What's new

Coronavirus

To a % of the population, it is. The mantra of many of those is survival of the fittest, just don't make me change my plans. It's why you see swamped pool parties and political rallies with no enforced precautions.

But more people think Covid is an issue vs. those that don't and those people are pretty clear about how they'll vote in November.

Right - the vast majority of people are on board with masks and social distancing whenever possible. But at this point there isn't a overwhelming demand to do something radically different or go backwards and shut things down again for the sake of the several hundred people dying a day. It seems obvious we're going to slow burn this thing until a vaccine is developed.
 
I was under the impression that this was already well known....



Good short summary, and WHO’s response. It does sound like the aerosol spread may be the transmission mode that makes for superspreader events, and the reason why everyone wearing masks in any enclosed space is our best defense right now. Social distancing alone won’t work when microparticles can just float around and travel a hell of a lot further than 6 feet.


This may also be educational on aerosols:

 
Good short summary, and WHO’s response. It does sound like the aerosol spread may be the transmission mode that makes for superspreader events, and the reason why everyone wearing masks in any enclosed space is our best defense right now. Social distancing alone won’t work when microparticles can just float around and travel a hell of a lot further than 6 feet.


This may also be educational on aerosols:


Which makes face to face school a complete and utter nightmare from hell. Literally every school day will be a super spreader event. The AC will infect teachers, admins, Etc students so quickly.
 
“bUt ThE dEaTh RaTeS!”

I’d encourage everyone to check out the deaths from today. Sounds like these last few weeks of younger people getting sick And overwhelming ICUs is finally beginning to manifest in deaths. We haven’t been this high since June 11. The next week should be interesting.
 
“bUt ThE dEaTh RaTeS!”

I’d encourage everyone to check out the deaths from today. Sounds like these last few weeks of younger people getting sick And overwhelming ICUs is finally beginning to manifest in deaths. We haven’t been this high since June 11. The next week should be interesting.

Probably a bit of backlog from the holidays to a degree, we will see how things progress.

Dear leader is telling us how he saved hundreds of thousands of lives today of course.
 
“bUt ThE dEaTh RaTeS!”

I’d encourage everyone to check out the deaths from today. Sounds like these last few weeks of younger people getting sick And overwhelming ICUs is finally beginning to manifest in deaths. We haven’t been this high since June 11. The next week should be interesting.
This was not unexpected. Here’s my post and analysis from Saturday, when numbers were very low (and when there were crickets):



Tuesday is always the highest day of the week, because Sunday and Monday are the reports for the weekend. Sunday is always much lower than Saturday. This past Saturday being the 4th, we saw numbers drop to 265, down from 512 the Saturday before on the 27th. The Tuesday surge was predictable (I was off by 10%), as was the response to it. If you take an average of the weekend days through the weekend correction catch up day (Saturday through Tuesday), then this most recent average for the 4th-7th is 475 per day, up slightly from the four-day average from the 27th-30th at 473 per day.

The problem is, we have to look at nuance on both sides. I, as well as anyone looking at the data, needed to qualify Saturday's numbers with nuance (nobody mentioned them here, FWIW), just as we need to qualify the larger numbers of today with nuance. This applies to all aspects of debate surrounding this (or anything, really).

But there's an important idea found here: people are still watching the numbers and feel they aren't showing what (they hope?) makes most sense based on a political view of the numbers. Hence we will only discuss the death numbers when they're high, but pivot to alternative metrics when they're low. But will certainly show how much they're following them as soon as they swing in their favor (which is odd to phrase and/or view this scenario as being favorable). Also, there generally appear to be calls for everyone to eat crow each time Exum drops 15 in a blowout.

So, I hope you will continue to join with us in the death number discussions.
 
Last edited:
Good short summary, and WHO’s response. It does sound like the aerosol spread may be the transmission mode that makes for superspreader events, and the reason why everyone wearing masks in any enclosed space is our best defense right now. Social distancing alone won’t work when microparticles can just float around and travel a hell of a lot further than 6 feet.


This may also be educational on aerosols:


To be completely honest I thought this debate was settled months ago - every primary source I've read on the virus from experts in the field refers to airborne transmission as a reality.
 
To be completely honest I thought this debate was settled months ago - every primary source I've read on the virus from experts in the field refers to airborne transmission as a reality.

That was my understanding as well. At least when researching this yesterday, to refresh my memory, I found peer reviewed papers from May arguing this point.
 
To be completely honest I thought this debate was settled months ago - every primary source I've read on the virus from experts in the field refers to airborne transmission as a reality.

In thinking about this further, the transmission prevention strategy has emphasized 2 things: wearing masks and 6’ social distancing. Someone correct me if I’m mistaken, but that twin strategy has the emphasis on airborne transmission from large droplets, from sneezing, etc. Not transmission as an aerosol. The 239 doctors who signed the open letter seem to be saying transmission via aerosol has not really been emphasized, even though, as you noted, the studies suggesting that mode of transmission are out there. And it is apparently the belief of those signatories that transmission by aerosol should be recognized as a major mode of transmission. The WHO’s response yesterday was ambiguous, and not a full throated endorsement of the open letter’s claim. Some claim, true or not I have no idea, that the WHO and CDC have not emphasized it out of a belief it will scare the **** out of the public.
 
Dear god. New record



25 percent positivity?!


That positivity rate is ugly. My only caution is that coming out of the holiday, it's possible we might have some backlog that wasn't distributed to Monday or Tuesday.

That said, no good way of spinning anything in this report if we've just willed ourselves to think that 500+ cases a day is acceptable whilst other countries have actually seen a decline.

Both our government and fellow citizens have all failed each other. We all own a piece of this mess deserved or not.
 
That positivity rate is ugly. My only caution is that coming out of the holiday, it's possible we might have some backlog that wasn't distributed to Monday or Tuesday.

That said, no good way of spinning anything in this report if we've just willed ourselves to think that 500+ cases a day is acceptable whilst other countries have actually seen a decline.

Both our government and fellow citizens have all failed each other. We all own a piece of this mess deserved or not.

Monday and Tuesday were ugly too!
Monday had 517 new cases 6 deaths
Tuesday had 564 new cases 4 deaths
Wednesday had 722 new cases 7 deaths
 
I'm curious what everyone thinks about Ron Paul's diatribes about Covid.
If you check out his Twitter profile, he is full-on saying that the media is turning this into more than it needs to be.
Keep in mind, Ron Paul besides being a retired politician is, in fact, a physician.
What do you guys think about his perspectives?

 
I'm curious what everyone thinks about Ron Paul's diatribes about Covid.
If you check out his Twitter profile, he is full-on saying that the media is turning this into more than it needs to be.
Keep in mind, Ron Paul besides being a retired politician is, in fact, a physician.
What do you guys think about his perspectives?


He's a gynecologist that hasn't practiced since the early 70's. I don't think he's more of an expert than others that are actively practicing or have studied a lifetime in the study of epidemiology.

You can't expect a mechanic who hasn't worked on cars for 50 years to fix a Tesla.
 
I'm curious what everyone thinks about Ron Paul's diatribes about Covid.
If you check out his Twitter profile, he is full-on saying that the media is turning this into more than it needs to be.
Keep in mind, Ron Paul besides being a retired politician is, in fact, a physician.
What do you guys think about his perspectives?

I haven’t seen a ton of what Ron Paul is saying, but there are a number of sentiments we may share, and I am an actively practicing physician. I would qualify that, however, by stating that I by no means represent a median opinion, unless there’s a larger silent majority (which there may be).
He's a gynecologist that hasn't practiced since the early 70's. I don't think he's more of an expert than others that are actively practicing or have studied a lifetime in the study of epidemiology.

You can't expect a mechanic who hasn't worked on cars for 50 years to fix a Tesla.
This is generally true. However, the problem isn’t so much that Ron Paul is a retired OBGyn far removed from clinical practice, but that so much of what’s driven and passed around in society, and what’s strongly driving our societal understandings, comes from people infinitely less qualified than Ron Paul. But because it comes across superficially as in general agreement with orthodoxy, credentials are bestowed by proxy for those perceived as being on the side of science.

So, while it would be silly to assume a mechanic from the 70s could intelligibly look at a Tesla, I’m not sure how to respond to a coalition of people working at a bicycle repair shop, marketing advisors, and mailmen on how to look at a Tesla because they follow Elon Musk on Twitter and can regurgitate some of the lingo.
 
Grabbed a drink at Holiday and of 10 customers in the store, five were maskless.

Mandates are useless if not enforced and I’m sure these same individuals are the ones who will complain about everything being closed.
 
Top