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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

KqWIN said:
Sorry if that's confusing. What I mean is that there are guys drafted later in the draft, but it's not because people think they don't have potential. There are guys who are drafted later whose potential is their main selling point. These guys are often seen as boom or bust guys. Maybe this makes it more clear with the three groups:

1. High ceiling, high floor
2. Low Ceiling, high floor
3. High ceiling, low floor (aka boom or bust)

This is obviously very generic, but I hope you get what I mean.

I actually mention Jaden McDaniels a lot when this discussion comes up. His development is a key factor in how I've formed this opinion. Jaden was considered boom or bust because he was big time recruit and bucket getter, almost like a baby Durant. Jaden still has a lot of career ahead of him, but I think it's important to note how he became a good pick. It has had almost nothing to do with his bucket getting and almost everything to do with his role player ability. In other words, the idea that people had in their heads when they thought "high potential" did not come true at all. I do not mean to say that these guys will never pan out, because obviously they do, but when they do pan out it seems like they do so by completely changing their game like McDaniels into a small usage role. And there's a reason for that, if they weren't good enough at something at the NCAA level they probably need to find another way in the NBA because it does not get easier.

If you were a bad shot creator at the college level, chances are you're not going to get on the court by doing the same thing. There are very few players in the NBA who are good at creating offense. It might be the most difficult thing to do at the NBA level and you also have to be very good at it to warrant the opportunity to do so. Even the elite prospects will usually struggle to do this early on. They are afforded that opportunity because the team has already invested so much into them, but if you're not a top draft pick they aren't going to wait for you to keep developing. I find that there are more players in group 2 that actually do become those all star, all nba level players. The main reason why is because they can actually get on the court and give themselves an opportunity to expand and elevate their game.

So when it comes to a prospect like GG, I don't automatically hate him because he was an inefficient chucker. But IMO, the conversation with him should not start with his sky high potential as a bucket getter. That is getting way to far ahead of ourselves, and I do believe you should at least be good at the thing you're getting hype for. The conversation should start with how he can help an NBA team like McDaniels did. I've said this many times before, it's not just the scoring I'm skeptical about. It's also that he was a horrid defender, passer, and was not able to use his physical tools to impact the game. He had a much better reputation for this stuff in HS, but those are still question marks.

I am open to the idea that he is better than he showed, but I am not of the opinion that we should just assume he is good at those things. If I'm going to buy into him as a player, I need to buy into a version of him we did not see in college because I can't buy into him being a better version of what we saw. This is true of most players to some extent, but the main selling point of GG has been his potential to do what he tried to do in college but better. Jaden was a 26% usage player in college with about 30% of his baskets assisted. He is now a 16% usage player who gets 75% of his baskets assisted. I don't think GG's transition has to be quite that dramatic, but going from bad college shot maker -> good nba shot maker is just not a path that works.
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Where can I find the Cliff Notes version of your posts?
 
Elizah Huge said:
I also like Dariq Whitehead more than most. I know Cy likes him a lot too and I believe HH likes him as well.

I think he should be squarely in the conversation for 16. If he didn’t get injured this year we would probably be talking about him a lot at 9.

He barely turns 19 in August and shot 42.9% from 3 on 3.5 attempts per game. Super high upside with him. He was the 2nd ranked overall player in the 2022 class.

He’s one of those guys people will look back and wonder how he fell to where he did.
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I like the idea behind him and it’s the right type of gamble. It might be a slight reach at 16 for me but if the medicals look real good then I’d move him up.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Just looked and he shot 51.5% on catch and shoot 3’s. That is elite.
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Yeah and he defended okay too… from what I understand. It’s just that he didn’t do much of anything else. The foot likely bugged him during the year and definitely left him behind schedule to start the season. He was one of those guys that was invisible in the games until he hit a shot.

It’s banking on the shooting and pedigree. I would bet on him… just have a few others I might prefer.
 
Success in the playoffs ultimately comes down to one team having the most unstoppable offensive player. Jokic and Butler have been the most unstoppable players during 4th quarters in the playoffs. It's nice if there's a second guy who can become unstoppable for a stretch of the game (like Jamal Murray tonight), but it still comes down to the MVP making plays in the 4th quarter.

A team pretty much has to have a top MVP candidate to make deep runs. So then the question is, are there any players in this draft who can be top-5, All NBA, unstoppable offensive players?
 
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Elizah Huge said:
I think Dereck Lively is going to be a steal for someone. We don’t talk about him because we have Kessler but he’s underrated.
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His value in this draft is going up because he's long enough to get in front of Wembanyama. If I were NOLA or HOU, I'd go get him for that reason alone.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Success in the playoffs ultimately comes down to one team having the most unstoppable offensive player. Jokic and Butler have been the most unstoppable players during 4th quarters in the playoffs. It's nice if there's a second guy who can become unstoppable for a stretch of the game (like Jamal Murray tonight), but it still comes down to the MVP making plays in the 4th quarter.

A team pretty much has to have a top MVP candidate to make deep runs. So then the question is, are there any players in this draft who can be top-5, All NBA, unstoppable offensive players?
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So that’s why I’ve always liked GG and Keyonte for #9 and #16.

They seem to have scorers mentality and with the right coaching could be special.

I mean look at what Hardy was able to do with Lauri.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Success in the playoffs ultimately comes down to one team having the most unstoppable offensive player. Jokic and Butler have been the most unstoppable players during 4th quarters in the playoffs. It's nice if there's a second guy who can become unstoppable for a stretch of the game (like Jamal Murray tonight), but it still comes down to the MVP making plays in the 4th quarter.

A team pretty much has to have a top MVP candidate to make deep runs. So then the question is, are there any players in this draft who can be top-5, All NBA, unstoppable offensive players?
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Jimmy not a top 5 guy. There's multiple ways to create a great team. The superstar is the best, but you can't waste a decade spinning your wheels until you get one. Lauri is good enough. Build around him with quality and see where he can take you
 
How many teams actually get someone who performed like Lauri and flipped them a year later?

The only time guys who put up stats like that get traded early are if it's obviously bad team/good stats guys or they just have the worst vibes. It just doesn't seem to happen. That's why I don't even feel there is much fun discussing it because it feels so out of the question.

Danny Ainge isn't some bitch *** GM who has to push a plan of hope by being awful for 4 straight years so he can get 4 years of job security. I think the dude wants to be in title conversations within the next 2 years, 3 years maximum.
 
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