Lottery-ball z

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Well if we won more games maybe we win the lottery like the two teams above us, who won more games.

Ya sure, if I had been able to look into the future I would’ve rooted for two more wins.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Knowing the Jazz, they'll convey next year and give OKC another cornerstone player and all it cost us was them taking Favors off our hands.

No

 

[KqWIN]

Well it’s more than just Flagg next year. So it’s not like we need just one result… that’s what I’m saying. Lower odds make it possible to avoid being a full joke like Philly was back in the day and still maximize your shot at a top 4 pick… or get close to it. With Lauri you will risk having to do the dance to get to 8/9 or losing the pick. I get that being the worst team isn’t as profitable… but being 3,4,5 worst is a solid proposition still.

I just mentioned Flagg because he considered a sure thing, generational type prospect. There are not 5 guys like that. Flagg is different so we should talk about the likelihood of getting that guy is who is different.

And you still have odds to get those other guys. Like I said, the point is the same. No matter how you slice it the benefit of bottoming out is significantly worse than it was and you have to account for that.

The protected pick dance is such a small consideration when talking about moving a 100% star player like Lauri. Like im not trading Lauri because of the outside chance I might lose a pick between 11-14. By trading Lauri you lose your chance to pair your potential home run….that is the hypothetical consideration that’s going to carry the weight.


I’m only trading Lauri if I actually believe it’s going to increase my chances of having a 2-3+ star team. Given that Lauri is 100% one of those guys and bottoming out is so much worse, it’s a tough decision.

But like I said earlier, going forward and trying to win just isn’t an option right now. It’s tank with Lauri or tank without him.

 

[The Midnight]

On the plus side though this might be the easiest your to trade up in a draft.

Do your thing Ainge.

 

[infection]

Next years draft is about more than Flagg. Get a top 5 pick and you have a pretty good chance at a home run.

Chance at a home run but ending up grounding to third for a 5-4-3 double play to retire the side. Ainge hangs it up, realizing he’d rather be on the golf course.

You know it to be true.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I just mentioned Flagg because he considered a sure thing, generational type prospect. There are not 5 guys like that. Flagg is different so we should talk about the likelihood of getting that guy is who is different.

And you still have odds to get those other guys. Like I said, the point is the same. No matter how you slice it the benefit of bottoming out is significantly worse than it was and you have to account for that.

The protected pick dance is such a small consideration when talking about moving a 100% star player like Lauri. Like im not trading Lauri because of the outside chance I might lose a pick between 11-14. By trading Lauri you lose your chance to pair your potential home run….that is the hypothetical consideration that’s going to carry the weight.


I’m only trading Lauri if I actually believe it’s going to increase my chances of having a 2-3+ star team. Given that Lauri is 100% one of those guys and bottoming out is so much worse, it’s a tough decision.

But like I said earlier, going forward and trying to win just isn’t an option right now. It’s tank with Lauri or tank without him.

The protected pick is huge. That’s our at bat to hit a home run to go with Lauri. I get in 2025 we have two other picks but those are like 60-70% chance to be 17-30 type picks. The 10-14 range has been really fruitful.

Flagg is awesome but some see Ace Bailey as a better prospect. The next 3-4 guys I think are a tier below those two for now but all would be the best pick in this draft. 2026 is another banger.

Keeping Lauri and hoping to pair him with a guy drafted in 2025… let’s say the 2025 dude is a star and takes a year to get there. So Lauri is 29 and making his first playoff run? Just seems like a short window where those two would be “stars”.

Just think our chance to line up two stars in similar windows is to trade one and give yourself a legit shot at a couple top 5 picks. The silver and bronze medals the next couple years are pretty nice.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Chance at a home run but ending up grounding to third for a 5-4-3 double play to retire the side. Ainge hangs it up, realizing he’d rather be on the golf course.

You know it to be true.

Is that bad? You don’t seem like an Ainge fan.

 

[KqWIN]

The protected pick is huge. That’s our at bat to hit a home run to go with Lauri. I get in 2025 we have two other picks but those are like 60-70% chance to be 17-30 type picks. The 10-14 range has been really fruitful.

Flagg is awesome but some see Ace Bailey as a better prospect. The next 3-4 guys I think are a tier below those two for now but all would be the best pick in this draft. 2026 is another banger.

Keeping Lauri and hoping to pair him with a guy drafted in 2025… let’s say the 2025 dude is a star and takes a year to get there. So Lauri is 29 and making his first playoff run? Just seems like a short window where those two would be “stars”.

Just think our chance to line up two stars in similar windows is to trade one and give yourself a legit shot at a couple top 5 picks. The silver and bronze medals the next couple years are pretty nice.

There is a zero chance I’m deciding Lauri’s future on the basis of potentially losing 10-14. Like we just secured it twice in a row with him and now the team is wayyy worse. I’m not thinking about that.

I definitely don’t think Lauri is too old to play with potential home run. But the thing about keeping Lauri is you can always trade him. That’s why I’ve always said that having the star is the power position. You can always trade them. You cannot always trade for one, and there’s definitely no guarantee you draft one.

 

[Nate505]

Ahh, tanking for the 10th pick in an awful draft. Great stuff, can’t wait for next year.

 

[donAZ62]

Here are two players I am very high on that are projected mid first round: (Salaun is raw but he is only 18- and has potential as scorer, passer, defender. Carter has 6' 9" wingspan and is elite defender, rebounder. I would be thrilled if we could some how package our two later picks to move up and somehow get both players...

Tidjane Salaun 2024 Draft Profile | Tankathon

Tidjane Salaun - SF - Cholet Basket (France) - 2024 NBA Draft Profile and Stats

www.tankathon.com

Devin Carter 2024 Draft Profile | Tankathon

Devin Carter - PG - Providence - 2024 NBA Draft Profile and Stats

www.tankathon.com

 

[JazzJunkie]

Well, at least I didn't lose sleep over this. It was a terrible year to be top 4 anyway. Maybe our luck is actually 2025.

I keep trying to tell myself that but at this point I'm convinced Jazz are lottery cursed. Funny thing to is the hockey team Utah just acquired has the same lottery luck. Exact same.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There is a zero chance I’m deciding Lauri’s future on the basis of potentially losing 10-14. Like we just secured it twice in a row with him and now the team is wayyy worse. I’m not thinking about that.

I definitely don’t think Lauri is too old to play with potential home run. But the thing about keeping Lauri is you can always trade him. That’s why I’ve always said that having the star is the power position. You can always trade them. You cannot always trade for one, and there’s definitely no guarantee you draft one.

Oh I’m for sure thinking about losing the pick and having that as a factor in the Lauri trade. What do you mean we just got that pick twice and the team is way worse. Like yeah we got Hendricks as a rookie… that’s not why we were way worse. 10-14 is a really rich draft area. It’d be pretty foolish not to factor that in… it is not the sole factor though.

It’s not that Lauri is too old it’s that even if everything lines up against super low odds you still likely have a tighter window than you’d like. If you land the GUY it still likely works out pretty well as you mentioned you could trade Lauri later maybe… the return likely not as good as you’d want and you’d be looking for win now talent and likely getting offers centered around picks.

We will see what the offseason has but an Ingram Lauri pairing or whatever they try to manufacture has such a low ceiling it makes me feel like the FO has no plan.

 

[sip]

Reports are the rockets are going to be shopping the 3rd pick and are looking to add a vet. I don't know if they would do it but I would love to do Lauri for Jabari Smith and that pick to snag Buzelis.

 

[HermanG]

On one hand I wanna swear the lottery luck... but on the other hand if there ever was a year to get screwed in the lottery.. its probably this one.

Btw those who are pointing to Pistons being very unlucky... I would like to remind that landing #5 twice in a row with the worst record almost equals to throwing heads twice in a row when you hope for tails. Its something you should brace for if the FO decides to truely dive deep into the tank.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Reports are the rockets are going to be shopping the 3rd pick and are looking to add a vet. I don't know if they would do it but I would love to do Lauri for Jabari Smith and that pick to snag Buzelis.

Lauri for Smith, 3, and the Brooklyn 2026 is the trade I suggested and it’s what I’d want as the minimum deal for Lauri. #3 this year is good but it’s not good enough and Smith has been disappointing but fine… I think that pick is moved.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There are also other ways to tank with how competitive the west is. Don’t have to trade Lauri. I do think you should be completely transparent with him though if you choose that route. I also think you should know your trade options with him if you get honest like that. Just in case it changes the renegotiation and extend negotiations.

 

[sip]

Lauri for Smith, 3, and the Brooklyn 2026 is the trade I suggested and it’s what I’d want as the minimum deal for Lauri. #3 this year is good but it’s not good enough and Smith has been disappointing but fine… I think that pick is moved.

I'm all for trying to pry away more picks or swaps but I would do Smith and 3 for Lauri if it came down to it. Keeping Lauri makes no sense to me at this point with the way the west is shaping up right now. If we try to be more competitive I don't see a path to be better than the thunder, griz, rockets and spurs. Yesterday went perfect for the rockets and spurs with the rockets gaining value with their pick and the spurs getting the raptors as well. The spurs are now in the ideal position because they have that high upside youth around Wemby with the 2 top 10 picks so I would expect them to be aggressive in free agency to bring in solid role players.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'm all for trying to pry away more picks or swaps but I would do Smith and 3 for Lauri if it came down to it. Keeping Lauri makes no sense to me at this point with the way the west is shaping up right now. If we try to be more competitive I don't see a path to be better than the thunder, griz, rockets and spurs. Yesterday went perfect for the rockets and spurs with the rockets gaining value with their pick and the spurs getting the raptors as well. The spurs are now in the ideal position because they have that high upside youth around Wemby with the 2 top 10 picks so I would expect them to be aggressive in free agency to bring in solid role players.

That 2026 Brooklyn pick is really valuable imo. I want it almost as much as I want #3. Maybe Brooklyn gets Donny and things change but we don’t have extra picks in 2026 so adding another in that draft works great for me.

 

[HeatCheck]

FWIW Woj seems to think Houston might try to package #3 back to Brooklyn as part of a Mikal Bridges deal. They apparently tried to acquire Bridges at the trade deadline too.

 

[infection]

Just a heads up... that 2027 Lakers' pick is definitely jumping top 4. Hopefully we can grab someone nice at 42.