Coronavirus in China

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Hekate, Jan 23, 2020.

  1. silesian

    silesian Well-Known Member

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    That is very weird. I work for a Australian company and was talking with my Chair today from Perth. She said Australia was under a Stage 2 shutdown, which avoided a lockdown (for now), and that there was no fixed time frame.
     
  2. Scat

    Scat Well-Known Member

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    My brother is a PA up at Huntsman and is dealing with this. He said that what they are seeing is that COVID-19 is less deadly than the flu. The problem is that when one person has the flu and is contagious, on average they spread the flu to 9 other people. With COVID-19 you are contagious the moment you contract it and it spreads at a much higher rate for a longer period of time. On average each contagious person will spread COVID-19 to 40-50 other people.
     
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  3. silesian

    silesian Well-Known Member

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    COVID 19 transmits at a higher rate, there is no vaccine, and it is (very likely) more lethal, and it will overwhelm our medical capabilities if not mitigated.

    Influenza does none of that.

    Panic is stupid

    So are the "flu is worse" analogies.
     
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  4. silesian

    silesian Well-Known Member

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    Doubters say "keep the economy rolling, this is not so bad" If we were to follow their advise, the outbreak would be severe and many more people would die

    So we take sensible mitigation steps, fewer people die, then doubters say "see, I was right, this was not so bad"

    These people are not patriots.
     
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  5. Zombie

    Zombie Well-Known Member

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    I don't know how you can look at what's happening in New York and Italy and still think this.
     
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  6. Rubashov

    Rubashov Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    lockdown shutdown same thing. its for 6 months but could be longer...
     
  7. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

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    We really don’t know what the mortality rate of Covid is at this point. Probably somewhere just below 1% if I had to guess since there are soooooo many people who have it who are asymptomatic and never get tested.

    That said, imo, based on how I see things playing out over the next 30-60+ days, this is a really bad take.

    As of around 1pm earlier today there had been 809 deaths so far in the U.S. Miniscule compared to annual flu numbers, yes. Except if you look at the rate at which it’s spreading while considering the simultaneous rate at which hospital beds and ventilators become void, **** becomes very scary.

    That number I provided, at just an 11% increase day over day means over 200,000 deaths in just 45 days. We’re blowing away 11% right now and just had the single most new cases in one day with over 10,000 new cases nationwide today. That doesn't bode well for weeks from now.

    Maybe I’m in the minority here but I don’t think we have this contained or will truly have it contained. Not like how China and South Korea handled ****. We’re an entirely different nation sure, but that’s immaterial to the discussion at hand.

    We could end up with a half million deaths in this country if not far more and it wouldn’t surprise me given the direction of the numbers, how it’s taken hold in many states, how it’s starting to in more, how limited our resources are, and how botched and presumably continued to be botched this **** has been from the get go by our CiC.

    And those 809 deaths at 1pm is already up to 931 deaths just six hours later. That’s a 15% increase in just six hours. More patients are being tested, many more will need the ventilators but there will soon be no more available. **** could get disastrously ugly very quickly in the next 1-3 weeks and beyond. Especially when you consider how many more cases we're seeing per day. And I think will see because Trump has retardedly handled this in baby steps.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  8. Gameface

    Gameface I actually REALLY like Gobert! Contributor 2018 Award Winner

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    I swear this is like watching a basketball game with someone and 3min in they are like "The Lakers aren't as good as everyone thinks they are. They only have 8 points. The Jazz average over 100 points per game. Obviously the Jazz are MUCH better but no one is paying attention to them because they're all freaked out over this Laker team that only has 8 points."
     
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  9. Avery

    Avery Well-Known Member

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    How would they have been a disaster? Expand on this thought a bit please.
     
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  10. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

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    There are over 60,000 cases in the country.

    We had over 10,000 new ones today.
     
  11. The Thriller

    The Thriller Well-Known Member

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    Woke up this morning with a dry cough and really tired. Hope it’s just some anxiety or a weak cold. I hadn’t been out to public places for almost two weeks other than the grocery store on Friday. Sigh...
     
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  12. rjfan

    rjfan Well-Known Member

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    I get it. Actually a disaster like that could be seen in real here, as a bastard genocide president (can't find much better words to a man doing what he's been doing) gone on the opposite direction of mitigation acts from governors, going as far as airing live on tv on denial of all the risks, actually pushing people to get back to regular life, thus actually encouraging a big amount of people to get out of their quarantines. What could be the start of a slowing down the advance from the virus could possibly getting back on skyrocket because of this action (not that the ones before were any good), if not speed up some of its spreading.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
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  13. candrew

    candrew Well-Known Member

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    My wife had a pretty disturbing story to tell me:

    She works part time for the Dept. of Health in Plainfield, NJ. It's a poor/working class town in Central New Jersey. Her usual job is pretty mundane - she works 12 hours a week keeping track of folks who have and haven't gotten licenses for their pets; but with the current situation it's pretty much all hands on deck dealing with the virus. The number of cases in Plainfield have almost quadrupled in the past week. That's not the disturbing part.

    Apparently the way it works is a person tests positive for the virus, the medical facility alerts the state and the state alerts the township and the township calls the individual to provide guidance on what they should do. They also ask them where they work and if they've been in contact with other people recently (the quarantine has been going on in NJ for about a week and a half now). Many people are refusing to answer questions, others are just flat-out hanging up the phone. Obviously these people are still functionable enough to go to work and are doing so out of fear of losing their job. Others might have a "questionable" citizenship status and are worried about getting deported.

    I don't know how to editorialize this without sounding melodramatic - I see this eventually becoming a disease associated with class/status. Given the present climate I can only imagine how ugly things are going to get.
     
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  14. silesian

    silesian Well-Known Member

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    you do understand that republicans are now holding up approval because unemployment payments are too high.

    that seems worse than the democratic Christmas tree additions.
     
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  15. silesian

    silesian Well-Known Member

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    So ventilator purchases are limited by funding?

    Omg, please tell me no one is dumb enough to believe that.
     
  16. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

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    Many from our bilingual dept have gone to Plainfield in the last two years. It wouldn’t surprise me if the latter is widely affected for the reasons you’ve stated.
     
  17. Zombie

    Zombie Well-Known Member

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    I mean, look at how many symptomless celebrities and sports stars have gotten tests while sick people are finding it impossible in many places. I saw an article the other day about the wealthy contacting ventilator manufacturers to purchase one for themselves "just in case." They're fleeing big cities and headed for their vacation homes in small towns to try to escape the virus, upsetting yearlong residents.

    This, just like any other disease, will have an impact on the wealthy on a far different scale than the rest of us.
     
  18. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

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    Three staff members have it in just district now.
     
  19. LogGrad98

    LogGrad98 Well-Known Member Contributor

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    What is the evidence that COVID-19 is more lethal? Flu kills more people in wider age groups. Even the most conservatives estimates from experts on actual infection rates puts flu, with vaccines, at about twice as deadly. The evidence just isn't there to support that assertion.
     
  20. LogGrad98

    LogGrad98 Well-Known Member Contributor

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    How can I think anything but? Looking at what is happening in New York it's only worse if you assume that every single case is exactly the number that is being diagnosed. Not a single expert believes that. Most believe that the actual rate of infection is minimum double, with some estimates in factors of 10 greater than actually reported cases. On that scale, even without a vaccine, it's half as deadly as the flu at it's worst, and that's with vaccines for the flu.
     

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