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RAPM-based Western Conference projections

idiot

Well-Known Member
Just messing around again with a set of stats (this time from nbashotcharts.com). I found the results interesting (and supportive of the idea that the Jazz identity may still be heavily defense-oriented).

This is a projection for 2019-20’s teams utilizing 2018-19’s regularized-adjusted plus minus data (per 100 possessions). This stat has some problems, as you’ll probably recognize, but like many other stats, the more data that goes into it, the better it is likely to function. It’s generally recognized as one of the better stats within the general plus-minus category. Take it for what it’s worth, which is likely only just a small amount. Plus minus stats can vary considerably year to year and depend more strongly than most stats on team role/situation.

Feel free to ask why the results differ from what you might have expected (or go into the site yourself to figure it out), or which players I included in the calculations.


Points above average for Top 10 players (per 100 possessions; based on ratio of 30 minutes/game for the 5 players I project to play the most minutes, and 18 minutes/game for the next 5)
8.9 Jazz
7.1 Nuggets
6.8 Rockets
6.3 Clippers
4.5 Pelicans
4.5 Spurs
4.4 Lakers
4.1 Warriors
2.5 Mavs
2.5 Blazers
2.4 Wolves
2.1 Thunder
0.9 Kings

Points above average for top 5 players (still based on 100 possessions)
12.0 Jazz
11.5 Clippers
11.1 Warriors
10.9 Lakers
9.3 Rockets
9.0 Nuggets
8.3 Spurs
7.4 Pelicans
7.3 Thunder
5.0 Blazers
4.8 Wolves
2.9 Mavs
2.3 Kings

Some notes: no rookies (ie Zion) or players who missed all of last year (Porzingis, Roberson, D. Murray) included. Top 5 players who are expected to miss significant portions of the coming season (Klay, Nurkic) were regarded as reserves in the calculations. I didn’t bother to calculate Memphis or Phoenix since both figure to be completely out of the playoff picture.
 
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Offensive RAPM (top 10 players) /100 possessions
6.1 Rockets
5.5 Clippers
4.3 Nuggets
4.0 Lakers
3.4 Spurs
2.7 Jazz
2.2 Mavs
2.0 Warriors
1.7 Wolves
1.3 Kings
0.8 Blazers
0.7 Thunder
0.6 Pelicans

Offensive RAPM (top 5 players) /100 possessions
10.3 Clippers
8.6 Lakers
8.2 Rockets
6.0 Warriors
5.6 Spurs
5.2 Nuggets
4.4 Thunder
4.1 Mavs
4.0 Jazz
3.4 Blazers
3.0 Wolves
2.1 Kings
1.1 Pelicans
 
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Defensive RAPM (top 10 players) /100 possessions
6.2 Jazz
3.9 Pelicans
2.8 Nuggets
2.2 Warriors
1.6 Blazers
1.4 Thunder
1.1 Spurs
0.9 Clippers
0.7 Rockets
0.7 Wolves
0.4 Lakers
0.4 Mavs
-0.4 Kings

Defensive RAPM (top 5 players) /100 possessions
8.0 Jazz
6.2 Pelicans
5.1 Warriors
3.9 Nuggets
2.9 Thunder
2.6 Spurs
2.3 Lakers
1.8 Wolves
1.6 Blazers
1.3 Clippers
1.1 Rockets
0.2 Kings
-1.2 Mavs

(Needless to say, the Jazz and Clippers rankings here were surprising. RAPM greatly underanks Kawhi & P. Beverly compared to their reputations. It also ranks 8 Jazz players, all except Mudiay and Green of the top 10 expected minute getters, among the league’s top 90 players defensively.)
 
Defensive RAPM (top 10 players) /100 possessions
6.2 Jazz
3.9 Pelicans
2.8 Nuggets
2.2 Warriors
1.6 Blazers
1.4 Thunder
1.1 Spurs
0.9 Clippers
0.7 Rockets
0.7 Wolves
0.4 Lakers
0.4 Mavs
-0.4 Kings

Defensive RAPM (top 5 players) /100 possessions
8.0 Jazz
6.2 Pelicans
5.1 Warriors
3.9 Nuggets
2.9 Thunder
2.6 Spurs
2.3 Lakers
1.8 Wolves
1.6 Blazers
1.3 Clippers
1.1 Rockets
0.2 Kings
-1.2 Mavs

(Needless to say, the Jazz and Clippers rankings here were surprising. RAPM greatly underanks Kawhi & P. Beverly compared to their reputations. It also ranks 8 Jazz players, all except Mudiay and Green of the top 10 expected minute getters, among the league’s top 90 players defensively.)

This is definitely interesting in regards to the Clippers. I knew some of the defensive advanced stats don't love Kawhi and Pat Bev as much as league wide reputation and fan reputation does. But I didn't expect they would come out this low on this list. I also find the Pelicans interesting. I like their defensive potential and this seems to back that up.

I love these posts btw, great work.
 
Thanks for the comment, SCS!

Yes, this RAPM seems to be a bit funky. Among the Jazz, it was surprising that it gave Bojan a higher ranking (in comparison to all the league's players) on defense than it did on offense. It's also super high on Ingles especially defensively. Gobert was lower than I expected; defense a bit lower, offense a lot lower. Donovan shows surprisingly well defensively. Jeff Green was very high offensively.
 
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Here's the projections for the top Eastern Conference contenders (compared to Jazz):

Points above average for Top 10 players

9.7 Bucks
8.9 Jazz
6.8 Sixers
5.4 Celtics
4.8 Raptors


Points above average for top 5 players (still based on 100 possessions)
12.5 Bucks
12.0 Jazz
11.9 Raptors
10.0 Sixers
5.3 Celtics

(No surprise, I suppose, since the Bucks ran away with wins and margin last year.)
 
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Derrick Favors is so damn underrated. . .

Actually, this RAPM stat doesn't suggest that Favors is particularly high (just barely above average last year). So while I agree with you that he is seriously underrated, this high RAPM projection doesn't owe much to Favors.
 
I should note that any statistic, whether advanced or simple, has significant problems as a prognostication tool. You can read about some of RAPM's problems here. Nobody has yet come upon the holy grail of predicting player/team performance from year to year, though each statistic is useful to help paint some of the picture.

So these projections that I've been doing are more for fun than serious prediction. (I'm sure you all know that, already.)
 
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