Jazz4ever
Well-Known Member
Burke is not getting 19 ppg, there is no chance. To my knowledge Lillard is the only rookie PG who has done that in the last decade, but he was 2 years older than Burke coming in and got near 40 minutes a game.
Question about Favors
- Thread starter green
- Start date
Burke is not getting 19 ppg, there is no chance. To my knowledge Lillard is the only rookie PG who has done that in the last decade, but he was 2 years older than Burke coming in and got near 40 minutes a game.
green
Well-Known Member
So, in the NBA, you get between 70-100 shots per game depending on the style of offense you are trying to run. The Jazz say they are going to try to run, and Burke is a pg that fits that. So, you would assume we would have more shots per game. Let's guess 90, a little higher than in the middle.
How do shots distribute? My guess would be this (last year's shots in parenthesis):
Burke - 15 (14) - I say 15. The kid is used to taking a lot of shots, and while he will be looking to pass more, he will get more opportunities for shots with a shorter shot clock
Burks - 8 (6)
Hayward - 14 (11)
Kanter - 12 (5)
Favors - 10 (7)
The starters equal 59 shots. That leaves 31 shots for the bench, which includes:
Biedrens - 4 (1)
Holiday - 4 (5)
Jefferson - 6 (4)
Rush - 8 (4)
Lucas - 5 (5)
That puts us up to 27 shots. That is probably pretty close to what each player takes, especially some of the vets (Lucas for example, took 5 shots last year and has taken 5 shots a year over his career).
Let's put shots with shooting percentages:
Burke - 46% and 38% in college. Those will probably drop a little as he adjusts to the game. 44% and 33%. He took 5 threes a game in college and took a lot of threes in summer league. I'd say he takes 3 three point attempts a game. Most nights, he probably goes 5 for 12. He averaged 4 fta per game in college. I bet that stays pretty consistent. Sooooo, you get 5-12 on twos, 1-3 on threes, and 3-4 on fts or 16 pts a night.
Burks - 8 shots a night, including 1 3pt. 2 fta. At 42% fg, 34% 3pt, and 70% ft, that puts him at 8 pts a game.
Hayward - 14 shots a night, including 4 threes, at 43%, 41%, 82%. That is 20 pts a night. This is a stretch. If Hayward blows up like this...wow.
Favors - 10 shots a night at 47% fg and 70% ft. I think his fg% drops a little from last year. I just don't see a big jump for him skill wise. 5 ft's per game. That gives him 14 pts a night.
Kanter - 12 shots a night at 49% fg and 80% ft. 4 fta's. That is 15 pts a night.
That is 73 pts from the starters (not far off my initial 75 guess). I don't think Hayward gets 20 a night. I don't think he is that aggressive and will lose some efficiency. I see Hayward around 16-17 pts a night. If you take out Burke, that puts the starters around 57 pts a night or 18 pts lower than where you would want them to be. This is why Burke is the key to Utah's season. If he averages 12 pts a night, that our team average is probably around 90 pts a night, it hurts other player's scoring (not having to respect Burke) and we lose a TON of games.
If Burke comes out on fire and get 18, then that puts our scoring around 100, other players are more efficient, and with our defense, we are probably a playoff team. It all comes down to Burke.
Also, I have been a big our bench sucks, but I don't know if it will be quite as bad as I thought. Jefferson is the key to our bench. If he can get back to 10 shots with 45%, then our bench is pretty good with Rush there as well.
How do shots distribute? My guess would be this (last year's shots in parenthesis):
Burke - 15 (14) - I say 15. The kid is used to taking a lot of shots, and while he will be looking to pass more, he will get more opportunities for shots with a shorter shot clock
Burks - 8 (6)
Hayward - 14 (11)
Kanter - 12 (5)
Favors - 10 (7)
The starters equal 59 shots. That leaves 31 shots for the bench, which includes:
Biedrens - 4 (1)
Holiday - 4 (5)
Jefferson - 6 (4)
Rush - 8 (4)
Lucas - 5 (5)
That puts us up to 27 shots. That is probably pretty close to what each player takes, especially some of the vets (Lucas for example, took 5 shots last year and has taken 5 shots a year over his career).
Let's put shots with shooting percentages:
Burke - 46% and 38% in college. Those will probably drop a little as he adjusts to the game. 44% and 33%. He took 5 threes a game in college and took a lot of threes in summer league. I'd say he takes 3 three point attempts a game. Most nights, he probably goes 5 for 12. He averaged 4 fta per game in college. I bet that stays pretty consistent. Sooooo, you get 5-12 on twos, 1-3 on threes, and 3-4 on fts or 16 pts a night.
Burks - 8 shots a night, including 1 3pt. 2 fta. At 42% fg, 34% 3pt, and 70% ft, that puts him at 8 pts a game.
Hayward - 14 shots a night, including 4 threes, at 43%, 41%, 82%. That is 20 pts a night. This is a stretch. If Hayward blows up like this...wow.
Favors - 10 shots a night at 47% fg and 70% ft. I think his fg% drops a little from last year. I just don't see a big jump for him skill wise. 5 ft's per game. That gives him 14 pts a night.
Kanter - 12 shots a night at 49% fg and 80% ft. 4 fta's. That is 15 pts a night.
That is 73 pts from the starters (not far off my initial 75 guess). I don't think Hayward gets 20 a night. I don't think he is that aggressive and will lose some efficiency. I see Hayward around 16-17 pts a night. If you take out Burke, that puts the starters around 57 pts a night or 18 pts lower than where you would want them to be. This is why Burke is the key to Utah's season. If he averages 12 pts a night, that our team average is probably around 90 pts a night, it hurts other player's scoring (not having to respect Burke) and we lose a TON of games.
If Burke comes out on fire and get 18, then that puts our scoring around 100, other players are more efficient, and with our defense, we are probably a playoff team. It all comes down to Burke.
Also, I have been a big our bench sucks, but I don't know if it will be quite as bad as I thought. Jefferson is the key to our bench. If he can get back to 10 shots with 45%, then our bench is pretty good with Rush there as well.
Karadrys30
Well-Known Member
What happens if Trey gets 12pts and 9 assists? Liked your analysis by the way. Just want to change the factors and see what that does to your projected outcome.
I ask this because I don't see this team being a typical "contender". If they want to be in contention they will have to be a hydra on both ends of the court. We don't have a player that we can say "go get us 23 pts". But if everyone is a legit threat then it takes the pressure off one player and spreads it to the team.
b_line
Well-Known Member
19 and 6 would be better than Derrick Rose as a rookie. Rose averaged like 16 and 6. Maybe we should temper our expectations a bit? I think Burke is going to be good, but I think if he averages like 12 and 6, I would call that a great campaign as a rookie, and hopefully he will top out around 9 assists and 16-18 points a game someday.
green
Well-Known Member
Wow. 9 assists. That would be unreal. I think the only way he averages that is if Favors turns into a runner ala Malone and a beast on the P&R. I think in order for Burke to get 9 assists a game, Favors is getting 6 pts off fast breaks and Favors scoring goes up and hits right around 20 a night.
I just don't know if Favors/Kanter are good enough in the P&R and running the floor to give Burke the opportunity to average those type of assist numbers. Or if Burke is enough of a pass first guy. If he averages 12 and 9, we found a gem.
green
Well-Known Member
Again, I didn't place expectations. I'd be fine with 12 and 6. All I said was, in order for us think playoffs, Burke has to average a lot closer to 20 a night than 10. If Burke averages 12 and 6 I'd be very, very happy with those assist numbers (because I don't think he will get that many) and we would have a top 3 pick. Either way win, win.
The Jazz can't lose this year...unless they end up in the 9-11 range in the West. If they make the playoffs, great, they already have their pieces. If they get a top 3 pick, great, they get a chance at that guy.
My whole point was, the wins and losses of this team are probably more contingent on Burke than any other player. He could make us a playoff team or a high lottery team.
b_line
Well-Known Member
oh, ok. That totally makes sense. I didn't realize that you were saying if we wanted to be a playoff team this year. Burke at 19 and 6 would be epic though, even if we didnt make the playoffs.
green
Well-Known Member
Completely agree. If Burke does 19 and 6, whoa. Grand Slam. Deron who? lol.
Hotdog
Well-Known Member
I would bet money that Burke gets no where near 19 a game. I think his first year he will be closer to 10 a game.
What Burke and any other point guard should do when they first come in is see how many assists they can average. I'd love to see 5 ppg and 12 apg rather than 19 & 6. I don't get players these days. Has no one told them that assists get you paid too?
What Burke and any other point guard should do when they first come in is see how many assists they can average. I'd love to see 5 ppg and 12 apg rather than 19 & 6. I don't get players these days. Has no one told them that assists get you paid too?
*mind blown
