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Tre Johnson Will Likely be The 5th Pick

SoberasHotRod said:
For me personally, it's too difficult to say who is for sure the best prospect between Tre, VJ, and Ace. So I really don't want to give up assets to trade up.

At the same time I think it's likely that one of those three is significantly better than the others in the end, and if the FO figures out who that is then I think trading up makes sense.
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Counter: our top pick suuucked last year and our two late picks were really good for it being such a ****** draft.

Two bites at the apple has real value. Especially since I'm developing a pretty long list of players I like and one of them will probably be available at 21 (Wolf, Flemming, Beringer, Bryant, Coward).
 
Thee Idiotic Minivan K said:
You’re not an idiot. I want Tre out of all three.
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I'm actually leaning that way as well. I think his offensive load excuses some coasting on defense, but thats hopium and not really part of the reason why I like him.

He is a flamethrower who engages a lot with the crowd and draws energy from them much like JC. But unlike JC he doesnt do extended search dribbles and generally plays a lot quicker and more modern style of basketball in half-court offense. He has shown that he can find guys and make some good passes as well, even if he ddnt really do that a lot in college. He can shoot from anywhere and from any state (stationary, movement, off driible, on balance, off balance)... Its also hard not to love almost 40% from 3 on almost 7 attempts and 87% FT shooting. That will command gravity in the NBA, so even if he ends up being a role player he will still have a career. Plus he is absolutely killing the combine workouts based on what I've seen.

I think he has AS potential, and if Cooper Flagg doesnt win ROTY for some reason I would be willing to bet Tre wins it (his game will probably translate faster than that of Harper, Ace and VJ).
 
NUMBERICA said:
Counter: our top pick suuucked last year and our two late picks were really good for it being such a ****** draft.

Two bites at the apple has real value. Especially since I'm developing a pretty long list of players I like and one of them will probably be available at 21 (Wolf, Flemming, Beringer, Bryant, Coward).
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Yeah, I get that. I think it comes down to how random you think the draft is vs how skilled at drafting you think our FO is/ should be. They have a lot more information/ time/ resources/ experience that should make them more likely to pick the right player. However, history suggests that they might not be that much better than the average amateur draft nerd.

How much of a prospects future is predictable based on the information a front office has available to them? People on this message board often speak with the kind of bravado that would make you think they are capable of making those predictions with far less information. In reality, it feel like you can only guess with about 25% accuracy, so I would tend to agree that I would prefer more chances to get it right. I guess I still hope that our FO can be better than that, but it's mostly unfounded hope.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Counter: our top pick suuucked last year and our two late picks were really good for it being such a ****** draft.

Two bites at the apple has real value. Especially since I'm developing a pretty long list of players I like and one of them will probably be available at 21 (Wolf, Flemming, Beringer, Bryant, Coward).
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I got called stupid for this same take. Shrug
 
NUMBERICA said:
Counter: our top pick suuucked last year and our two late picks were really good for it being such a ****** draft.

Two bites at the apple has real value. Especially since I'm developing a pretty long list of players I like and one of them will probably be available at 21 (Wolf, Flemming, Beringer, Bryant, Coward).
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The issue is just that we are going to have too many guys very soon.

Already 7 guys on rookie contracts, most of them were one and done, 6 are still in need of a lot of development. One has barely played in the NBA due to injury.
 
HadAnEffectHere said:
The issue is just that we are going to have too many guys very soon.

Already 7 guys on rookie contracts, most of them were one and done, 6 are still in need of a lot of development. One has barely played in the NBA due to injury.
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Get rid of the vets. Then there is plenty of minutes and development for everyone. Get more bites of the apple and find out which bites taste good. There will almost certainly be injuries. There will be dudes going back and forth to the g-league and jazz roster too.
 
Just saw a ranking of college basketball shooting guards from lasts season done by something called "CBK Report" and they have Kon #1, Tre #5, and VJ #9. (have richie saunders at #4 fwiw)

View: https://www.instagram.com/p/DJsN0pUS80j/#
 
fishonjazz said:
I got called stupid for this same take. Shrug
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No, you said you wouldn’t trade 21 because whoever we pick at 21 could be as good as who we pick at 5.

While that is true, the % is super small, and with that logic no team should trade any picks ever.
 
I'd rather hold onto our #21 pick because with this year's prospects in the #3-5 range, it's tough to predict what they will be after 4-5 years. Not enough separation there for me.
 

Draft Pick
Probability of Becoming an All-Star

1
63%

2-3
48%

4-6
28%

7-12
16%

13-20
11%

21-30
5%

2nd round
2.5%


I once put together the above table to give a basic idea of the probability of a draft pick becoming an All-Star (based on 30 drafts from 1989 to 2019 and players selected for All-Star Games). The odds of a #5 pick turning into an All-Star were 28% during those 30 years (roughly once every 4 years). I believe these odds are higher this year, and our #5 pick should give us a pretty solid player (even if he never becomes an All Star).
 
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