Make good trades, picks, and signings and continue building the roster through incremental moves
Culture of winning or tank?
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So get incrementally better and convey our pick to OKC next year in a strong draft? Great plan.
And... much more importantly - how long is he going to stay? Or is it going to be a Mitchell/CLE situation where in 2 years you either lose him or have to trade him and start all over again...
SoberasHotRod
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FWIW, I see the 2025 draft as the all star draft, but not the MVP draft. I think the top 10-15 will be very deep with all star level guys, but I'm not sure if there is an MVP level guy. The 2026 draft is the MVP level guys, I'm not sure how deep it is, but Dybantsa and Boozer would go 1 and 2 in 2025 if they were in that class.
Now, I definitely could be wrong, I'm not an expert, but this is how I see and understand it today. Theoretically this gives us another year of trying to be good and then blowing it up at the deadline to secure an 8-10 pick, then completely blowing it up for 2026. We would definitely be playing with fire, so not sure I'm on board, but just some thoughts.
Now, I definitely could be wrong, I'm not an expert, but this is how I see and understand it today. Theoretically this gives us another year of trying to be good and then blowing it up at the deadline to secure an 8-10 pick, then completely blowing it up for 2026. We would definitely be playing with fire, so not sure I'm on board, but just some thoughts.
Handlogten's Heros
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I see it as some all nba talent and some all stars. Maybe not top 5 types but guys in the Tatum tier potentially.
SoberasHotRod
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Could be. Obviously you want the higher pick, but if the front office feels the talent level is pretty flat 1-10 and flattened odds give us a decent chance at a top 4 pick, then I could see the front office feeling like that strategy makes sense.
Ainge mentioned several times his plan to draft Kevin Durant and then losing the lottery. I wonder if he just doesn't want to hope for lottery luck as a plan for the future.
Handlogten's Heros
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Yeah I think there is a sweet spot you want to land in IF you are keeping Lauri... coming in around 5-6 is a balance between odds and not being complete ***. I just think you have to move one or both of Walker/Sexton if you want to keep Lauri and keep your pick in that range. It just feels like wasting another year of Lauri's prime. Make incremental improvements and that pick is going to OKC next year... the BIG moves all seem so meh (Ingram, Young, etc. ain't doing it for me). I would love some instant gratification with a playoff team but there is a cost associated with it... just like there is a cost associated with getting John Collins for "free".
I would sit down with Lauri and lay it out. Let him know its going to be him and the young fellas and if they aren't a for sure play-in team that we will manage the pick situation. I would make him whole by giving him even more that we have to in the renegotiation this year (I would also see if we could make it a flat max and limit the raises a bit). I think he likes being the man here and would sign off on it. I would then move win-now pieces (Sexton, Kessler, JCx2, maybe Dunn in a sign and trade). If Key, Taylor, Brice, Lofton, picks end up being awesome with Lauri and taking you to the play in... well then you likely have something really cooking long term.
If he is out on that I would quietly shop around.
Handlogten's Heros
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I think Ingram is by far the most available and likely "star". He is not top 15 by any means. He is a FA after this season but you could max him. What if he says no to Utah... we calling his bluff? We really want him on a max? What does Lauri/Ingram/Sexton get us in the West? What was the acquisition cost for this gamble?
Get into all those questions and you start to realize how far uphill we have to go.
Handlogten's Heros
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And I would point to OKC and what they did with Shai. It can be a quick turnaround if you get some luck and nail an extra pick. If you remember folks were talking about SGA potentially getting impatient (they also shut him down multiple times) before they ended up hitting big with Holmgren and Williams in one draft.
David Hume
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Last 25 MVPs drafted into the NBA:
Player. Drafted
- Nikola Jokic 41
- Joel Embiid. 3
- Giannis Antetokounmpo. 15
- James Harden. 3
- Russell Westbrook 4
- Steph Curry. 7
- Kevin Durant. 2
- LeBron James. 1
- Derrick Rose. 1
- Kobe Bryant. 13
- Dirk Nowitzki. 9
- Steve Nash. 15
- Kevin Garnett. 5
- Tim Duncan. 1
- Allen Iverson. 1
- Shaquille O’Neil. 1
- Karl Malone. 13
- Michael Jordan. 3
- David Robinson. 1
- Hakeem Olajuwon. 1
- Charles Barkley. 5
- Magic Johnson. 1
- Larry Bird. 6
- Moses Malone came from ABA
- Julius Erving 12
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. 1
Number of MVPs drafted by pick
1st pick: 9
2nd pick: 1
3rd pick: 3
4th pick: 1
5th pick: 2
6th pick: 1
7th pick: 1
8th pick: 0
9th pick: 1
10th pick: 0
11th pick: 0
12th pick: 1
13th pick: 2
14th pick: 0
15th pick: 2
41st pick: 1
ABA: 1
Picks 16-40: 0
Picks 42-60: 0
All other: 0
1st picks look pretty good to me.
Yup... you don't need Ingram... you need the equivalent of a Garnett(MVP level talent) for that to work... But Ainge has talked about how trading for Ray Allen was the conduit to getting Garnett... so... lets say we make an Ingram type trade(i.e. the Ray Allen of our build... not perfect comp but whatever )... now who is the next step... you need the big fish after that if you really want to compete... is Giannis going to become available any time soon? Luka IMO is pipe dream... but yeah... we have to be talking about THIS kind of trade...
What about Ja? First ... do we think he has THAT type of talent? And second - is he redeemable? And third - is he gettable?
JimLes
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Do you figure a lack of #1 picks winning in the past decade(or in the foreseeable future) is an outlier or a reflection that the draft and the NBA are fundamentally different now than they were 40 years ago?
JimLes
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There's a difference between where MVP level players are drafted and overall draft, specifically because it is a much smaller sample. It doesn't necessarily average itself out as a larger sample would. It's much more of a crapshoot, as you're refusing to acknowledge. Yes, Nikola and Brunson our outliers, but outliers mean more when we're talking about a group of 5 players every year who are reasonably in conversation for MVP.
All I'm trying to point out is that the draft positions of those players in the past decade(which is a lot more relevant than anything in the 90s or 00s) is all over the place and that the means by which their teams obtained those players are all over the place. Not that it doesn't matter where you draft.
The difference between drafting 10th and 5th while searching for a future MVP candidate is simply not statistically significant enough for me to be willing to sit through a third consecutive season of intentional losing. I don't think I'm out of my mind here.
As I said... we just have to agree to disagree on the best way to get an MVP level talent (this is specifically for a team like us... if we were the Lakers/Knicks/etc., I'd have different thoughts).
What I'd like to comment on is that last part... we can agree on that - what we are doing is horrible... and IMO the intentional losing is not the worst part. It's the half assed approach and the misevaluation of your own team. Because this is precisely what's leading to the full on tanks half-way through the season - we misevaluate what we have, we think we can go for it... only to realize we don't and then turn to tanking. Only... it's too late to reap the benefits of a horrible losing season so we are left without anything - neither a high end pick, nor a competitive team. I know I've been advocating for tanking in this thread... but what I want more than anything is clear direction and plan rather than floating around. So if the FO thinks we can be competitive and they can make moves to make us competitive - good, make those moves. Just... don't half *** it. Don't draft a player in the top 10 and then sign/trade for a mediocre starter just so you don't have to play the rookie and half-way through the season realize you are not going anywhere this way so you trade a few starters in an attempt to tank. Pick a lane, because what we've been doing last couple of years has been horrible.
David Hume
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I don’t really know for sure. It’s a small data set so the noise will be much. One hypothesis is that for a while centers were deemphasized. It’s only now that the “big man is back.” Perhaps it is easier for scouts to identify centers with MVP potential than folks who play other positions.
JimLes
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It's not a binary choice, though. There are other ways. The way we've used to build every Jazz team worth anything the past 40 years, for example. Work with what you have, identify talent, obtain it by any means necessary. The Jazz have had fewer top 5 picks during their existence than I think any team in the NBA. Hasn't stopped us from building some decent teams over the years.
Gobert and Mitchell for mid and late first round picks, and neither of them were actually drafted by the Jazz. On a complete tangent, can you imagine this Denver team with Mitchell instead of Murray? The man who we can now say was easily the third best player on that team was undrafted. We picked him up as he was about to board a plane to Australia. There were a few top-5 picks on that team but they were all role players and we obtained most of them in trades. The one we drafted ourselves had no bearing on our wins and losses one way or another.
When it briefly looked like we might have a decent team led by a goofy, white kid from Indiana, the kid in question was drafted with a 9th pick we obtained a lifetime ago in a Tom Gugliotta trade.
The late 00s team was a motley crew if you've ever seen one. Our own draftee(though we traded up to secure him), 21st pick in the draft selected behind such luminaries as Frederic Weiss and currently-in-the-news Trajan Langdon, and two small-time free agents. One of whom we should never have been able to sign, but he decided to screw his original team owner. Is it still too soon to crack that Boozer and the Jazz robbed Gund blind?
I see contours of something like this right now, as well. Lauri was an amazing find for someone who was really a throw in as far as that trade was concerned. Sexton is the type of energetic, undersized guard the NBA seems to be full of, but he's shown signs of being able to make the leap to the next level of Brunson/Mitchell kind of play. I still think Kessler will develop into an All-Defensive kind of center. All 3 rookies look like they can hang in the NBA, at least. George looks like he will easily outperform his draft position. We've got the second biggest pick haul in the league over the next 5-6 years. There is zero need to tank right now, when even if you finish with the worst record(and boy, look around...it's not easy), you only get a 14% of getting the first pick. The benefits are minimal.
The benefits are not minimal. We aren't tanking for just the 1st pick but rather a top 5 pick and maybe we get lucky and get the 1st pick. Some of you want to build a decent team and are happy with that but I'm not a fan of that route. I want to build something great and sustainable long term and I think the best way to achieve that is to go with a full youth movement over the next 2 years and hopefully we can snag one of those future superstars but at worst I think we can put together one hell of a good young core that is very well rounded. If we try to focus on the win now route I think we just get stuck in no mans land again with almost no shot at competing with the thunder, spurs, griz and rockets going forward.
David Hume
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One extreme thought experiment is this: for the next 40 years would you rather have:
(A) the first pick in each draft
(B) a random pick in each draft
(C) the 60th pick in each draft
The answer might be pertinent to the current discussion.
(A) the first pick in each draft
(B) a random pick in each draft
(C) the 60th pick in each draft
The answer might be pertinent to the current discussion.
JimLes
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Which is exactly what I detest about tanking. Small samples suck because outliers mean more. I'd be willing to bet my house that Walker Kessler will hit at least 50 of his next 100 free throws, but I would obviously not be willing to risk my house that he will hit one out of his next two. The odds are identical, but my risk is so much higher in the second scenario on account of a small sample.
We all know, based on the last two seasons, what it would take for us to properly tank. Getting rid of Lauri and Collin, and keeping Jordan and playing him lots of minutes. It's a high price to pay for a single draft pick that may end up anywhere in the top 10.