My frontline can beat up your frontline - Why I'm giddy.

[ShortShorts]

The TLDR: Our front line kicks *** and not just because we love them and the eyeball test is compelling. I'd take them objectively right now over any other in the league.
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I have only started a post once before, back around the time when PKM invited all the lurkers to give a wave (dude - do that as an annual event). However, I'm so excited for the future of late that I can hardly contain myself. So I thought I'd chime in with a thread if for nothing more than to see what's in my head on a page.

I love our front line. Gobert, Favors, Hayward just might be the front line (meaning SF,PF,C) that I would take right now over any other in the league. That's not hyperbole that's real. Being young, still improving and with a lot of good years ahead I think any objective observer would have them in the conversation. Most others are either aging, not balanced enough, or (really this applies to almost any team in the league) just not as good as our starting 3 right now. Today.

I love stats, and though a good eyeball check validates them, here is something to share. Advanced stats, yes, they have problems - PER is way offensively focused, intangibles are missed, chemistry is missed in many instances but I still think the analysis below tells a big story. Our starting frontline are all in the top 30 in the league in this across the board analysis I threw together. Not top 30 for front line players, top 30 across the board.

The analysis (breeze through or get ready to geek out a little): I took BPM (wish it was adjusted BPM but this is what BkRef has), VORP and PER. Then totalled them but scaled PER to a third (its scale is larger than the other two). The results are in the attached image. Rudy, is a freaking beast, as we've all realized but this suggests he's CURRENTLY one of the most valuable players in the league. Hayward and Favors both come in very strong. The ranking passes the eyeball test also, with the top overall ten like an allstar list and whos who for MVP candidates ( Rudy is in there - ok so maybe even I, kool-aid drinker that I am don't think he's top 10). I think this is as reasonable a purely statistical look at players as we could get without GM and staff-only analytics packages.

That said our guard line holds us back - simply put: big time. We all know this. But I think this is easily fixable with either FA moves (this may be the most compelling glut of quality PGs the league has ever seen) OR watching Exum, Burks, Burke + draft pick [crosses fingers for ping pong balls] become what our hearts, if not fully yet our minds, hope they can. If we had a solid guard line up and perhaps upgraded our bench with just one person we'd be contenders THIS YEAR.

Anyway, bear with me - of late I've been giddy for the next several years to play out. Thanks for letting me drop my two cents. And here's to hoisting the Larry O'Brien in the ESA before the decade is over!

Image of the analysis:

Other thoughts:
* Ahhgg! - how do we keep this front line together financially and still get/pay a solid backcourt?
* Quin Snyder has won me over - defense and team game
* Burks ... just why did that have to happen?
* DL don't get a major FA that doesn't peak with our core (i.e. is older than 27 right now) - I think you're moving this way anyway
* miss Kanter (wasn't a hater, actually liked him) but think that financially he was gone this summer regardless so better to get something in return
* I still be lurking when I can - appreciate the board and all your insights a ton

 

[Former Member]

Good post. I'm not exactly sure what those stats mean, but they seem pretty impressive.

The Jazz fan base is exploding with hope right now. It has been a joy to read.

 

[zman1527]

Great post. I had similar thoughts as you yesterday, but have no inclination to do the stats.

I would almost take it down to Rudy and Favors. With just those two starting every night, you know you are going to have great defense. Fill in around them. And we can have them for many years. Not downgrading any of the other players, they could be exactly what we need, but to me it is about the Block Brothers.

 

[gregbroncs]

You will probably have people come in here with a better big man rotation. I'd still take these guys going forward. They all still have room to grow and they are all still younger than the typical peak for players. I have high hopes for this entire rotation. I can see some trimming still needing to be done (ala Kanter) But for the most part I like where the team is headed.

 

[ONE LOVE]

Great post - there's been some really good ones lately.


Love you contribution bro, Rep'd.

 

[ONE LOVE]

Quick question - what are VORP and BPM?

 

[Goodluckchuck]

I have been on this bandwagon all year. I started seeing it right after the Christmas break. We were keeping up with teams that we shouldn't have been. The last 3 years under Corbin, I knew when a blowout would happen. And 9 times out of 10, I wouldn't even watch the games. But when we beat the bulls in Chicago this year. And the way we beat them. I looked at my wife, and I said "Oh ****, ****, bitch and ***! In 3 years time, we could be very very ****ing dangerous."

And the beauty of it. The NBA can't stop it. We are building a defensive mad house. And I looooooove it!

 

[Stifle Tower]

You will probably have people come in here with a better big man rotation. I'd still take these guys going forward. They all still have room to grow and they are all still younger than the typical peak for players. I have high hopes for this entire rotation. I can see some trimming still needing to be done (ala Kanter) But for the most part I like where the team is headed.

Agree. I notice the list contains guards, too, so pretty impressive we have #9, #29 and #30. Not familiar enough with all the stats to weigh in on the way the analysis and totals were done. But just the eye test tells me we're on the right track. These are all players who have yet to hit their primes and we're already an amazing defensive team.

Conspicuously absent was Kanter. I wonder where he ranks on the list?

And #9 for Gobert...if that truly holds and he keeps improving. WOW!

As for how we keep them together, I honestly do think they'll take a bit less than max to all stay together under Quin. You can tell these guys really like each other. I think we can keep a solid 6 together and then just have to rely on drafting well to always have another 2-3 of the rotation on rookie deals. The backfill can be done with vets wanting to win championships. We're entering the Rudy Dynasty!

 

[akirac73]

Good stuff. Please post more.

 

[ShortShorts]

Broncs - yeah, if I wasn't clear this wasn't best frontcourt this year (Memphis, Chicago, maybe Dallas in the running) but as overall value based on current and future potential - but still think we're not far behind

My bad on not detailing the stats:

VORP - The marginal value a player brings over a replacement level player on both sides of the ball. Offensive VORP + Defensive VORP. (I've never had it perfectly clarified but I think of the replacement player like the 7th guy on a 14 man roster. So how many points that player would add on average to a game over their "replacement player")

BPM relies on a player's box score information and the team's overall performance to estimate a player's performance relative to league average. BPM is a per-100-possession stat, the same scale as Adjusted Plus/Minus: 0.0 is league average, +5 means the player is 5 points better than an average player over 100 possessions (which is about All-NBA level), -2 is replacement level, and -5 is really bad.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html

 

[Stifle Tower]

Didn't realize BPM included team performance. So the BPM's for all three will go up when we're >.500 next season.
Rudy's VORP is low because of his poor offense. And I'll bet the defensive VORP doesn't include some of the stats that aren't included in box scores: the shots altered or not taken by his presence in the paint and deflections that aren't counted as blocks. That's the one thing that really bothers me; I don't think Rudy gets credited for as many blocks as he really makes. Every time Whiteside touches the ball above someone's shoulder, he gets credited for a block. Our official scorekeeper seems pretty stingy in that regard.

 

[ShortShorts]

Didn't realize BPM included team performance. So the BPM's for all three will go up when we're >.500 next season.
Rudy's VORP is low because of his poor offense. And I'll bet the defensive VORP doesn't include some of the stats that aren't included in box scores: the shots altered or not taken by his presence in the paint and deflections that aren't counted as blocks. That's the one thing that really bothers me; I don't think Rudy gets credited for as many blocks as he really makes. Every time Whiteside touches the ball above someone's shoulder, he gets credited for a block. Our official scorekeeper seems pretty stingy in that regard.

If I'm not mistaken BPM doesn't "include team performance" but rather adjusts for it. Trying to make it as apples to apples as possible for players on winning vs losing teams.

BTW, at the game on Saturday I was ticked off with Rudy's block count - I had him for 5 by half quite clearly and they only credited him with I think 3 for the whole game.

 

[ONE LOVE]

I have been on this bandwagon all year. I started seeing it right after the Christmas break. We were keeping up with teams that we shouldn't have been. The last 3 years under Corbin, I knew when a blowout would happen. And 9 times out of 10, I wouldn't even watch the games. But when we beat the bulls in Chicago this year. And the way we beat them. I looked at my wife, and I said "Oh ****, ****, bitch and ***! In 3 years time, we could be very very ****ing dangerous."

And the beauty of it. The NBA can't stop it. We are building a defensive mad house. And I looooooove it!

Not to mention also beating GSW, Spurs and POR ... all quality opponents.


Now if we can just limit losses to the likes of the Lakers....

 

[Stifle Tower]

If I'm not mistaken BPM doesn't "include team performance" but rather adjusts for it. Trying to make it as apples to apples as possible for players on winning vs losing teams.

BTW, at the game on Saturday I was ticked off with Rudy's block count - I had him for 5 by half quite clearly and they only credited him with I think 3 for the whole game.

Oh, ok. I misinterpreted your post. Thanks for clarifying.

Just my impression, but it seems like most of the players on the list are high scorers, so it's impressive for Rudy to be way up there. And to a lesser extent, Favors.

 

[ONE LOVE]

So Rudy is top 10 in terms of BPM ... wow.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Wow very well thought out. My worry again is about Exum... Dude needs to hurry up and develop because these guys are ready to be a playoff team. I wonder if adding a really good offensive player who is a bad perimeter defender would hurt us defensively. Having those guys in the middle fixes so much. Guys can gamble more on the perimeter and it doesn't cost us as much.

Overall I am ecstatic with where we are headed. I'd love to add a more dynamic wing, maybe Exum or burks will be that, to go along with this crew. We need to win the freakin lotto and get Russell. Dal needs to start doing his prayer stuff to make it happen.

 

[akirac73]

Based on this list...Rudy is the best Center in the entire NBA. Not bad...

 

[ShortShorts]

Based on this list...Rudy is the best Center in the entire NBA. Not bad...

Stats can only go so far but pretty impressive for sure.

By the way the quick follow up to this to show what a bump in guard performance would do, meaning some combination of Dante uses those freak genes to become Batman, Burke steps up his Assist% and D, Burks returns healthier then ever, we make a move with Kanter money in FA this summer, or the ping pong balls fall our way in May. And by the way ALL of these are reasonably likely.

Our guard performance is horrible. As in all WELL below even low end starter level ball. List below includes everyone with 500 min or more this year - anyone who has seen decent usage essentially. Pretty much nobody, even in the East, whose playoff bound would start any of the guys that have gotten minutes.

 

[mhindy]

I think a guy who is slightly older but who brings his value in shooting (read: Wes Matthews) could actually be a giant help - by the end of his deal he will be moving into a lesser role, but he will help us get to a competitive level a hell of a lot faster. Without a signing of a guy who can really play NOW, we are going to be close but frustratingly inconsistent the next couple of years while we wait on Exum, Burke, Burks, etc.

Edit: Kanter's stats are exactly what I would expect. Good offensive player, but SO BAD defensively that his overall metrics are dog****.

 

[gregbroncs]

Stats can only go so far but pretty impressive for sure.

By the way the quick follow up to this to show what a bump in guard performance would do, meaning some combination of Dante uses those freak genes to become Batman, Burke steps up his Assist% and D, Burks returns healthier then ever, we make a move with Kanter money in FA this summer, or the ping pong balls fall our way in May. And by the way ALL of these are reasonably likely.

Our guard performance is horrible. As in all WELL below even low end starter level ball. List below includes everyone with 500 min or more this year - anyone who has seen decent usage essentially. Pretty much nobody, even in the East, whose playoff bound would start any of the guys that have gotten minutes.

Interesting that our best Guard with your stat is the much maligned Jingles.