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Culture of winning or tank?

Win or tank?

  • Total voters
    87
sip said:
The benefits are not minimal. We aren't tanking for just the 1st pick but rather a top 5 pick and maybe we get lucky and get the 1st pick.
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Been there, done that. Got Dante and honestly, **** Dante. I wish we had just traded that pick for anything.
 
David Hume said:
One extreme thought experiment is this: for the next 40 years would you rather have:

(A) the first pick in each draft
(B) a random pick in each draft
(C) the 60th pick in each draft

The answer might be pertinent to the current discussion.
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Would you rather have the first pick in every draft, but you have to draft the consensus #1 prospect as decided by the main draft sites, or a random lottery pick every year but you can choose who you pick.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Would you rather have the first pick in every draft, but you have to draft the consensus #1 prospect as decided by the main draft sites, or a random lottery pick every year but you can choose who you pick.
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Cool thought experiment. If I’m trying to win a title I’d go for the first option. Agonizing over who to pick at, say, 52 doesn’t seem that fun.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Would you rather have the first pick in every draft, but you have to draft the consensus #1 prospect as decided by the main draft sites, or a random lottery pick every year but you can choose who you pick.
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I think I'd take the consensus no. 1 prospect. Although... I'd like to hear some arguments for the other position. I might change my mind. My instinct is that drafting the consensus no. 1 pick would provide better value ...
 
stitches said:
I think I'd take the consensus no. 1 prospect. Although... I'd like to hear some arguments for the other position. I might change my mind. My instinct is that drafting the consensus no. 1 pick would provide better value ...
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Yeah, it's probably easily the 1st just because when the first really hits (like a Wemby) it's a super hit. You wont get the best player 8/10 times probably, but when you do it's going to be huge.
 
David Hume said:
One extreme thought experiment is this: for the next 40 years would you rather have:

(A) the first pick in each draft
(B) a random pick in each draft
(C) the 60th pick in each draft

The answer might be pertinent to the current discussion.
Click to expand...
Such an exercise is hardly in keeping with the empiricist rationale. I'm troubled you would abandon rational discussion and logical reasoning to engage in a performance of pure speculative imagination. The very idea, good sir!


That said the rational argument is to play the odds and select the 1st pick in every draft, as a matter of course.
 
LogGrad98 said:
Such an exercise is hardly in keeping with the empiricist rationale. I'm troubled you would abandon rational discussion and logical reasoning to engage in a performance of pure speculative imagination. The very idea!
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I fell victim to ale, which, alas, clouds one’s judgment.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Yeah, it's probably easily the 1st just because when the first really hits (like a Wemby) it's a super hit. You wont get the best player 8/10 times probably, but when you do it's going to be huge.
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Not just that... people in general overvalue their ability to scout players better than anyone else really. I think the wisdom of crowds method for picking the best prospect would be better than picking at random lottery spot(lets say on average picking at 7).
 
stitches said:
I think I'd take the consensus no. 1 prospect. Although... I'd like to hear some arguments for the other position. I might change my mind. My instinct is that drafting the consensus no. 1 pick would provide better value ...
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Number one picks the last 20 years.

2004 Dwight Howard
2005 Andrew Bogut
2006 Andrea Bargnani
2007 Greg Oden
2008 Derrick Rose
2009 Blake Griffin
2010 John Wall
2011 Kyrie Irving
2012 Anthony Davis
2013 Anthony Bennett
2014 Andrew Wiggins
2015 Karl-Anthony Towns
2016 Ben Simmons
2017 Markelle Fultz
2018 Deandre Ayton
2019 Zion Williamson
2020 Anthony Edwards
2021 Cade Cunningham
2022 Paolo Banchero
2023 Victor Wembanyama

Not all were consensus, but I'm not even sure how to define that.

If I'm being generous, there's about as many studs as busts here.
 
JimLes said:
Number one picks the last 20 years.

2004 Dwight Howard
2005 Andrew Bogut
2006 Andrea Bargnani
2007 Greg Oden
2008 Derrick Rose
2009 Blake Griffin
2010 John Wall
2011 Kyrie Irving
2012 Anthony Davis
2013 Anthony Bennett
2014 Andrew Wiggins
2015 Karl-Anthony Towns
2016 Ben Simmons
2017 Markelle Fultz
2018 Deandre Ayton
2019 Zion Williamson
2020 Anthony Edwards
2021 Cade Cunningham
2022 Paolo Banchero
2023 Victor Wembanyama

Not all were consensus, but I'm not even sure how to define that.

If I'm being generous, there's about as many studs as busts here.
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Still better than what any evaluator would get at random positions in the lottery for those drafts.
 
stitches said:
Still better than what any evaluator would get at random positions in the lottery for those drafts.
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Well, here's a little chart I just whipped up.

1715721914543.png

Top 10 picks over a period of a decade and their BPM. I chose to start in 2020 because it's unfair to take players with fewer than 4 seasons under their belt and compare them to seasoned vets. I chose BPM because I like the stat and because it's not cumulative, so again, it doesn't reward people who've played more games.

Remember that BPM is a stat that tells you how many points a player contributes compared to a league average player on a league average team. BPM of 0 would make you a very average player in the league. It's not a high bar at all. I've highlighted all the players who do have a positive BPM and then I've singled out ones with one higher than 3. The average for an All-Star in the season they were selected to the game has been just over 5 the past half a decade so it seemed like a somewhat relevant number. Those would be our studs, the sort of players you're hoping to draft with a top 10(or as this chart would indicate, probably top 5, pick).

Now, keep in mind that averages aren't everything. Both Zion and Simmons are coloured red on this chart and Simmons is definitely a bust and not even close to a stud. Both Zion and Embiid are also getting close to a point where you have to say that while they're amazing when they're on the floor, they just can't seem to be on the floor when it matters. Still, it helps to pick early, as you've mentioned, but it's far from a sure thing. If anything, this chart would suggest that picking 3rd might give you a better chance than picking 1st and it definitely gives you a better one than picking second.

As far as the rest of the draft goes, here are the +3 BPM studs picked outside of top 10 in these years.

2020: Haliburton
2019: none
2018: SGA
2017: Mitchell
2016: Sabonis
2015: none
2014: Jokić
2013: Giannis, Gobert
2012: none
2011: Leonard, Butler

9 studs 11-60 versus 9 studs(I can't take Simmons seriously here) picked 1-10.

Yes, it helps to pick top 5, but the difference is not as huge as it might seem. NBA teams have objectively gotten worse at drafting and there are more busts now than ever, especially at the top. Do you wanna pick top 5 instead of not picking top 5? Of course, of course. It's just that the cost of it may be greater than it seems.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Yeah I think there is a sweet spot you want to land in IF you are keeping Lauri... coming in around 5-6 is a balance between odds and not being complete ***. I just think you have to move one or both of Walker/Sexton if you want to keep Lauri and keep your pick in that range. It just feels like wasting another year of Lauri's prime. Make incremental improvements and that pick is going to OKC next year... the BIG moves all seem so meh (Ingram, Young, etc. ain't doing it for me). I would love some instant gratification with a playoff team but there is a cost associated with it... just like there is a cost associated with getting John Collins for "free".

I would sit down with Lauri and lay it out. Let him know its going to be him and the young fellas and if they aren't a for sure play-in team that we will manage the pick situation. I would make him whole by giving him even more that we have to in the renegotiation this year (I would also see if we could make it a flat max and limit the raises a bit). I think he likes being the man here and would sign off on it. I would then move win-now pieces (Sexton, Kessler, JCx2, maybe Dunn in a sign and trade). If Key, Taylor, Brice, Lofton, picks end up being awesome with Lauri and taking you to the play in... well then you likely have something really cooking long term.

If he is out on that I would quietly shop around.
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He should definitely be out on that plan.

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Handlogten's Heros said:
And I would point to OKC and what they did with Shai. It can be a quick turnaround if you get some luck and nail an extra pick. If you remember folks were talking about SGA potentially getting impatient (they also shut him down multiple times) before they ended up hitting big with Holmgren and Williams in one draft.
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I think it's a little different than the sga scenario due to age and that Lauri is an all-star player already while we are planning to gut the team and suck where sga was just an up and comer

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David Hume said:
Last 25 MVPs drafted into the NBA:



Player. Drafted

  1. Nikola Jokic 41
  2. Joel Embiid. 3
  3. Giannis Antetokounmpo. 15
  4. James Harden. 3
  5. Russell Westbrook 4
  6. Steph Curry. 7
  7. Kevin Durant. 2
  8. LeBron James. 1
  9. Derrick Rose. 1
  10. Kobe Bryant. 13
  11. Dirk Nowitzki. 9
  12. Steve Nash. 15
  13. Kevin Garnett. 5
  14. Tim Duncan. 1
  15. Allen Iverson. 1
  16. Shaquille O’Neil. 1
  17. Karl Malone. 13
  18. Michael Jordan. 3
  19. David Robinson. 1
  20. Hakeem Olajuwon. 1
  21. Charles Barkley. 5
  22. Magic Johnson. 1
  23. Larry Bird. 6
  24. Moses Malone came from ABA
  25. Julius Erving 12
  26. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. 1




Number of MVPs drafted by pick

1st pick: 9

2nd pick: 1

3rd pick: 3

4th pick: 1

5th pick: 2

6th pick: 1

7th pick: 1

8th pick: 0

9th pick: 1

10th pick: 0

11th pick: 0

12th pick: 1

13th pick: 2

14th pick: 0

15th pick: 2

41st pick: 1

ABA: 1

Picks 16-40: 0

Picks 42-60: 0

All other: 0



1st picks look pretty good to me.
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Good post

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David Hume said:
One extreme thought experiment is this: for the next 40 years would you rather have:

(A) the first pick in each draft
(B) a random pick in each draft
(C) the 60th pick in each draft

The answer might be pertinent to the current discussion.
Click to expand...

Do I get to have a great team that is winning lots of games each year for these 3 scenarios? If so then I choose (A)

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JimLes said:
Been there, done that. Got Dante and honestly, **** Dante. I wish we had just traded that pick for anything.
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Dante. Kanter. Favors. All top 3 picks for us.
Deron was awesome but we got him and did well In free agency/trades and built an awesome team and still didn't really ever contend for a championship.

Most likely nothing we do will get us a championship.

Might as well win as often as possible.

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Here's some more crazy trivia.

Last time a team drafted a player at #1 who became an MVP was 2008. 16 years ago and even then, it was actually a disastrous pick for that team.

Last time we can say that a team drafted a absolute all-time great who could lead teams to championships at #1 was in 2003, before Wemby was born.

Last time a team drafted a player at #1 who would lead them to a championship was 1998. Last time before that was 1984.

Again, I'm not saying you're not likely to get a good or even great player with a number one pick. You're not getting a ATG who will lead your franchise to glory, though.
 
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