Coronavirus in China

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Hekate, Jan 23, 2020.

  1. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

    22,789
    6,473
    373
    Jul 14, 2015
    That’s only because we’re 10-12 days behind them. We are going to destroy their deaths.
     
  2. Scat

    Scat Well-Known Member

    6,797
    1,251
    263
    May 26, 2010
  3. RandyForRubio

    RandyForRubio Well-Known Member

    9,132
    1,608
    228
    Mar 9, 2015
    You're right. You're also willing to discuss, willing to change. I don't think Thriller is.

    I guess I should've said left compared to PJF, as even PJF isn't a far right winger.
     
    fishonjazz and One Brow like this.
  4. RandyForRubio

    RandyForRubio Well-Known Member

    9,132
    1,608
    228
    Mar 9, 2015
    I doubt it.

    You have to assume that we have a lot more cases that are unidentified. So it's probably transmitting more than we realize, yet still killing less than expected. It's early, but it's a positive sign.
     
    fishonjazz likes this.
  5. Avery

    Avery Well-Known Member

    3,478
    1,528
    228
    May 26, 2010
    Thanks for posting. I think we can all agree that more people have it than are tested - what that number is will never truly be known.

    In the end, who is right and wrong won't really matter. Thousands and thousands of people will have died, economies will have tanked and more crippling debt will be added to our ledger.

    There are no winners or losers - we've all lost.
     
    JazzGal and fishonjazz like this.
  6. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

    22,789
    6,473
    373
    Jul 14, 2015
    It’s a foregone conclusion.

    We had 13,000 new cases yesterday. We have 12,600+ already today.

    We went from 819 deaths yesterday at 1:45pm to 1,100 today. That’s a 34% increase which isn’t an anomaly.


    At a 22% increase each day, we’ll be at 1,158,742 deaths come May 1.

    The rate won’t stay that high for five weeks but it very well could for 3+ before starting to come down.
     
  7. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

    22,789
    6,473
    373
    Jul 14, 2015
    I’m guessing when we’re all said and done we finish with over 500,000 deaths. One million is a definite possibility.
     
  8. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

    22,789
    6,473
    373
    Jul 14, 2015
    I’ll post more later.
     
  9. latin jazz

    latin jazz Well-Known Member

    2,213
    1,356
    233
    Aug 6, 2013
    No one knows really as Italy might also have more cases than what is being reported. And U.S. is just at the begining of the outbreak, when there are less deaths. But for everyone's sake, let's hope the virus is not as deadly as we think. No one wants more deaths.
     
  10. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

    22,789
    6,473
    373
    Jul 14, 2015
    I know. This isn’t rocket science here. It’s basic math. We will have far more deaths than Italy.
     
  11. Joe Bagadonuts

    Joe Bagadonuts Well-Known Member

    10,548
    1,684
    228
    Aug 23, 2010
    Do you have links to anyone actually saying this, or are you just making it up?
     
  12. JimLes

    JimLes Well-Known Member

    2,861
    1,431
    233
    Sep 20, 2010
    Jazzmix, MVP, Gameface and 1 other person like this.
  13. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

    22,789
    6,473
    373
    Jul 14, 2015
    Italy's at 7,503 total deaths and their numbers have been trending down now for about five days. And they've quarantined pretty hardcore.

    We're at nearly 1,200 deaths and continuing to trend up, still about 2-3 weeks away from our peak by all accounts. We've sucked so far as quarantining goes. Our numbers are going up at insane rates--30-50% rates daily as it's just started to take hold in more and more states. We will soon be out of hospital beds and ventilators. Healthcare workers will have to choose who to save, who to dismiss. In NYC/north Jersey/Long Island alone, you have about 25-30 million people. If 1/4 of those people get it (the number thrown around is 1 out of 3 and it would be easier to get it here because it's so densely populated), that's 6 million people let's say. If 1% of those die, that's 60,000 people. Let's round that down to 50,000. That's still 50,000 deaths for what amounts to about 7% of the nation's population.


    Based on the increases in cases, the increases in deaths shouldn't be too far behind. I'm guessing we'll start to see about 1,000 deaths a day in 12-15 days. However, if we go up at about 20% day over day,

    That's not even close to enough to hit the 1.1 million mark. But you get the point. Italy is trending down and should continue to as their quarantine has started to work. We're trending up like crazy and not that far behind them and there's no end in sight with the direction we've had from the ******* in Chief.
     
  14. Wes Mantooth

    Wes Mantooth Well-Known Member

    22,789
    6,473
    373
    Jul 14, 2015
    I'm guessing in three weeks we have a total of over 30,000 deaths. Possibly as many as 50,000.
     
  15. fishonjazz

    fishonjazz Well-Known Member Contributor 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

    58,034
    12,930
    388
    Nov 4, 2010
    This
    Every solution ends in suck

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
     
  16. Gameface

    Gameface I actually REALLY like Gobert! Contributor 2018 Award Winner

    25,770
    8,072
    463
    May 25, 2010
    The places that have had large outbreaks that have been brought under control are doing so by instituting serious quarantines.

    I'm wondering if we're going to see another wave in those places as quarantines are lifted?
     
  17. fishonjazz

    fishonjazz Well-Known Member Contributor 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

    58,034
    12,930
    388
    Nov 4, 2010
    I have seen it said a lot.
    Hell, I have basically said it.

    Basically, many people are more scared of a great depression style economy than they are of the virus and think that we should loosen restrictions and open business back up and get back to work even though that would guarantee more deaths due to the virus (mostly to older people)

    I flip flop on a daily basis almost with how I feel.

    I think that a great depression style economy would kill far more people than the virus. Old, young, and in between.

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
     
  18. latin jazz

    latin jazz Well-Known Member

    2,213
    1,356
    233
    Aug 6, 2013
    Certainly. I was questioning some of the assumptions about how deadly it is and how many have it. Not which country will have more deaths. We all want this to be less deadly than what the numbers suggest so far. But it isn't looking good (and because US has a lower rate of deaths now, doesn't mean that % can be extrapolated). But as I said, let's hope is not as deadly (%) as in Italy.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  19. Joe Bagadonuts

    Joe Bagadonuts Well-Known Member

    10,548
    1,684
    228
    Aug 23, 2010
    Anyone who says that is sick. I really doubt you said what he claimed. There is a vast difference between saying, "You know, it's totally okay to sacrifice a few tens of thousands of old or sick people, if it means a stronger economy for the survivors," and "Maybe it would make sense to quarantine only the sick and elderly rather than shutting down everyone given that economic damage of this quarantine is almost incalculable and the survival rate of this disease for people other than those in high-risk categories is quite high."
     
  20. Scat

    Scat Well-Known Member

    6,797
    1,251
    263
    May 26, 2010
    @JimLes @One Brow @Gameface You all need to read the entire article. It explains why engineers are better at predicting models than physicians. This person has helped create models in Liberia to quell ebola outbreaks. He did postdoctoral work at the the Center of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at Yale University’s school of public health. He has quite a bit of experience in the field.
    Sounds like is more than qualified to speak on the subject.
     
    Hekate likes this.

Share This Page