Will the Jazz Overachieve?

[SoberasHotRod]

20-35 with the upside more likely, possibly even 40. We got rid of our negative players attracting minutes except Svi. Nurkic looked good in Euros, Ace was a great get at our spot, Niang is a great culture booster and good shooter, everyone is raving about Key, Flip looks deadly good, Lauri doesn't want to tank anymore, Clayton was a steal, Hendricks looks buff and ready to tear into people, Brice seems to be an elite shooter, Kessler has matured into a great center and Cody was starting to groove at the end of summer league.

The only thing holding us back is inexperience (which has already been remedied somewhat) and a loaded Western Conference- wouldn't be too surprised to see us unload a player or two just to protect our pick, but I'm thinking all of them will make it hard to trade them except someone like Anderson/Nurkic. Lots of koolaid flowing, but really don't see which guy is going to be a big disappointment- maybe Key or Isaiah dragging down the PG position and Clayton needing more experience to really be a winning NBA player.

But boy, I see positive minute players pretty much everywhere on the roster.

Collins, Sexton, and Clarkson were our 2nd, 4th, and 7th highest BPM players last year. Our only remaining player that had a positive BPM last year is Kessler.

 

[JazzFever]

I think the Jazz are going to hand out minutes in such a manner that the win total stays around 20 games. It depends, in part, on what other teams are doing. Brooklyn straight sucks, and the Jazz may commit themselves to keep pace in the loss column. The Jazz will do what it takes to finish bottom 3 for the sake of lottery odds.

They're not hiding the fact that they want Dybantsa, and if we're being honest that's this season's mission.

I'd agree if it weren't for the press conference disavowing intentional tanking. Even then I just don't see who you can hand minutes to to intentionally tank. Svi and who?

 

[JazzFever]

Collins, Sexton, and Clarkson were our 2nd, 4th, and 7th highest BPM players last year. Our only remaining player that had a positive BPM last year is Kessler.

Collins is the one we'll miss on that list. Clarkson was 9th according to basketball-reference and I expect organic experience/growth for our guard line to get up where Sexton was.

Cody was the anchor and he'll either improve drastically or his minutes will be taken by others. Isaiah is the other that will improve his plus/minus or lose minutes. If we were lying about losing intentionally, there will be a couple disappointments we can load up minutes with, but I just don't see the organizational stomach for that anymore.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I'd agree if it weren't for the press conference disavowing intentional tanking. Even then I just don't see who you can hand minutes to to intentionally tank. Svi and who?

What do you expect the Jazz to say in their press conference? Each season, even bad teams will say that they're excited about the upcoming season and that they want to be competitive. Then after 15 games or so when it's clear that they're not competitive, they then relax into their tank. The Jazz have explicitly said that they're not going to throw games intentionally, but in reality they've gutted the roster to make sure that they lose.

Giving heavy minutes to Ace, Cody, Flip, Isaiah and Walt will make sure the Jazz are overmatched, simply due to their age.

 

[Basketball Novice]

Collins is the one we'll miss on that list. Clarkson was 9th according to basketball-reference and I expect organic experience/growth for our guard line to get up where Sexton was.

Cody was the anchor and he'll either improve drastically or his minutes will be taken by others. Isaiah is the other that will improve his plus/minus or lose minutes. If we were lying about losing intentionally, there will be a couple disappointments we can load up minutes with, but I just don't see the organizational stomach for that anymore.

Expectations should be reasonable. If Key, Collier, and Brice become impact neutral players; That would be a big step for them. Expecting any more is just setting yourself up for disappointment. Sexton had his deficiencies, but he was also an incredibly efficient offensive guard. It's probably too much to ask Key, Collier, or Brice to be 50/40/90 guards.

 

[JazzFever]

What do you expect the Jazz to say in their press conference? Each season, even bad teams will say that they're excited about the upcoming season and that they want to be competitive. Then after 15 games or so when it's clear that they're not competitive, they then relax into their tank. The Jazz have explicitly said that they're not going to throw games intentionally, but in reality they've gutted the roster to make sure that they lose.

Giving heavy minutes to Ace, Cody, Flip, Isaiah and Walt will make sure the Jazz are overmatched, simply due to their age.

Thing is I wouldn't be surprised if that is just fine- again it isn't like I'm predicting a winning record- but I do predict we have a winning record vs the east and near .500 at home.

We'll be miserable on the road vs the West and out of the playoffs, but we'll definitely NOT have the worst record in the league and maybe not the worst in the West- I could see us edging out one or two of Portland/San Antonio maybe even the Clips if they implode or GS if they get an injury or two.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Collins is the one we'll miss on that list. Clarkson was 9th according to basketball-reference and I expect organic experience/growth for our guard line to get up where Sexton was.

Cody was the anchor and he'll either improve drastically or his minutes will be taken by others. Isaiah is the other that will improve his plus/minus or lose minutes. If we were lying about losing intentionally, there will be a couple disappointments we can load up minutes with, but I just don't see the organizational stomach for that anymore.

I was going off of basketball reference, but didn't include Drew or Oscar because they barely played. It's a good point on hopefully not playing anybody as bad as Cody or Collier were last year, but I think that is the difference between a mid 20s team, not a mid 30s team.

If we win over 30 games it will mean a bunch of unexpected things happened.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Thing is I wouldn't be surprised if that is just fine- again it isn't like I'm predicting a winning record- but I do predict we have a winning record vs the east and near .500 at home.

We'll be miserable on the road vs the West and out of the playoffs, but we'll definitely NOT have the worst record in the league and maybe not the worst in the West- I could see us edging out one or two of Portland/San Antonio maybe even the Clips if they implode or GS if they get an injury or two.

I can't see the Jazz allowing themselves to win more than 20-22 games this year, and it depends upon what Washington and Brooklyn are doing. This is another race to the bottom. Last year, the Jazz guaranteed themselves a top-5 pick. It worked out. They're going to do it again, especially given how strong this next draft is.

 

[fishonjazz]

Here's my super scientific analysis of our win total this year.

- The Jazz won 17 games last year.
- The analytics said we lost about 12 games due to "injury" (sitting players)
- John Collins provided 2.5 win shares, Collin Sexton provided 2.5 win shares, and Jordan Clarkson provided 0.4 win shares
- That would leave us at about 23 wins if we play it straight like Austin Ainge is saying we will.

Then you factor in:
- How much worse will we be with the addition of more rookie minutes by Ace/WCJ?
- How much better does Nurk/Niang/Anderson make us?
- How much internal growth will we get from our rookie contract players?

I think our win total range as is could be 15-30. I also kind of don't believe Austin Ainge will play it straight when it comes down to the end of the season and wins only mean decreased odds. I think we very likely win 20-25 games.

The jazz better not play it straight if it's looking like we are on pace to win 30 games.
Tank note

 

[fishonjazz]

If they do, then it better be because Kessler is shooting corner 3s, Ace is a ROY candidate, WCJ is playing 25 min+, Hendricks is a beast, and Keyonte is north of 58% true shooting. All of that.

This

 

[fishonjazz]

Thing is I wouldn't be surprised if that is just fine- again it isn't like I'm predicting a winning record- but I do predict we have a winning record vs the east and near .500 at home.

We'll be miserable on the road vs the West and out of the playoffs, but we'll definitely NOT have the worst record in the league and maybe not the worst in the West- I could see us edging out one or two of Portland/San Antonio maybe even the Clips if they implode or GS if they get an injury or two.

You 100% better be betting on the over for the jazz win total. And you better be betting BIG.

 

[George W]

*puts on homer goggles*

we are winning 40 games this season.

- George