Jazz are recalling Cody from the Gleague.
2024-2025 Tank Race
- Thread starter SoberasHotRod
- Start date
We can’t even tank right.
This team.. lol..
#smh
This team.. lol..
#smh
Such a silly post. It was 1st vs 5th odds, not 6th, and the premise was that we must land a top 2 pick. Pick floor seems pointless in that context.
Also FYI the average expected draft position for the worst record is 3.7, and for 5th worst its 5.0.... but thats besides the point if the argument is that we must land Flagg/Harper.
Then this entire season is besides the point if we MUST land Flagg/Harper, because statistically we are not getting them regardless of our record (27% chances in the best case scenario). The goal of tanking is not getting for sure 1st or 2nd pick but significantly improving your chances to end up with a higher pick. Having 1st vs 5th odds does exactly that.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
If we don't get a top 2 pick, the season absolutely was a waste.
The goal is maximizing the odds that the season was not a waste.
The goal is maximizing the odds that the season was not a waste.
Brsn
Well-Known Member
There's a lot of depth in this upcoming draft. I'd rather have a top 7 pick in it than compete for a play in spot and forfeit the pick to OKC. That being said I really would like our pick to be at least top 3.
I somewhat agree with the sentiment, but I don't think you can say anything like that definitively.
It will feel like a setback and be more difficult in building a championship roster if we don't draft a franchise talent in this draft. Right now it looks like there are two players who have a decent chance of that type of impact (Harper and Flagg) although I wouldn't quibble with anyone who though their was 3 (Kasparas). There are potentially a few more, but the likelihood is much less.
There is no certainty with any of this and we are just dealing with probabilities that if anybody tried to exactly quantify would just be guessing. We won't really know if the tank was a success for at least 6 months to years later.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Ehh, I view 3-5 in this class as pretty bad. And 6-10 are just fine. 11-20 is good, but it's top 2 pick or bust.
Don't break out that fancy word "probability" with this dude. He's in another thread talking about "randomness" and "luck" like he's a 6th grader.
Why people are so sure that the only franchise players in this draft will be found in the top2? Historically, it is simply wrong and most of the franchise players in each draft are found OUTSIDE of top 2. That is, the conventional wisdom about who will be the best is typically wrong (with the exception of rare cases like Wemby or LeBron). I want to remind anyone that Jordan was drafted 3rd. And here it is for more recent drafts:
2015 - Towns and Russel (1-2) vs. Porzingis (4) and Booker (14)
2016 - Simmons and Ingram (1-2) vs. Brown (3), Sabonis (11), Siakam (27)
2017 - Fultz and Lonzo Ball (1-2) vs. Tatum (3), Fox (5), Mitchell (13)
2018 - Ayton and Bagley (1-2) vs. Doncic (3), Young (5), SGA (11), Brunson (33)
2019 - Zion and Morant (1-2) vs Garland (5)
2020 - Edwards and Wiseman (1-2) vs LaMelo Ball (3), Haliburton (12), Maxey (21)
What makes you think that the 2025 draft will be any different?
2015 - Towns and Russel (1-2) vs. Porzingis (4) and Booker (14)
2016 - Simmons and Ingram (1-2) vs. Brown (3), Sabonis (11), Siakam (27)
2017 - Fultz and Lonzo Ball (1-2) vs. Tatum (3), Fox (5), Mitchell (13)
2018 - Ayton and Bagley (1-2) vs. Doncic (3), Young (5), SGA (11), Brunson (33)
2019 - Zion and Morant (1-2) vs Garland (5)
2020 - Edwards and Wiseman (1-2) vs LaMelo Ball (3), Haliburton (12), Maxey (21)
What makes you think that the 2025 draft will be any different?
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Obviously there's a chance and one or two probably will, but each individual player is unlikely so we probably won't get a game changing player after 2.
Ainge hasn't really shown any elite drafting skills either these last few years to make anyone confident that he can find a star even in a perceived lower tier.