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What are the odds of getting THAT GUY via draft?

Tremendous Upside said:
How so?

I mean, we really can't say that. We've never seen this guy face his future peers in a sustained competitive environment. The French league more or less sucks compared to the highest level of the NCAA. And the physicality is like 20% of that of the NBA.

Luka Doncic was a Euroleague MVP at age 19. That's what a sure thing looks like.

Victor may become the most overhyped prospect ever.

People had no trouble saying Zion had tons of body-related red flags when he was at Duke, even though he was an absolute force of nature and proved without a shadow of a doubt he was ready for the NBA. Victor hasn't proved anything and has at least as many red flags, but people keep ignoring them because he's "built different" or something.
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I liked Luka too. Point is you needed a top 3 pick to draft him that year. He should've gone #1 if not for the incompetence of 2 front offices.

Occasionally prospects fall thru the cracks. Giannis who came from the Greek League and Jokic from the Adriatic are examples of that. Looking at the ESPN list of the top 10-15 players this season and most of them were drafted fairly high in the lottery. You need a top 10 player to realistically compete for a championship.

Victor has all the skills out to the 3 point line. Blocks shots. Can initiate and bring the ball up the floor. He has size, length, mobility. I watched those Las Vegas games and defensively Gobert came to mind and a bit of KD on offense. You can point at Zion and Chet as reasons not to draft Victor. I wasn't a huge fan of either.

We can discuss the viability of Victor on a fan forum but every GM in the league would likely run to the podium to draft Victor #1.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The only player on there who was overhyped was Wiggins.

And with Wiggins there is a legitimate argument that his "failures" were more organizational.

Simmons/Zion/Cade have all been really good. Zion has been injured. Simmons seems like he got drafted to the worst possible fit both on the court and off the court. Calling Cade overhyped is weird at this point. Dude is averaging 23-6-5 so far in his 2nd season. Seems pretty good to me.
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I like all those guys fine but in hindsight I'd take Jaylen Brown/Morant/Mobley over Simmons/Zion/Cade in a redraft. The media was overhyping them as saviors for over a year before the draft.
 
In today's game, THAT GUY normally fits one of just a few archetypes:
(A) Big wing with athleticism, ball skills, three-level scoring and some on-ball creation (e.g., Lebron, Kawhi, Tatum, Paul George); Luka is almost in this category, but he's not athletic enough to completely break a defense on his own. He needs a well-spaced floor with multiple kick-out options.
(B) Big, skilled guard with the highest level of functional athleticism (e.g., Kobe, TMac, Penny, DWade). Ja Morant might be close to this category, but I don't think he's quite big enough.
(C) Super long, athletic big forward with some handle, passing and driving skills (e.g., Giannis, KD, AD, Garnett, Amare, Wembanyama probably fits this category as an outlier)

As much as we love creative, athletic guards in the 6' - 6'3" range, they don't normally lead a team all the way. These players are usually the ideal #2 option (e.g., Kyrie, Dame, Rose, AI, Mitchell, etc.) Steph Curry is an exception because he might be the highest gravity shooter ever, combined with really solid passing and playmaking.

In this draft, the guys who fit one of these archetypes and have at least some foundation to be THAT GUY would include: Wembanyama(C), Amen Thompson(B), GG Jackson(C), maybe Ausar Thompson(B), maybe Jarace Walker (fringe A) and maybe Baba Miller (Fringe C).

Other than that, this draft has a bunch of quality players who have some potential to be the #2 guy: Scoot, Nick Smith, Anthony Black, Cam Whitmore, Dariq Whitehead, Keyonte George, Arthur Kaluma, etc.

Ultimately, I think this draft is all about Wembanyama and the Thompson Twins, unless GG Jackson looks like Baby Giannis.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
In today's game, THAT GUY normally fits one of just a few archetypes:
(A) Big wing with athleticism, ball skills, three-level scoring and some on-ball creation (e.g., Lebron, Kawhi, Tatum, Paul George); Luka is almost in this category, but he's not athletic enough to completely break a defense on his own. He needs a well-spaced floor with multiple kick-out options.
(B) Big, skilled guard with the highest level of functional athleticism (e.g., Kobe, TMac, Penny, DWade). Ja Morant might be close to this category, but I don't think he's quite big enough.
(C) Super long, athletic big forward with some handle, passing and driving skills (e.g., Giannis, KD, AD, Garnett, Amare, Wembanyama probably fits this category as an outlier)

As much as we love creative, athletic guards in the 6' - 6'3" range, they don't normally lead a team all the way. These players are usually the ideal #2 option (e.g., Kyrie, Dame, Rose, AI, Mitchell, etc.) Steph Curry is an exception because he might be the highest gravity shooter ever, combined with really solid passing and playmaking.

In this draft, the guys who fit one of these archetypes and have at least some foundation to be THAT GUY would include: Wembanyama(C), Amen Thompson(B), GG Jackson(C), maybe Ausar Thompson(B), maybe Jarace Walker (fringe A) and maybe Baba Miller (Fringe C).

Other than that, this draft has a bunch of quality players who have some potential to be the #2 guy: Scoot, Nick Smith, Anthony Black, Cam Whitmore, Dariq Whitehead, Keyonte George, Arthur Kaluma, etc.
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THAT GUY is not a physical thing. It's more mentality and approach. Hard worker and desire to be the best. A true psycho
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
THAT GUY is not a physical thing. It's more mentality and approach. Hard worker and desire to be the best. A true psycho
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Without the tools though, it normally doesn't happen. There are a few guys who are one-of-a-kind, like say, Jokic or maybe Luka. If I were drafting, unless I thought someone was just over-the-top special, I'd pick from the main archetypes. But my standards for THAT GUY might be pretty high--probably 1st Team All NBA.

In the last draft, the only guy I saw as potentially being THAT GUY was probably Paolo.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Without the tools though, it normally doesn't happen. There are a few guys who are one-of-a-kind, like say, Jokic or maybe Luka. If I were drafting, unless I thought someone was just over-the-top special, I'd pick from the main archetypes. But my standards for THAT GUY might be pretty high--probably 1st Team All NBA.

In the last draft, the only guy I saw as potentially being THAT GUY was probably Paolo.
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Sure, I agree, but I'm just saying you cant look at it through a purely physical lense.

Like what separated Aminu from Paul George? Why did Aminu go higher than both George and Hayward?

Aminu was a high level athlete with a near 7'4 wingspan. Sounds like an ideal prospect.

What separated Kawhi Leonard from Al-Aminu? They have damn near identical physical measurements and put up damn near identical college stats in damn near identical roles. Obviously as fans we dont have access to mentally evaluate and interview players like this, nor do we get to see them in their day to day lives, but that is what interest me in terms of being "that guy".
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Sure, I agree, but I'm just saying you cant look at it through a purely physical lense.

Like what separated Aminu from Paul George? Why did Aminu go higher than both George and Hayward?

Aminu was a high level athlete with a near 7'4 wingspan. Sounds like an ideal prospect.

What separated Kawhi Leonard from Al-Aminu? They have damn near identical physical measurements and put up damn near identical college stats in damn near identical roles. Obviously as fans we dont have access to mentally evaluate and interview players like this, nor do we get to see them in their day to day lives, but that is what interest me in terms of being "that guy".
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Obviously it was because Kawhi has bigger hands.

Tons of misses in the lottery but the hit % on franchise guys is much higher too.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Sure, I agree, but I'm just saying you cant look at it through a purely physical lense.

Like what separated Aminu from Paul George? Why did Aminu go higher than both George and Hayward?

Aminu was a high level athlete with a near 7'4 wingspan. Sounds like an ideal prospect.

What separated Kawhi Leonard from Al-Aminu? They have damn near identical physical measurements and put up damn near identical college stats in damn near identical roles. Obviously as fans we dont have access to mentally evaluate and interview players like this, nor do we get to see them in their day to day lives, but that is what interest me in terms of being "that guy".
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Aminu couldn't shoot and had almost no ball skills. He was probably never going to be an All Star. What I'm saying is that BOTH elite physical tools AND elite skills are needed to be able to create enough impact to be THAT GUY. That said, the mental side of the equation is also truly underrated. I agree with you there. Gobert became what he is because he has real competitive drive and some mental toughness. Hayward had it too before his injuries. Not everyone has the drive to maximize their abilities.
 
HeatCheck said:
Obviously it was because Kawhi has bigger hands.

Tons of misses in the lottery but the hit % on franchise guys is much higher too.
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Kawhi worked hard and really maximized the tools and talent he had. You could probably say the same about Karl Malone for that matter. Kawhi had a prototypical 6'7", 225-lb body with long arms, huge hands and solid functional athleticism. He was more skilled and had more shooting touch than people realized. He maxed out his potential. Steal Rate is also sometimes a leading indicator of the functional athleticism needed to be a star.
 
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