Donald Fires FBI Director who's investigating Russian Election Hacking

[Stoked]

You're done? You're ignoring the data. You didn't even try. I get this type of push back from incoming freshmen who haven't ever had their preconceived notions challenged. But shouldn't we allow data to drive our decision making processes? What does the data show for the upcoming 2018 midterms?

No, I am done because you are literally not worth engaging. You are truly the Dutch of the left. Simply with a better grip on writing in English. Enjoy your last post from me for a while.

 

[♪alt13]

Those 5 seats have gone red for decades.

So if republicans lost 15-20 pts in red districts, what happens in those competitive districts that they only won by 5-10 pts? Basic math here. +5-15= ...

I don't think many of you are being honest here.

I hope that you are right, that being said...
You do have to consider the motivation to show up. Democrats are pissed off, enough to show up to submit a protest vote in a district that they know they will lose. Will that hold up until next year? Likely?

A good chunk of the Republicans probably felt no need to show up as the election was a foregone conclusion and they did not feel a need to register a protest vote. In a more competitive district those voters will have a greater motivation to show up.

Lastly there is so much Republican gerrymandering in this country that Democrats will be facing an uphill battle in the house. I'm hopeful that at the least the demo can win the Senate so that the opposition party can control at least one, but I am not convinced that they will be able to take the HOR.

 

[Deleted member 365]

No, I am done because you are literally not worth engaging. You are truly the Dutch of the left. Simply with a better grip on writing in English. Enjoy your last post from me for a while.

Engaging? You refused to answer my questions. Don't complain to me that I'm not worth engaging when you utterly refused to answer valid questions while you continued to repeat your preconceived views from the start.

Be open for a change man. Let the data guide your opinions.

I use facts. I don't just go on mindless asinine rants, like Dutch. I'm sorry that facts don't fit your bias.

 

[Deleted member 365]

I hope that you are right, that being said...
You do have to consider the motivation to show up. Democrats are pissed off, enough to show up to submit a protest vote in a district that they know they will lose. Will that hold up until next year? Likely?

A good chunk of the Republicans probably felt no need to show up as the election was a foregone conclusion and they did not feel a need to register a protest vote. In a more competitive district those voters will have a greater motivation to show up.

Lastly there is so much Republican gerrymandering in this country that Democrats will be facing an uphill battle in the house. I'm hopeful that at the least the demo can win the Senate so that the opposition party can control at least one, but I am not convinced that they will be able to take the HOR.

Why wouldn't it not hold up next year?

Midterms traditionally swing against the ruling party in the white house. Add in Trump's historic disapproval? And you have the making of a democrat takeover of the House. These special 5 elections weren't even supposed to be competitive. They never figured into the DNC's plans to takeover the House. Literally, they've been in the GOP's backpocket for decades.

I don't think some people here understand basic political statistics here.

In November, Price won in SC by 25 pts. Handel won by 5. The GOP lost 20 pts in only a span of 6 months due to Trump's disapproval. this has remained consistent throughout the special elections.

Let data drive our thought process here. If Trump's unpopularity remains consistent until 2018, using the data to drive our predictions, what do we think will happen in competitive districts?

 

[Stoked]

I hope that you are right, that being said...
You do have to consider the motivation to show up. Democrats are pissed off, enough to show up to submit a protest vote in a district that they know they will lose. Will that hold up until next year? Likely?

A good chunk of the Republicans probably felt no need to show up as the election was a foregone conclusion and they did not feel a need to register a protest vote. In a more competitive district those voters will have a greater motivation to show up.

Lastly there is so much Republican gerrymandering in this country that Democrats will be facing an uphill battle in the house. I'm hopeful that at the least the demo can win the Senate so that the opposition party can control at least one, but I am not convinced that they will be able to take the HOR.

I also hope the Ds take the Senate. It will provide another check to the mess we have in the WH.

With the 2018 elections still 17 months away anything can happen. It is going to be a long ride.

 

[♪alt13]

Why wouldn't it not hold up next year?

Midterms traditionally swing against the ruling party in the white house. Add in Trump's historic disapproval? And you have the making of a democrat takeover of the House. These special 5 elections weren't even supposed to be competitive. They never figured into the DNC's plans to takeover the House. Literally, they've been in the GOP's backpocket for decades.

I don't think some people here understand basic political statistics here.

In November, Price won in SC by 25 pts. Handel won by 5. The GOP lost 20 pts in only a span of 6 months due to Trump's disapproval. this has remained consistent throughout the special elections.

Let data drive our thought process here. If Trump's unpopularity remains consistent until 2018, using the data to drive our predictions, what do we think will happen in competitive districts?

Here is some data

https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/reelect.php

Another way to look at this is the Dems lost open seats. How will they do against an incumbent who is in a district that was drawn for his benefit?

 

[Deleted member 365]

Here is some data

https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/reelect.php

Another way to look at this is the Dems lost open seats. How will they do against an incumbent who is in a district that was drawn for his benefit?

I don't have the time right now to analyze the graph. I'll have to do it later tonight or tomorrow.

I do know that historically midterms hurt those in Congress belonging to the same party as the President. So while incumbents historically have an advantage being reelected, their advantage shrinks during the midterms. One can also theorize that a very unpopular president will only amplify the destain for the ruling party and therefore lead to more republican casualties in the midterms.

One should look at the SC's upcoming ruling on gerrymandering. It potentially could shake things up for the midterms. Gerrymandering, while done by both parties, has disproportionately aided the GOP.

 

[fishonjazz]

only among the rational-thinking from both sides of the political spectrum


unfortunately, I feel there is an element of our population that applauds his audacity and will continue to do so - - for them, it's a sign that he won't easily bend to the will of those who are more thoughtful and circumspect, and they see that as something to cheer about.

Good post

 

[Zombie]

The way I look at it is this, regardless of which party won more special elections this year the GOP was going to maintain the majority in the house. What really matters in terms of gaining control of the house is the 2018 elections, and it strains credulity that the GOP is happy about the massive gains dems made in deep red districts. If those gains are indicative of what's to come, the dems will regain the house.

Now, a lot can change between now and 2018 but unless Trump and the GOP stop pursuing unpopular policies 2018 really isn't looking great for them.

 

[Stoked]

The thing I see is a lot of ifs and speculation. That's the problem, Those ifs could change on a dime.

Now, there is absolutely an opening here for big gains for the Ds. They should push an alternative message, and start campaigning on targeted areas now. But so far they've fallen short.

Let's see what they do now.

 

[DutchJazzer]

I disagree. I think all of these contradictory tweets and interviews only hurts his credibility and strengthens the case for collusion and obstruction of justice.

lols you can disagree all you want! he is staying right their, and if he chooses to run for re-election he will get re-elected!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[DutchJazzer]

I can't find the post but Stoked you seemed to question whether the massive gains democrats have made in these special elections in deep red districts will continue in the midterms. I'm curious, why? Why would trump's unpopularity influence the special elections but not influence the more moderate and balanced districts?

also they broke every spending record consecutively!
all polls had them winning!
so you think trump approval polls are right!?

you and polls live in a fantasy world