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2024-2025 Tank Race

NUMBERICA said:
They’ve been running an asset-accumulation masterclass and we’re on the other side of one of them.

Philly MIGHT get as high as 5th in non-lottery draft order which, I think, caps their best odds at 42% of keeping their pick. I think they finish 6th which is 35%.
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Not sure where you're getting your percentages from.

Going from Tankathon, I get them at 63.9% if they finish 5th worst (possible, though probably not likely). At 6th they'd be at 43.4%. Even if they stay at 7th, they have 34.5% odds of keeping their pick.

You're not calculating as if the pick is top-5 protected rather than top-6, by chance, are you?
 
idiot said:
Not sure where you're getting your percentages from.

Going from Tankathon, I get them at 63.9% if they finish 5th worst (possible, though probably not likely). At 6th they'd be at 43.4%. Even if they stay at 7th, they have 34.5% odds of keeping their pick.

You're not calculating as if the pick is top-5 protected rather than top-6, by chance, are you?
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Tankathon. They HAVE to hit top-4 to keep their pick. Are you looking at the odds that they do NOT jump into the top-4? Because these are looking like inverses.
 
The next 3 games are probably the most important remaining games. It would be fairly easy to go on a 3 game winning streak right here.

I would say best case we can realistically hope for is 1-2.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The next 3 games are probably the most important remaining games. It would be fairly easy to go on a 3 game winning streak right here.

I would say best case we can realistically hope for is 1-2.
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What’s the downside to fielding a g-league equivalent team in the 2 games against the Wizards?

We KNOW what we need to do.

I just don’t get why we don’t just do it.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Jazz lose by 28
WAS loses by 16
CHA loses by 18
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At this point in the race I'm happy with every teams result as long as the jazz get a loss.
Doesn't even upset me to see the other tankers lose if the jazz also lose. I used to hate to see the other tankers lose but the jazz are doing such a great job that I'm much more comfortable seeing other tankers lose now.

I'm super happy with 3rd worst record. I have been feeling like 3rd worst is the lucky spot for Cooper Flagg all season long.

Btw, I'm one of the biggest Stephen King fans in the world (at list count I had read about 60 of his novels and have read many of them multiple times) and Flagg is a prominent character in many of his books. It is destiny for my favorite sports team to get a player named Flagg.

If there is ever a star player named Roland then we getting him too
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Not really.
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Doesn't bottom 3 have the best odds at the number 1 pick?

Like finishing 5th worst has worse odds at Flagg than finishing 3rd worst, right?

I want the best odds possible at Flagg so finishing 3rd worst vs 5th worse definitely matters a lot to me.

Ending up with the 2nd pick vs the 5th pick doesn't really matter to me and I think that is actually what Cy was talking about.
 
Jaanipoeg said:
If you're resigned to Cooper or bust, I'd get not even caring about 2nd or 3rd with New Orleans, but staying bottom 3 had pretty massive effects on our odds of getting Cooper.
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I thought Cy was saying that he doesn't care much between getting the #2 pick or the #5 pick.

I think he cares as far as final season record. For that I'm guessing he wants to finish in the bottom 3 worst record and that does matter to him.
 
The Midnight said:
What’s the downside to fielding a g-league equivalent team in the 2 games against the Wizards?

We KNOW what we need to do.

I just don’t get why we don’t just do it.
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The league investigating and Silver giving our pick to the Lakers as punishment? With our luck I wouldn't even be that surprised.
 
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