RandyForRubio

Well-Known Member
That’s only because we’re 10-12 days behind them. We are going to destroy their deaths.
I doubt it.

You have to assume that we have a lot more cases that are unidentified. So it's probably transmitting more than we realize, yet still killing less than expected. It's early, but it's a positive sign.
 

Avery

Well-Known Member
Thanks for posting. I think we can all agree that more people have it than are tested - what that number is will never truly be known.

In the end, who is right and wrong won't really matter. Thousands and thousands of people will have died, economies will have tanked and more crippling debt will be added to our ledger.

There are no winners or losers - we've all lost.
 

Wes Mantooth

Well-Known Member
I doubt it.

You have to assume that we have a lot more cases that are unidentified. So it's probably transmitting more than we realize, yet still killing less than expected. It's early, but it's a positive sign.
It’s a foregone conclusion.

We had 13,000 new cases yesterday. We have 12,600+ already today.

We went from 819 deaths yesterday at 1:45pm to 1,100 today. That’s a 34% increase which isn’t an anomaly.


At a 22% increase each day, we’ll be at 1,158,742 deaths come May 1.

The rate won’t stay that high for five weeks but it very well could for 3+ before starting to come down.
 

latin jazz

Well-Known Member
I doubt it.

You have to assume that we have a lot more cases that are unidentified. So it's probably transmitting more than we realize, yet still killing less than expected. It's early, but it's a positive sign.
No one knows really as Italy might also have more cases than what is being reported. And U.S. is just at the begining of the outbreak, when there are less deaths. But for everyone's sake, let's hope the virus is not as deadly as we think. No one wants more deaths.
 

Wes Mantooth

Well-Known Member
No one knows really as Italy might also have more cases than what is being reported. And U.S. is just at the begining of the outbreak, when there are less deaths. But for everyone's sake, let's hope the virus is not as deadly as we think. No one wants more deaths.
I know. This isn’t rocket science here. It’s basic math. We will have far more deaths than Italy.
 

Joe Bagadonuts

Well-Known Member
Today: "You know, it's totally okay to sacrifice a few tens of thousands of old or sick people, if it means a stronger economy for the survivors. There is a very real trade-off between life and prosperity"
Do you have links to anyone actually saying this, or are you just making it up?
 

Wes Mantooth

Well-Known Member
Italy's at 7,503 total deaths and their numbers have been trending down now for about five days. And they've quarantined pretty hardcore.

We're at nearly 1,200 deaths and continuing to trend up, still about 2-3 weeks away from our peak by all accounts. We've sucked so far as quarantining goes. Our numbers are going up at insane rates--30-50% rates daily as it's just started to take hold in more and more states. We will soon be out of hospital beds and ventilators. Healthcare workers will have to choose who to save, who to dismiss. In NYC/north Jersey/Long Island alone, you have about 25-30 million people. If 1/4 of those people get it (the number thrown around is 1 out of 3 and it would be easier to get it here because it's so densely populated), that's 6 million people let's say. If 1% of those die, that's 60,000 people. Let's round that down to 50,000. That's still 50,000 deaths for what amounts to about 7% of the nation's population.


Based on the increases in cases, the increases in deaths shouldn't be too far behind. I'm guessing we'll start to see about 1,000 deaths a day in 12-15 days. However, if we go up at about 20% day over day,

That's not even close to enough to hit the 1.1 million mark. But you get the point. Italy is trending down and should continue to as their quarantine has started to work. We're trending up like crazy and not that far behind them and there's no end in sight with the direction we've had from the ******* in Chief.
 

fishonjazz

Well-Known Member
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
Thanks for posting. I think we can all agree that more people have it than are tested - what that number is will never truly be known.

In the end, who is right and wrong won't really matter. Thousands and thousands of people will have died, economies will have tanked and more crippling debt will be added to our ledger.

There are no winners or losers - we've all lost.
This
Every solution ends in suck

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Gameface

Black Lives Matter
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
The places that have had large outbreaks that have been brought under control are doing so by instituting serious quarantines.

I'm wondering if we're going to see another wave in those places as quarantines are lifted?
 

fishonjazz

Well-Known Member
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
Do you have links to anyone actually saying this, or are you just making it up?
I have seen it said a lot.
Hell, I have basically said it.

Basically, many people are more scared of a great depression style economy than they are of the virus and think that we should loosen restrictions and open business back up and get back to work even though that would guarantee more deaths due to the virus (mostly to older people)

I flip flop on a daily basis almost with how I feel.

I think that a great depression style economy would kill far more people than the virus. Old, young, and in between.

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latin jazz

Well-Known Member
I know. This isn’t rocket science here. It’s basic math. We will have far more deaths than Italy.
Certainly. I was questioning some of the assumptions about how deadly it is and how many have it. Not which country will have more deaths. We all want this to be less deadly than what the numbers suggest so far. But it isn't looking good (and because US has a lower rate of deaths now, doesn't mean that % can be extrapolated). But as I said, let's hope is not as deadly (%) as in Italy.
 
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Joe Bagadonuts

Well-Known Member
I have seen it said a lot.
Hell, I have basically said it.

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Anyone who says that is sick. I really doubt you said what he claimed. There is a vast difference between saying, "You know, it's totally okay to sacrifice a few tens of thousands of old or sick people, if it means a stronger economy for the survivors," and "Maybe it would make sense to quarantine only the sick and elderly rather than shutting down everyone given that economic damage of this quarantine is almost incalculable and the survival rate of this disease for people other than those in high-risk categories is quite high."
 

Scat

Well-Known Member
"Dr. Yamin is an engineer, not a physician."

I stopped reading right there. If there's anything worse than morons with no education talking ****, it's morons with irrelevant education talking ****.
@JimLes @One Brow @Gameface You all need to read the entire article. It explains why engineers are better at predicting models than physicians. This person has helped create models in Liberia to quell ebola outbreaks. He did postdoctoral work at the the Center of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at Yale University’s school of public health. He has quite a bit of experience in the field.
Yamin currently heads the Laboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis in TAU’s engineering faculty. His primary field of work is development of models for the spread of infectious diseases, with an emphasis on viruses responsible for respiratory ailments, such as flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), which causes bronchitis. He is actually somewhat optimistic about the models he has developed for the spread of the coronavirus, which is also a respiratory disease.
Sounds like is more than qualified to speak on the subject.
 
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