Optimistic Jazz Math

[franklin]

Degree in philanthropy? I don't know if I can take anything you say serious again, Mr. Bodhi. Nuthin.

If Favors turns into a beast, but a beast at 8mil instead of 14mil, that would be amazing

Kwame Brown. DeAndre Jordan. Greg Osterrrruuhhhhhh. $8mm is not going to happen. 10-12 minimum, Ursula Upper.

So, to come full circle, being that I just jet around the country glad handing for my various charities and having wild, uninhibited liaisons with models as per my degree's description, I'm prone to missing key details sometimes.

Degree in philanthropy!

 

[JohnnyClutch]

I hated seeing Wes matthews go a couple of years ago because he played hard on both sides of the court, right type of work ethic, team player, ect

The Jazz totally screwed up on Matthews. All they needed to do was sign him for 3 years with a team option for the 2nd and 3rd and he would have gobbled it. Unsigned rookies have no bargaining power.

 

[Jazz4ever]

The Jazz totally screwed up on Matthews. All they needed to do was sign him for 3 years with a team option for the 2nd and 3rd and he would have gobbled it. Unsigned rookies have no bargaining power.

Not sure if 2 team options in a 3 year contract is allowed, but don't forget this was also the year Miles "bulked up" and was supposedly going to break out. Matthews was just looked at as a filler until Miles finger healed.

 

[billyshelby]

No doubt KOC is a shrewd guy. And yeah, I think preserving longterm signability is part of his strategy. But to be honest, I also think it's better for young guys to wade in gradually in terms of player development. First you make every player earn minutes and then you make sure they understand winning is what will get them minutes. But on the flip side of that, you can't hold back a young guy who contributes to winning or you're polluting the message. Deron was ready out of the gate and he had to play. If Burks was ready for 30 next year (he won't be), you have to give him those minutes no matter how it affects his signability.

 

[billyshelby]

The Jazz totally screwed up on Matthews. All they needed to do was sign him for 3 years with a team option for the 2nd and 3rd and he would have gobbled it. Unsigned rookies have no bargaining power.

The revisionist history on Wes signing with Portland has to end. For the millionth time, Wes' agent was looking for maximum FA money which, given his one year tenure, was just shy of MLE money (a one year guy can only get such and such a raise on the open market.) There were even reports that KOC made overtures on a deal, but was specifically told Wes was testing the waters. And it's not like Wes called up KOC to say what Portland's offer was so a hometown discount could be arranged. He just signed it.

 

[Bodhi]

No doubt KOC is a shrewd guy. And yeah, I think preserving longterm signability is part of his strategy. But to be honest, I also think it's better for young guys to wade in gradually in terms of player development. First you make every player earn minutes and then you make sure they understand winning is what will get them minutes. But on the flip side of that, you can't hold back a young guy who contributes to winning or you're polluting the message. Deron was ready out of the gate and he had to play. If Burks was ready for 30 next year (he won't be), you have to give him those minutes no matter how it affects his signability.

I agree, and thats another part of the "luck" equation though in my mind. If you have a Durant type talent you cant "hide" them without doing damage to your team and pissing off the player in question. All of these guys need to be brought along slow, and while thats not better than having a bonafide star out of the gate its better than throwing them to the wolves and asking them to be the man when they clearly aren't ready.

They get on the job experience without having to be burdened with the load of huge expectations of a fan base because they don't have a Millsap, AJ or Howard in front of them.

And to Franklin's point, I will concede 8mil probably isn't happening for Favors, even shaving 2-3mil from what he could have gotten helps a franchise quite a bit if that also happens with 2-3 other guys. Saving 8mil collectively across the board is the difference between potentially competing for a championship and not, IMO.

 

[UtahMan]

Bodhi, I basically agree with what you have said and appreciate your comments. The one issue that I would raise is that I don't see any of those four young guys as a star player (i.e. top twenty). My bet is that Favors will be the best of the bunch, but I think that to make a championship run, we would need at least one top 10-20 player. What do you think?

 

[franklin]

And to Franklin's point, I will concede 8mil probably isn't happening for Favors, even shaving 2-3mil from what he could have gotten helps a franchise quite a bit if that also happens with 2-3 other guys. Saving 8mil collectively across the board is the difference between potentially competing for a championship and not, IMO.

I wasn't meaning to nit pick. You're onto the downside to the huge upside. If all four of these players turn out how some thought they would before the season started then the Jazz are going to have a fun time trying to keep four max guys. I don't think it will turn out anywhere near that rosie but having even one max and 3 12-14mm per players is a hefty load. NBA teams need Duncans and Parkers, and a grip of cheap inpact filler.

 

[Bodhi]

I wasn't meaning to nit pick. You're onto the downside to the huge upside. If all four of these players turn out how some thought they would before the season started then the Jazz are going to have a fun time trying to keep four max guys. I don't think it will turn out anywhere near that rosie but having even one max and 3 12-14mm per players is a hefty load. NBA teams need Duncans and Parkers, and a grip of cheap inpact filler.

I personally dont think any of them will warrant max money, but I do think one or more could be a very integral piece to a potential championship run. One that was facilitated by our front office having a mix of luck and smarts in setting us up with a very solid, complimentary line up to an as of yet un-named max type guy.

Can we lure one to Utah in FA? Who knows, but I think our chances are much greater if we arent in a situation that Dwight Howard is trying to get out of. Dwights not trying to leave because he hates Orlando, he's wanting out because financially Otis SMith as gotten them into a terrible financial situation that wont allow them much, if any, opportunity to make more progress. They are sort of stuck.

My point all along hasn't been about these guys being max guys, but rather very solid player (some better than others) on value added contracts so we can go beyond them with other guys that CAN get us to a championship.

 

[BluesRocker]

Great analysis, enough to make me register so i could respond to your comments. It wouldn't surprise me if KOC is operating like you mentioned above with your theory of breaking down playing time. I hated seeing Wes matthews go a couple of years ago because he played hard on both sides of the court, right type of work ethic, team player, ect. It almost happened the year before with Milsap. I don't want to see it again with some of our young guys. I agree with your assessment above, you are not missing anything. Great insight!

You just made the biggest mistake of your life. You wont be able to leave now. Jazzfanz has you now. Your soul is ours

 

[Stifle Tower]

We are in great shape as a franchise, as long as our youth develop into solid NBA players. I hope and pray that the youngsters develop and become players we can build around. But...

-Favors, has few offensive moves and is not consistent. He is still raw, but needs a post-up game.
-Hayward, Has no confidence in his shot and has a lot of turnovers. He may never be a good shooter and he gets overpowered on defense.
-Burks, Can drive great, but is wildly out of control. Great open court player, but he needs to work in a half-court offense.
-Kanter, He is a rebounding machine, but is clueless on offense and doesn't know how to move on defense. I don't know if I can recall a high first round draft pick this raw, who has developed into a dependable NBA starter. He could be the next Darko or the next Jermaine O'Neal.

Let's all hope that the youngersters reach their potential.

Talk about Debbie Downer. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 

[Stifle Tower]

The Jazz totally screwed up on Matthews. All they needed to do was sign him for 3 years with a team option for the 2nd and 3rd and he would have gobbled it. Unsigned rookies have no bargaining power.

Actually, no. Drafted 1st-rounders have no bargaining power. Salaries are slotted and raises are controlled by the CBA.

So looking into the magic crystal ball, KOC just KNEW what 29 other GM's did not: that Wesley Matthews would be that one in a million player who goes from undrafted player to starter in half a season.

Undrafted players...if they make a team, usually don't have their contracts even guaranteed until the deadline. Wes just kept getting better as the season progressed. And kudos to him for the HUGE contract. Outside of Portland, you'll find 29 GM's who thought the kind of money Wesley got was absurd. Name the last NBA player to do what Wes did? There are none. No one has ever gone undrafted, then signed a contract for that amount of money the next offseason.

In hindsight, given Utah's financial constraints, had the Jazz matched the offer for Matthews, another player would have needed to be dumped. And in that situation, it may have required giving UP a pick (just like moving Hayward's salary required Maynor to be included). I like Matthews; I wish he were still on the Jazz. But I'm solidly behind KOC and Greg for not awarding a 1/2 season starter that kind of a contract.