build Trust in the morons on Facebook? Experts have never claimed to be 100 percent accurate. But they know a hell of a lot more than your average person. Expertise matters!

Your last few posts have been demeaning and offensive. You’ve been unnecessarily combative and trivializing towards the effects of this virus. So be careful with this next post.
 
Last edited:

Jazz4ever

Well-Known Member
Yeah, that’s honestly one of the top 5 weirdest things anyone has ever said to me on this website. Super weird and incredibly insensitive. I’m glad I’m not the only one who thought that as well.
The U.S. has been averaging around 700 deaths a day very consistently for the last 3 months. We will be under 300,000 if that holds true so why would you say 400k??
 

The Thriller

Well-Known Member
The U.S. has been averaging around 700 deaths a day very consistently for the last 3 months. We will be under 300,000 if that holds true so why would you say 400k??
From what I’ve read, experts admit that we’re getting better at treatment but our new cases are exploding. So our ability to save lives is unfortunately negated by our exploding case rates. Forty-one states are seeing increasing cases and over 10 of them just saw record weeks (utah being one of them). That means hospitals will soon be overrun and deaths will follow. The ICU at the U already reports that is over capacity. That puts significant strains on our system. In fact, they describe it as “unsustainable.”


This is even before cold and flu season settles in. Again, our nation’s experts project much more sickness and death ahead of us because of our nation's Lack of leadership. In fact, one can easily make the case that Donald is exacerbating the problem by holding large super spreader events and with his continued politicizing of masks. We can’t contain the virus if containment policies aren’t enforced by state leaders and containment behaviors are mocked by large segments of the population. Refusing to follow science takes a toll.
 
Last edited:

Jazz4ever

Well-Known Member
From what I’ve read, experts admit that we’re getting better at treatment but our new cases are exploding. So our ability to save lives is unfortunately negated by our exploding case rates. Forty-one states are seeing increasing cases and over 10 of them just saw record weeks (utah being one of them). That means hospitals will soon be overrun and deaths will follow. The ICU at the U already reports that is over capacity. That puts significant strains on our system. In fact, they describe it as “unsustainable.”


This is even before cold and flu season settles in. Again, our nation’s experts project much more sickness and death ahead of us because of our nation's Lack of leadership. In fact, one can easily make the case that Donald is exacerbating the problem by holding large super spreader events and with his continued politicizing of masks. We can’t contain the virus if containment policies aren’t enforced by state leaders and containment behaviors are mocked by large segments of the population. Refusing to follow science takes a toll.
I think 350K is the worst case scenario. Our surging cases are in line with many other countries. It's almost like nature is pretty untameable...


 

The Thriller

Well-Known Member
I think 350K is the worst case scenario. Our surging cases are in line with many other countries. It's almost like nature is pretty untameable...


Opening up restaurants, gyms, bars, and borders is going to be a challenge until there’s a vaccine. Which is why mediation efforts are needed. We should avoid large super spreader rallies, wear masks as much as possible, have as much testing as possible. But we aren’t even trying that here.

I also think we shouldn’t forget that many other countries have contained the virus through masks, social distancing, and testing. South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Canada, denmark, and Germany have all set great examples. Too bad we’ve ignored them.
 

The Thriller

Well-Known Member
I don't 400K was thrillers number.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
And the 400,000 number is a number given by experts. My background is history and political science, not epidemiology. Two million was an early estimate with no mitigation and 350,000-450,000 are the estimates now by the Univ of Washington and other major modeling institutions. I hope for the lowest number possible. However, I defer to credible experts as this is their focus in training.
 

magic

Well-Known Member
First of all, I’m not betting on that. Why would you think that would be an appropriate bet? Would you really feel good about that? I understand that online people say things that they normally wouldn’t in person, but that is was a wildly inappropriate thing to say.

Secondly, how accurate should experts be when projecting pandemic statistics? What is your background in epidemiology anyway?

Lastly, I’m not sure what your agenda is here. Diminish confidence in experts? Build Trust in the morons on Facebook? Experts have never claimed to be 100 percent accurate. But they know a hell of a lot more than your average person. Expertise matters!

Your last few posts have been demeaning and offensive. You’ve been unnecessarily combative and trivializing towards the effects of this virus. So be careful with this next post.
You're not betting on that because you don't know how to put your money where your mouth is. It's ok for you to attempt to invoke fear in people, but it's not ok for people to call you out on your fear mongering and bias.

Also you could care less about what experts think if it doesn't support your political agenda. You'll make an argument based mostly on emotions and political bias, claim that "experts" think this way, and then pivot when the statistics prove you wrong, such as in this case.
 

The Thriller

Well-Known Member
You're not betting on that because you don't know how to put your money where your mouth is. It's ok for you to attempt to invoke fear in people, but it's not ok for people to call you out on your fear mongering and bias.

Also you could care less about what experts think if it doesn't support your political agenda. You'll make an argument based mostly on emotions and political bias, claim that "experts" think this way, and then pivot when the statistics prove you wrong, such as in this case.
Yep. That’s it. You caught me.

1602984356693.gif

annnnndddd after that constructive exchange, onto the block list you go.
 

magic

Well-Known Member
Oh no I've been blocked by the thriller, whatever will I do? This is such a devastating loss and I don't know how I'll be able to sleep. The thought of not getting notifications that the thriller has responded to my posts with illogical, bias statements sounds horrible. o_O lmao
 

lauriandres

Well-Known Member
Lastly, I’m not sure what your agenda is here. Diminish confidence in experts? Build Trust in the morons on Facebook? Experts have never claimed to be 100 percent accurate. But they know a hell of a lot more than your average person. Expertise matters!
Well, experts and authorities from USA, Europe and Asia also said, that 737 MAX is a safe airplane before the flights ET302 and JT610.

Why the experts have a "holy cow" status? IMHO today everybody can be an expert if the job title says so specially if you have the right connections. Nobody is blocking me from creating a "Lauriandres Super Research" business entity and claim that i am the expert? Even in my country there are plenty of crystal ball sellers who claim they know the stones they sell have all kind of healing etc properties.
IMHO nothing wrong when somebody predicts something and it is not accurate - problem is, if they continously receive guaranteed tax payers money for that.
 

One Brow

Well-Known Member
Why the experts have a "holy cow" status? IMHO today everybody can be an expert if the job title says so specially if you have the right connections. Nobody is blocking me from creating a "Lauriandres Super Research" business entity and claim that i am the expert?
Do you understand the difference between being an expert on something and claiming to be an expert?
 

lauriandres

Well-Known Member
Do you understand the difference between being an expert on something and claiming to be an expert?
So are 737MAX engineers and certify organizations experts or not? Remember, 737 MAX got in the beginning the green light from all the experts over the world and it seems, that all non US ones never did any testing and just trusted the results on paper.
IMHO there is not an 100% working method to verify who is an expert or not. There are plenty of experts who claim, that nuclear energy is bad, VW diesel engines are bad (although consume less fuel than some hybrids) etc etc. Well, in the Soviet time the experts told us that Stalin and Lenin are kind of good guys.
According to WHO the Taiwan specialists are no experts at all, because Taiwan is not an WHO member?
 

Gameface

Fight Voter Suppression!
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
So are 737MAX engineers and certify organizations experts or not? Remember, 737 MAX got in the beginning the green light from all the experts over the world and it seems, that all non US ones never did any testing and just trusted the results on paper.
IMHO there is not an 100% working method to verify who is an expert or not. There are plenty of experts who claim, that nuclear energy is bad, VW diesel engines are bad (although consume less fuel than some hybrids) etc etc. Well, in the Soviet time the experts told us that Stalin and Lenin are kind of good guys.
According to WHO the Taiwan specialists are no experts at all, because Taiwan is not an WHO member?
Do you understand the difference between "expert" and "omniscient"?
 

Avery

Well-Known Member
Top