Do you know what the following names have in common:
Joe Smith
Purvis Ellison
Mark Workman
Andy Tonkovich
Bill McGill
Kwame Brown
Kent Benson
Michael Olowokandi
Greg Oden
LaRue Martin
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, they were all #1 NBA draft picks and they all sucked. If we win the lottery we should trade the pick if we are offered anything better than a bag of chips, because as you can clearly see, sometimes the #1 pick does not work out.
Greg Oden didnt suck because of basketball reasons unlike most of the other guys on that list. I think that statement is very shortsighted...
Different note:
I don't think the draft is a crapshoot, but rather that GMs like to gamble. If you find that special player late in the draft he'll propel the trajectory of your current roster in a different way than an average, but productive player would have.
Some GMs nowadays focus on market inefficiencies and trends.
There have been 3 big trends in the last decade since the league found out that (advanced) numbers dont lie.
1) Team defense. It's not a problem if you can't stay in front of a lot of guys in the league. But you gotta try to force him to a point where he shoots at a lower %. Individual defense is only a problem if you're up against the top10 offensive players in the world. You specifically need guys for these assignments if your best players is worse than the opponents best player.
2) Long range shooting. Nuff said.
3) Multi layered attack schemes. "Old" offenses partially had that as well like the triangle, but in a way too predictable way.
Simple pick and rolls are also too predictable unless your ballhandlers are really dangerous shooters off the dribble(compare: Curry, Steph; Nash, Steve). These pin down schemes for guys who aren't the best ballhandlers that enable them to get to the rim with 1 or 2 dribbles and give them a headstart are super nice.
I don't know who did them first(Probably San Antonio, but Ginobili is an awesome ballhandler without a headstart, so IDK)
I noticed them first with the Raptors when I realized how Casey let his guys run Horns last season and if it didnt generate a good shot or a gap to hit a rolling big to the rim, you could use it to free up DeMar DeRozan, who is not careful with the ball at all, to become an efficient scorer.
Since then Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Arron Afflalo(Orlando), Wes Matthews have found ways to elevate their careers to new highs and added unprecedented value to their respective teams.
