Game Thread Mar 20, 2023 07:00PM MT: Jazz vs. Kings

[HermanG]

People are really underrating Rudy's screening and rim-running. That's offense, too, and it was a huge part of an elite Jazz offense.

But all of that took time to develop. Kessler is a rookie, so we have to imagine what he could be or then we try and remember rookie Rudy.

It took him what 3-4 years to break 10 PPG mark? My guess is Kessler gonna hit 15 next year. He is already at 13.7 on per 36.

Rudy was 9.1/11.0 in his 3rd year (1st as full time starter with 31mpg).

 

[fishonjazz]

This response is confusing to me. You say everyone understands that the draft isn't random, but then you follow it up by saying the draft is random?

Player evaluation is extremely difficult, but it doesn't mean it's random.

ok. Lets go with player evaluation is so difficult (extremely even to use your word) that it seems to almost turn into a crapshoot. Better?

 

[fishonjazz]

The first three have got a ton of playing time. this season, other than maybe Sexton who seems to be a walking injury at this point in his career. The last three were moved to give the, uh, youths more playing time, hence the youth movement.. THT is getting Conley's minutes. Kessler is getting Vando's. Ochai is getting Beasley's.

If giving conleys minutes to tht and beasleys to ochai and vandos to kessler is the best way to get wins then why wasn't that happening all along? Or are you saying that they weren't trying to get wins?

 

[fishonjazz]

Another interesting comparison between Gobert and Kessler:
Gobert recently went to a team with its eye on a championship.
Kessler went to a team with its eye on some draft picks.

Goberts team has a .493 winning percentage
Kesslers teams has a .493 winning percentage

Goberts team has an offensive rating of 113.2
Kesslers team has an offensive rating of 116.1

Goberts team has a defensive rating of 113.3
Kesslers team has a defensive rating of 115.8

Goberts team has a net rating of negative .01
Kesslers team has a net rating of plus .03

And remember, kessler is a 21 year old making 2.7 million per year
Gobert is a 30 year old making 38.2 million per year

Fun times lol.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Another interesting comparison between Gobert and Kessler:
Gobert recently went to a team with its eye on a championship.
Kessler went to a team with its eye on some draft picks.

Goberts team has a .493 winning percentage
Kesslers teams has a .493 winning percentage

Goberts team has an offensive rating of 113.2
Kesslers team has an offensive rating of 116.1

Goberts team has a defensive rating of 113.3
Kesslers team has a defensive rating of 115.8

Goberts team has a net rating of negative .01
Kesslers team has a net rating of plus .03

And remember, kessler is a 21 year old making 2.7 million per year
Gobert is a 30 year old making 38.2 million per year

Fun times lol.

Key word here being team.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Another interesting comparison between Gobert and Kessler:
Gobert recently went to a team with its eye on a championship.
Kessler went to a team with its eye on some draft picks.

Goberts team has a .493 winning percentage
Kesslers teams has a .493 winning percentage

Goberts team has an offensive rating of 113.2
Kesslers team has an offensive rating of 116.1

Goberts team has a defensive rating of 113.3
Kesslers team has a defensive rating of 115.8

Goberts team has a net rating of negative .01
Kesslers team has a net rating of plus .03

And remember, kessler is a 21 year old making 2.7 million per year
Gobert is a 30 year old making 38.2 million per year

Fun times lol.

Lauri would be the best player on Minnesota too, I think.

 

[fishonjazz]

Key word here being team.

Sure. Thats kinda the point though. Gobert went to a TEAM trying to win a championship. Kessler went to a team looking for some good draft picks.

Would be interesting for someone to break down each teams offensive and defensive ratings with each player on and off the court.

 

[framer]

Gobert would look pretty damn good in Kessler's spot, better than he does in Minny. I'm not sure he would be 36 million dollars better, but he would be killing it.

 

[Watcher]

People are really underrating Rudy's screening and rim-running. That's offense, too, and it was a huge part of an elite Jazz offense.

Valid point.

 

[fishonjazz]

Another feather in Kessler cap is that his star teammate (and other teammates) really seems to like him. Gobert seemed to rub everyone the wrong way (except neto)

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Gobert would look pretty damn good in Kessler's spot, better than he does in Minny. I'm not sure he would be 36 million dollars better, but he would be killing it.

Some of it's team and coaching, but watching Gobert this year it is obvious he isn't the same player. I'm not sure if it's just a down year or if he's just declining with age.

 

[hgb]

Just for fun here are all the #4 and #15s from 2000 to 2020, 21 and 22 are too soon to tell really...

2000 - Marcus Fizer vs Jason Collier
2001 - Eddy Curry vs Steven Hunter
2002 - Drew Gooden vs Bostjan Nachbar
2003 - Chris Bosch vs Reece Gaines
2004 - Shaun Livingston vs Al Jefferson
2005 - Chris Paul vs Antoine Wright
2006 - Tyrus Thomas vs Cedric Simmons
2007 - Mike Conley vs Rodney Stuckey
2008 - Russell Westbrook vs Robin Lopez
2009 - Tyreke Evans vs Austin Daye
2010 - Wesley Johnson vs Larry Sanders
2011 - Tristan Thompson vs Kawhi Leonard
2012 - Dion Waiters vs Maurice Harkless
2013 - Cody Zeller vs Giannis Antetokoumpo
2014 - Aaron Gordon vs Adreian Payne
2015 - Kristapz Porzingas vs Kelly Oubre
2016 - Dragan Bender vs Juancho Hernangomez
2017 - Josh Jackson vs Justin Jackson
2018 - Jaren Jackson vs Troy Brown
2019 - D'Andre Hunter vs Sekou Doumbouya
2020 - Patrick Williams vs Cole Anthony

By my reckoning, 4 absolutely destroyed 15 in 5 or maybe 6 of these years. 15 destroyed 4 in 3, maybe 4 years on a stretch. The rest were roughly even, imo.

There's Giannis and Kawhi obviously, but who's the third?

I'd say Bosch, CP3, Conley, Gordon, Westbrook and probably JJJ (a little early to say) for 4th and Giannis and Kawhi for 15. Big Al had so much less injuries than Livingston, so I guess he wins too, but Livingston did manage to carve out a decent career too in the end.

So out of 21 years, 4 was the better choice 6/21 or about 30% of the time. 15 was the better choice 4/21 or about 20% of the time and the other half of the time it was fairly a crap shoot with busts and ok players coming in both positions.

Interesting. Of course a lot of this depends on your analysis of player impact and for me, just now, I did it on my gut, no stats. So take that for what it's worth.

Another interesting list would be to see e.g. 4-7 vs 14-17 or something like that. Takes away the outliers like Kawhi and Giannis, but also a lot of work to compile and compare the lists...