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Tracking the Jazz in the Hollinger Playoff Odds

nightmare3983

nightmare3983

First BF League CHAMP
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I'm curious to see how accurate the Hollinger Playoff Odds will be for Jazz. So I'm going to keep track of how accurately the system predicts the record of the remaining games for the Jazz. There's not really much point to this, but the same could be said of many threads here.

2/5/13: Jazz record is 27-22. The Hollinger Playoff Odds say the Jazz go 14-19 the rest of the way to finish 41-41. (Actual: 5-8)
2/6/13: Jazz record at 27-22, projected to go 15-18 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 5-9)
2/7/13: Jazz record is 28-22, projected to go 14-18 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 4-9)
2/8/13: Jazz record is 28-22, projected to go 14-18 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 4-9)
2/9/13: Jazz record is 28-23, projected to go 14-17 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 4-8)
2/10/13: Jazz record is 28-24, projected to go 13-17 to finish 41-41. (Actual: 4-7)
2/11/13: Jazz record is 28-24, projected to go 13-17 to finish 41-41. (Actual: 4-7) Odds of making playoffs: 43.2% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/12/13: Jazz record is 28-24, projected to go 13-17 to finish 41-41. (Actual: 4-7) Odds of making playoffs: 44.3% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/13/13: Jazz record is 29-24, projected to go 13-16 to finish 42-40. (Actual: 3-7) Odds of making playoffs: 55.5% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/14/13: Jazz record is 30-24, projected to go 13-15 to finish 43-39. (Actual: 2-7) Odds of making playoffs: 63.4% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/15/13: Jazz Record and Projection remain unchanged. Odds of making playoffs: 65.5% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/19/13: Jazz Record and Projection remain unchanged. Odds of making playoffs: 66.8% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/20/13: Jazz record is 31-24, projected to go 12-15 to finish 43-39. (Actual: 1-7) Odds of making playoffs: 75.2% Projected WC seed: 8th
2/21/13: Jazz record and projection remain unchanged. Odds of making playoffs: 72.5% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/24/13: Jazz are 31-25 and projected to go 12-14 to finish at 43-39 (Actual: 1-6). Odds of making playoffs: 68% Projected WC Seed: 8th
2/25/13 Everything is unchanged except the odds of the Jazz making the playoffs, now at 65.7%
2/26/13: Jazz are 31-26 and projected to go 12-13to finish 43-39. (Actual: 1-5) Odds of making playoffs: 63.8% Prjoected WC Seed: 8th
2/27/13: Only change is in Jazz playoff odds, now at 65.2%.
2/28/13: Jazz are 31-27 and projected to go 11-13 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 1-4) Odds of making playoffs: 61.4% Projected WC Seed: 8th
3/4/13: Jazz are 32-27 and projected to go 10-13 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 0-4) Odds of making playoffs: 64.1% Projected WC Seed: 8th
3/5/13: Jazz are 32-28 and projected to go 10-12 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 0-3) Odds of making playoffs: 58.6%
3/6/13: Record and projection unchanged, playoff odds up to 61.3%
3/9/13: Jazz are 32-30 and projected to go 10-10 to finish at 42-40. (Actual: 0-1) Odds of making playoffs: 52.2%
3/11/13: Jazz are 32-31 and projected to go 9-10 to finish at 41-41. (Actual:) Odds of making playoffs: 43.9% Projected WC Seed: 9th

https://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
 
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nightmare3983 said:
I'm curious to see how accurate the Hollinger Playoff Odds will be for Jazz. So I'm going to keep track of how accurately the system predicts the record of the remaining games for the Jazz. There's not really much point to this, but the same could be said of many threads here.

2/5/13: Jazz record is 27-22. The Hollinger Playoff Odds say the Jazz go 14-19 the rest of the way to finish 41-41.
Click to expand...

Wow it predicts we will play under 500 ball!?!
 
I think the Jazz will get at least 45 wins, especially if Mo and Hayward come back strong.

The Jazz still suck on the road and can't seem to beat good teams though. It doesn't bode well for the playoffs. At all.

Our best wins of the year so far would be the Spurs, Miami and Indiana at home, and maybe the Lakers and Nets on the road. We're still a mediocre team overall.
 
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Does it really take a sophisticated mathematician to figure out that the Jazz are a .500 team? I could've told you that without looking at any stats...
 
The playoff odds are based off the daily Power Rankings that was / is John Hollinger's creation, if I remember correctly. https://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings The Jazz had been hovering in the 11-16 range, and then plummeted to around 24 after the Houston loss. Our playoffs odds were basically cut in half from 80% to 40% after that loss, as the power rankings formula contains a factor for victory margin.. Houston's ranking shot up again yesterday after their beatdown of Golden State..
 
acj1971 said:
The playoff odds are based off the daily Power Rankings that was / is John Hollinger's creation, if I remember correctly. https://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings The Jazz had been hovering in the 11-16 range, and then plummeted to around 24 after the Houston loss. Our playoffs odds were basically cut in half from 80% to 40% after that loss, as the power rankings formula contains a factor for victory margin.. Houston's ranking shot up again yesterday after their beatdown of Golden State..
Click to expand...

The formula puts a large emphasis on the last ten games. When the houston blowout isn't in the focused period our odds will jump back up.
 
I for one will be very interested to see how Hollinger does applying his methods/formulas in the Grizzlies' front office. While I believe that advanced metrics have a lot of value and are superior on average to eyeball tests or gut feelings, Hollinger struck me as a bit too smug about the all encompassing power of his PER and his other stats. (Anyone know, has PER achieved a kind of elevated status, similar to, say, Wins Above Replacement, in that it is a metric widely used by other sabremetricians, or is it the hobby horse of a particular group of people but not otherwise widely used, or something in between?) You know the old saying, "when the only tool you have is a hammer, then everything starts looking like a nail."

I'm not rooting for or against Hollinger, but I am quite interested in how this pans out.
 
PER is nothing more than a good example of confirmation bias. Its actual superiority over a simple +/- number or European style production index has not been established.
 
nightmare3983 said:
2/5/13: Jazz record is 27-22. The Hollinger Playoff Odds say the Jazz go 14-19 the rest of the way to finish 41-41.
Click to expand...

14333415-0.jpg



"What you little pencil neck? I'll crush your predictions"
 
nightmare3983 said:
I'm curious to see how accurate the Hollinger Playoff Odds will be for Jazz. So I'm going to keep track of how accurately the system predicts the record of the remaining games for the Jazz. There's not really much point to this, but the same could be said of many threads here.

2/5/13: Jazz record is 27-22. The Hollinger Playoff Odds say the Jazz go 14-19 the rest of the way to finish 41-41.


https://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
Click to expand...

If you really want to track it you should put the record every day in an excel sheet, and graph it at the end of the season.
 
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