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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

Ferguson_Mellochill said:
If the Jazz want Fears, I could see them swapping picks with Washington, taking Fears at 6, and moving up to 18 with their 2nd pick. Jazz could then potentially move up a bit from 18 with a second deal.


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Fears just shows much more natural scoring and playmaking ability than Ace/Tre/VJ. He can effortlessly make space for any type of shot he wants. Also relentless at trying to get to the rim, using craft, elite handle, and physicality despite his youth and smallish frame to get shots at the rim and draw a ridiculous amount of free throws. No other player I have watched this draft is as smooth and easy as Fears at getting his own shot and creating advantages.

His elite handle will also be able to handle the type of ball pressure that our guards struggle with.

His high feel also shows up on the defensive end with a really high steal count and good rebounding for his size.

The shooting % from 3 is mainly due to the crazy off the dribble 3s he took with confidence. The shooting will come around as he is great in the midrange, great with free throws, and good with catch and shoot 3s. He is ridiculously good for a reclassified Freshman as this year was supposed to be his senior year in high school. He is only 18 and will naturally get stronger which will help with finishing the tougher layups he tries and the long range 3s he takes.

The guy is also a big game player who rose to the occasion late in the year after a midseason slump. This was in the SEC as well.

Perhaps I am being overly optimistic but Fears has that star upside that I don't see in the other options at 5.

To me, he is the easy pick at 5 in almost all circumstances (Flagg or Harper falling would change things). Not that I don't like Tre or Kon or VJ but Fears has more to him.
 
Basketball Novice said:
Perhaps I am being overly optimistic but Fears has that star upside that I don't see in the other options at 5.
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The problem I have with Fears is that he is a ball dominant lead guard who has great iso scoring ability and mediocre playmaking, which is a near useless archtype if he doesnt actually turn into a star/superstar level player.

Then if I look at "the chance of him turning into a superstar" I just dont see it. He is 6'4 (in shoes) under-the-rim athlete who had 1.2 AST/TO and horrible off the dribble efficiency (including 44.5% at the rim).

In my eyes he is an inch taller Kyrie/Dame without their shooting and scoring touch.
 
HermanG said:
The problem I have with Fears is that he is a ball dominant lead guard who has great iso scoring ability and mediocre playmaking, which is a near useless archtype if he doesnt actually turn into a star/superstar level player.

Then if I look at "the chance of him turning into a superstar" I just dont see it. He is 6'4 (in shoes) under-the-rim athlete who had 1.2 AST/TO and horrible off the dribble efficiency (including 44.5% at the rim).

In my eyes he is an inch taller Kyrie/Dame without their shooting and scoring touch.
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It's more about the process with him than the raw numbers. I will give you the %s aren't great at the first glance but he created almost everything for his team. He practically backpacked Oklahoma to the tournament, by far their best player. He is definitely PG sized and that will be his only position. The bad at rim numbers are balanced out by the great foul drawing numbers. Despite the bad %s at the rim and at the 3, Fears still has a decent efficiency at 56% TS which is actually better than Tre's efficiency at 55% TS and Ace's efficiency at 53% TS.

That is the benefit of attacking the rim constantly and drawing fouls at a great rate. He gets turnovers because he is trying passes and dribbling into the teeth of packed in college defenses. I prefer that to guys who never attack the rim and constantly settle for contested jumpers.

His assist % is also quite good at 28.6%. For reference Kasparas is at 26%, Harper is at 27%, Tre is at 16.5%, Ace is at 8.3%, VJ is at 19.2%, Kon is at 15.7%

If I am using assist % wrong, someone can correct me but I think it's a decent measure of passing vision/ability.

I don't know how to look up off the dribble efficiencies but according to Barttorvik,

on non rim 2s :

Fears is 46%
Harper is 30%
Ace is 46%
Tre is 37%
VJ is 38.5%

He is quite deadly in the midrange, as good as Bailey. Of course, he doesn't shoot as many as Bailey.

Fear's FT% and Midrange% indicate he is an excellent shooter, just one who hasn't stretched it out to off the dribble 3s yet. Time and reps will get him there.

But, honestly it's not a numbers thing for me. Watching him play, it looks effortless for him. Most of his misses at the rim are just very ambitious layup attempts after he maneuvers through a bunch of defenders. He gets a little stronger or a little smarter on when to take those and he will improve. I realize I am probably extending some grace to Fears that I am not to Tre/Ace/VJ but Fear's looks to be a much more complete offensive player at a younger age.

He is a really young prospect (18) who is almost but not quite there yet. A little more growth in his overall game and he could hit in a big way.

I see almost 0% chance that Ace or Tre turn into central offensive players. They just don't have the overall offensive game required. I would place my bet on Fears.
 
Basketball Novice said:
It's more about the process with him than the raw numbers. I will give you the %s aren't great at the first glance but he created almost everything for his team. He practically backpacked Oklahoma to the tournament, by far their best player. He is definitely PG sized and that will be his only position. The bad at rim numbers are balanced out by the great foul drawing numbers. Despite the bad %s at the rim and at the 3, Fears still has a decent efficiency at 56% TS which is actually better than Tre's efficiency at 55% TS and Ace's efficiency at 53% TS.

That is the benefit of attacking the rim constantly and drawing fouls at a great rate. He gets turnovers because he is trying passes and dribbling into the teeth of packed in college defenses. I prefer that to guys who never attack the rim and constantly settle for contested jumpers.

His assist % is also quite good at 28.6%. For reference Kasparas is at 26%, Harper is at 27%, Tre is at 16.5%, Ace is at 8.3%, VJ is at 19.2%, Kon is at 15.7%

If I am using assist % wrong, someone can correct me but I think it's a decent measure of passing vision/ability.

I don't know how to look up off the dribble efficiencies but according to Barttorvik,

on non rim 2s :

Fears is 46%
Harper is 30%
Ace is 46%
Tre is 37%
VJ is 38.5%

He is quite deadly in the midrange, as good as Bailey. Of course, he doesn't shoot as many as Bailey.

Fear's FT% and Midrange% indicate he is an excellent shooter, just one who hasn't stretched it out to off the dribble 3s yet. Time and reps will get him there.

But, honestly it's not a numbers thing for me. Watching him play, it looks effortless for him. Most of his misses at the rim are just very ambitious layup attempts after he maneuvers through a bunch of defenders. He gets a little stronger or a little smarter on when to take those and he will improve. I realize I am probably extending some grace to Fears that I am not to Tre/Ace/VJ but Fear's looks to be a much more complete offensive player at a younger age.

He is a really young prospect (18) who is almost but not quite there yet. A little more growth in his overall game and he could hit in a big way.

I see almost 0% chance that Ace or Tre turn into central offensive players. They just don't have the overall offensive game required. I would place my bet on Fears.
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I appreciate the numbers breakdown but you dont adress the archtype concern at all. You said it that he needs to be a PG... but to be a PG he needs to be elite in either scoring or passing/playmaking... or great at both. He currently isnt great in either.

 Honestly the guy he reminds me the most is Kyrie, who is also super smooth and can get anywhere against almost anyone. But Kyrie is also an elite finisher. Kyrie in college had more points, more assists, less turnovers, better shooting numbers across the board and even more stocks in less minutes per game.

Fears is a fine "stab" at a potentially elite ballhandler.... but I think even if he somehow develops into his max potential then he is Kyrie with less scoring and more passing or something like that... which is fine for 2nd banana. Projecting that he becomes shorter SGA and good enough to actually be #1 on a contending team has no grounds. He would be a guaranteed top 3 pick if that was the actual upside projection.

For what its worth though, if we had "fit with LaurI" as any kind of concern I think Fears may be our best pick (its either him or VJ).
 
Basketball Novice said:
It's more about the process with him than the raw numbers. I will give you the %s aren't great at the first glance but he created almost everything for his team. He practically backpacked Oklahoma to the tournament, by far their best player. He is definitely PG sized and that will be his only position. The bad at rim numbers are balanced out by the great foul drawing numbers. Despite the bad %s at the rim and at the 3, Fears still has a decent efficiency at 56% TS which is actually better than Tre's efficiency at 55% TS and Ace's efficiency at 53% TS.

That is the benefit of attacking the rim constantly and drawing fouls at a great rate. He gets turnovers because he is trying passes and dribbling into the teeth of packed in college defenses. I prefer that to guys who never attack the rim and constantly settle for contested jumpers.

His assist % is also quite good at 28.6%. For reference Kasparas is at 26%, Harper is at 27%, Tre is at 16.5%, Ace is at 8.3%, VJ is at 19.2%, Kon is at 15.7%

If I am using assist % wrong, someone can correct me but I think it's a decent measure of passing vision/ability.

I don't know how to look up off the dribble efficiencies but according to Barttorvik,

on non rim 2s :

Fears is 46%
Harper is 30%
Ace is 46%
Tre is 37%
VJ is 38.5%

He is quite deadly in the midrange, as good as Bailey. Of course, he doesn't shoot as many as Bailey.

Fear's FT% and Midrange% indicate he is an excellent shooter, just one who hasn't stretched it out to off the dribble 3s yet. Time and reps will get him there.

But, honestly it's not a numbers thing for me. Watching him play, it looks effortless for him. Most of his misses at the rim are just very ambitious layup attempts after he maneuvers through a bunch of defenders. He gets a little stronger or a little smarter on when to take those and he will improve. I realize I am probably extending some grace to Fears that I am not to Tre/Ace/VJ but Fear's looks to be a much more complete offensive player at a younger age.

He is a really young prospect (18) who is almost but not quite there yet. A little more growth in his overall game and he could hit in a big way.

I see almost 0% chance that Ace or Tre turn into central offensive players. They just don't have the overall offensive game required. I would place my bet on Fears.
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I am in agreance with you on Fears. I really feel like he will end up being a star and my preference is for the Jazz to nab him at 5. Would be happy with Tre but would be over the moon with Fears.
 
HermanG said:
I appreciate the numbers breakdown but you dont adress the archtype concern at all. You said it that he needs to be a PG... but to be a PG he needs to be elite in either scoring or passing/playmaking... or great at both. He currently isnt great in either.

 Honestly the guy he reminds me the most is Kyrie, who is also super smooth and can get anywhere against almost anyone. But Kyrie is also an elite finisher. Kyrie in college had more points, more assists, less turnovers, better shooting numbers across the board and even more stocks in less minutes per game.

Fears is a fine "stab" at a potentially elite ballhandler.... but I think even if he somehow develops into his max potential then he is Kyrie with less scoring and more passing or something like that... which is fine for 2nd banana. Projecting that he becomes shorter SGA and good enough to actually be #1 on a contending team has no grounds. He would be a guaranteed top 3 pick if that was the actual upside projection.

For what its worth though, if we had "fit with LaurI" as any kind of concern I think Fears may be our best pick (its either him or VJ).
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Yea, currently he isn't elite by the numbers. Thats where the projection comes in. He isn't an elite scorer now but he is on the road to becoming one.

I project Fears to be a great 3 level scorer and playmaker, better than guys like De'Aaron Fox and Trae Young. It's a massive bar to get over but I think he has the skills to do it.

What do great scorers look like when they are early in their development? Are great scorers just born with the ability to shoot 40% from NBA 3 range? Obviously not. There is a learning process that takes place with the various basketball skills including shooting and dribbling. Some skills are more ingrained and other are more learned.

Fears is in that process right now, like all young players. And he decided to challenge college a year early in his development. So yea things look a bit unrefined.

I judge the essential parts to be there, namely the ability to attack the rim and draw fouls, the elite dribble, the physicality despite his size, the clutch shotmaking under pressure, the natural passing vision. What he is deficient in, the off the dribble 3s and the finishing at the rim, can be worked on.

For the comparison, Fears has a bit more athleticism than Kyrie. It's not to the level of Ja or any of the hyper athletic guards but he isn't completely outclassed either. It would be in the B to B+ range.

If your comparing all PGs to Kyrie then I'll just let you know now. No PG is going to match Kyrie's college production. He was insane in college even though he only played 10 games or something like that. The stats themselves look ridiculous. If the bar is College Kyrie, then your never drafting a PG high. Harper certainly doesn't meet that bar but maybe you exclude him because he is a 6'6" combo. Maybe Ja was close? But he played at Murray State and was a sophomore. Maybe your just out on the PG archetype in general.

Essentially, Fears has the right stuff but is a bit earlier on the development curve than someone like Ja or any guards who came out as upperclassman. Would I prefer to see better production and percentages from Fears, of course. But, he decided to come out into the draft now. We have to judge him as an 18 year old and project the rest of the development. And I look highly upon what skills he has and am very positive about his future development.
 
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