Would you rather....
- Thread starter HermanG
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Chargers Jazz Angels
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interesting debate. I could see I could see either happening to be honest.
I don't know if Lauri has a next level to get to but if he became top 10 in the NBA that would make it very hard not to be a playoff team. I'm not sure what would need to be improved for that to happen.
Clarkson I hope is gone soon. For him, it would not be getting to the next level but just getting back to his best form. Then let's move him. I can't see how he would improve the team too much unless he suddenly became the PG we needed.
John Collins - doesn't really have a next level. I guess becoming a shutdown defender in addition to a 3-point shooter. That could create some wins but seriously not happening.
Walker Kessler - has the potential to be somewhat of a game-changer. He would need to defend better in space and get his head on straight. Become a threat from the outside and get a low post-game going. All while still defending the rim at a high rate. Tjis would cause more wins and make the Jazz way more competitive.
Colin Sexton - is one of my favorite Jazz players. If he became a more cerebral defender and put his effort into playing smarter. Becoming the Jazz PG of the future. yes this would cause more wins.
kEyonte George - is the one that I would peg the most as having the biggest impact next season but A LOT would need to change with his game and I can see incremental changes but nothing to get too many more wins.
Taylor Hendricks - If he plays with passion every game could be the real deal but I am not holding my breath. To become a true 3 and D player could add a few more wins.
Filipowski, Williams and Collier - I just need to see more. Who knows what they will bring. I like Williams but he needs A LOT more strength.
as for my answer I would rather see improvement and see a future then the same old same old.
I don't know if Lauri has a next level to get to but if he became top 10 in the NBA that would make it very hard not to be a playoff team. I'm not sure what would need to be improved for that to happen.
Clarkson I hope is gone soon. For him, it would not be getting to the next level but just getting back to his best form. Then let's move him. I can't see how he would improve the team too much unless he suddenly became the PG we needed.
John Collins - doesn't really have a next level. I guess becoming a shutdown defender in addition to a 3-point shooter. That could create some wins but seriously not happening.
Walker Kessler - has the potential to be somewhat of a game-changer. He would need to defend better in space and get his head on straight. Become a threat from the outside and get a low post-game going. All while still defending the rim at a high rate. Tjis would cause more wins and make the Jazz way more competitive.
Colin Sexton - is one of my favorite Jazz players. If he became a more cerebral defender and put his effort into playing smarter. Becoming the Jazz PG of the future. yes this would cause more wins.
kEyonte George - is the one that I would peg the most as having the biggest impact next season but A LOT would need to change with his game and I can see incremental changes but nothing to get too many more wins.
Taylor Hendricks - If he plays with passion every game could be the real deal but I am not holding my breath. To become a true 3 and D player could add a few more wins.
Filipowski, Williams and Collier - I just need to see more. Who knows what they will bring. I like Williams but he needs A LOT more strength.
as for my answer I would rather see improvement and see a future then the same old same old.
Maybe by the tracking data for just points per possession, but to my eye (from my memory, so fwiw), he didnt really make passes to Walker like the way he did Collins. Him and Collins had some chemistry. It felt like no one on the team had any PNR chemistry with Walker.
HermanG
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Are you saying that none of our 6 combined picks from 2023 and 2024 can become great players?
Seeing leap(s) from (some of) them would indicate that we got something there. Seeing them struggle would indicate the opposite, and would require us to hit on "the next guy".
So its really a question of "higher draft pedigree vs proven NBA skills". We can get both in reality, but if this hypothetical trade-off would exist which one would you pick?
History has proven that stars can come from all over the draft. I would guess 6 picks in 9-32 range probably has a higher % to produce one than a single top 3 pick.
no. im not saying that. i personally dont see greatness rigjt now in any of them. key has been very good at times, but he is not a natural passer, hes streaky as bacon and he has no defense at all. moreover, it is just incredibly hard to convince free agents to come to utah. so our best option right now is the 2025 draft.
didn't even have to look at who was hidden from my view to know who you were talking to.
Handlogten's Heros
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Tough question. I'm not sure. In this scenario do we get the 8-10th pick or just the 8-10th odds and still a minor chance at jumping to top 4? Is this pre-lotto or post-lotto?
OP says odds. For anyone wondering:
Top 3 Lotto position:
Top 1: 14%
Top 4: 48-52%
8-10 odds
Top 1: 3-6%
Top 4: 14-26%
The main difference is that Sexton shoots and scores more (and more efficiently) with Kessler, but he gets more assists with Collins. Just the nature of Collins taking up more usage than Kessler. I think it's a good sign that Sexton can scale up the playmaking or scoring regardless of who he's playing with and adjust. Both combos lead to good overall efficiency regardless of how the usage split is between the combos. Honestly, everything just points to Sexton being extremely good....it's just a matter of doing it over a more extended period of time to make people believers.
Numbers aside.....Hardy doesn't run a ton of PnR. He usually sticks that big on the baseline and hovers them between the corner and dunker spot and Collins is a lot better at that. I feel like using Collins as a roll man is kind of an untapped area of potential as he is still one of the best in the league at it. I would also be interested to see Sexton in more of a two man game with Lauri at the top. I think Sexton has been in a great position to succeed teammate wise, but Hardy could probably cater to him even more.
Moving back to the theme of thread, I think if we did surprise it's likely a result of Sexton leveling up and becoming that all star level player. I don't think we are worse off because we discovered Lauri and he made it difficult to tank. Likewise, if we discover that Sexton is actually an all star level player, I don't think we are worse off.
seattlejazzfan
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i would hate for all of the six to look like garbage. especially key, williams and collier. so i voted 8-10 for purposes of the poll.
however reality is that the rookies and 2nd year guys leveling up and still getting a top 3 spot are not mutually exclusive. not an either/or situation at all. they could all look really good and the jazz still have a bottom 3 record in the league. whether the jazz end up in that 8-10 range (or worse) again depends on how much playing time the veterans get and how healthy they stay.
tl;dr, the jazz need a top 3 pick this year AND they need most of their young guys to show promise/improvement.
however reality is that the rookies and 2nd year guys leveling up and still getting a top 3 spot are not mutually exclusive. not an either/or situation at all. they could all look really good and the jazz still have a bottom 3 record in the league. whether the jazz end up in that 8-10 range (or worse) again depends on how much playing time the veterans get and how healthy they stay.
tl;dr, the jazz need a top 3 pick this year AND they need most of their young guys to show promise/improvement.
Yeah but the poll isn't pick, it's pre lottery position.
You could finish with the 3rd worst record, have all the young guys look mediocre, and still draft 8th.
That's why I voted the 8-10 option. Give me the certainty that something has gone right and hope for lotto luck vs guys looking bad and just having a slightly higher % at lotto luck
HermanG
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I dont see how that is possible barring a major injury to Lauri. At least its much more improbable than OP choices.
Current win total lines predicts us to win 7 more wins than the 3rd worst team, Blazers. Nets and Wiz are even worse.
So if the young guys look better than expected common sense logic should tell you that +6 wins is much much more likely than -7 wins.
Step-Back Lauri
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I can't answer this, bc both leveling up and struggling are such arbitrary concepts. Probably the only reason to risk losing the 1st round pick Is if Lauri takes another major leap and looks like a top ten player. Not impossible but unlikely.
seattlejazzfan
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fair point.
Handlogten's Heros
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Ahhh... saw it in the second post. I think I would take the rookies and young players taking the leap and just hope to get really lucky. There is a chance a guy could still pop even if they sucked this year but if they took big leaps then it might mean their trajectory is high enough to give up the better odds. Gonna have to thread the needle, catch lightening in a bottle, etc to win a title so landing top 4 with long odds and having good young guys is that kind of high ceiling type outcome we need. Striking out on top 4 isn't a death knell either. I think this draft will produce an all-star or two outside the top 5. Maybe fringe all-stars as that bar keeps getting higher.
This is a good point to bring up. Young players are on a different scale and can still "look good" while losing. For example, I think Key's rookie season exceeded all expectations and yet he was one of the most negative players in the league last year. I think I season could be similar to SAS last season, it seems as though our mentality is the same. The Spurs focused on development. Their young guys didn't look horrible, but they still only won 22 games. That's just the nature of playing for development. There's going to be guys playing in outsized roles, lineups that don't necessarily make sense in the short term, and guys consistently getting minutes despite poor play. The Jazz are different because they have proven vets, but like you said, it's really a matter of how much PT they're getting. Given the fact that we shut them down when the incentives were lower, I feel fairly comfortable in thinking that we will once again shut them down and more likely than not that will come earlier.
cctrackstar
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it's really early, but cody williams might be an all star that we got for one of the 'worst drafts in a decade'. tanking for picks is dumb, play to win screw the draft. all we need is good talent scouts, which it looks like we might have.
Handlogten's Heros
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I think the messaging this season has been much different. We also didn’t bring back guys like Dunn and have made enough cuts the last couple years that the vet issue isn’t as big of an issue. I think it will be more a question of finishing 6-7ish over bottom 5. 8-10 means Sexton went ham and the young guys are really good… or Lauri/Kessler took some big steps. We are in a pretty good position just hope we can get lotto luck.
SoUjazzfan
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I don't trust the lottery balls to fall our way even if we're bottom of the heap come end of season. Let's see major improvement and our scouting finding (have found) diamonds in the rough. I'm all in on leveling up! Hate seeing one sided losses.
Yeah a year ago at this time, people were thinking playoffs or convey the pick. There’s no talk about that this time around and the roster composition is much different. Definitely a different tone(!). If we do end up 8-10, I really feel it’s the result of something good happening. Sexton becoming an all star, Lauri becoming a top 15 player, Key having a massive leap etc. There’s not a lot of fluff on this roster. There’s a point to everyone being on this roster that even if the goal isn’t winning. Can’t say the same about previous years.
I mentioned this earlier, but pretty much anything towards the winning direction has some sort of ceiling on it because we’ll likely shut it down anyways. If Sexton goes ham and truly established himself, we won’t see him much. I even think that if Key/Kessler/Hendricks pop…they might be included in the rest group. OTOH, if we have a player that is truly performing poorly (a rookie for example), I don’t think we’re going to see them shut out of the rotation. I think Hardy has shown the ability to shuffle around the pieces and land on something that works…but it probably won’t be the goal. He’s still going to maintain some degree of accountability and “no free minutes”….but he’s also probably not going to be working his magic to squeeze out as many wins as possible. It’s not like he has amazing options to turn to anyways.