Any specifics on what the bold winning policy agenda should have looked like in your opinion?
Yes Safetydan, what is does your bold winning policy agenda look like? If it makes it easier, I’ll go first.
Kamala’s bold winning policy agenda looks like exactly what she did. Kamala has run a perfect campaign and is going to be the next US President. Even with Kamala’s collapse in the polls, I give Trump no better than 1-in-5 odds of winning the election.
Kamala’s policy positions could not be anything other than what they were due to needing more than $1 billion dollars to run the campaign. That kind of money doesn’t come without strings. If Kamala had demanded M4A or any other progressive idiocy, the big corporate interests would have chosen a different Democrat to win the 2024 election.
As for the campaign, the things that don’t appear to make sense are only because almost nobody understands the election was won earlier this year. Most of the states are so lopsided in their voting habits that they are considered “safe”. There are only seven swing states. They are: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Four of those are too small to actually swing the election. Only three states actually matter. They are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
For Trump to win, he only needs to win one of the states that matter. Kamala needs to win all three. There is a fourth state that has a wildcard, which I will also detail, but that state’s wildcard has been locked up.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is built perfectly for ballot harvesting to be most effective, and they passed Act 77 which put it in place. The Republicans did manage to get it thrown out, but the Democrats appealed all the way to the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court last year and won. Act 77 is the law of the land there and the ground game Pennsylvania Democrats have built around it is on point. Pennsylvania is locked up safe for the Democrats.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin also passed a version of their ballot harvesting law. Republican got it thrown out in 2022, but Democrats appealed all the way to the Wisconsin State Supreme Court, and in July of this year they managed to get it reinstated. Because Wisconsin is more rural, harvesting isn’t as effective as it is in Pennsylvania but it is still enough to likely win. Democrats are heavily advantaged but not guaranteed Wisconsin, which is why Kamala’s campaign blew off the Al Smith dinner in NYC to hold a rally in Wisconsin. She took flak but it was the correct move.
Michigan
Ballot harvesting is actually illegal in Michigan. The problem is that ballot harvesting happens a lot in Michigan and is never prosecuted. Democrat Governor Gretchen Witmer seems to have no problem looking the other way in the effort to see Democrats hold on to power. It is corrupt, but corruption is how Michigan does business. That gives the Democrats an advantage but they do have to win, so we see Kamala campaigning with Eminem and Lizzo. If Kamala isn’t in Wisconsin, she’s in Michigan.
The Big Picture
If Trump wins all of the safe Republican states, and all of the swing states except for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, he loses the election 268 to 270. Trump can’t win Pennsylvania which means the election is about Wisconsin and Michigan. Nothing else matters. Kamala doesn’t have to appeal to anyone other than Wisconsin and Michigan where she has a structural tailwind. Trump has run a strong campaign and he’s going to lose.
The Nebraska Wildcard
Nebraska is one of the few states that is not winner-take-all. Nebraska is a Republican dominated state but Omaha votes Democrat. Nebraska reliably give 3 electoral votes to Republicans and 1 vote to Democrats. If Nebraska were to change that policy to make Nebraska winner-take-all, then it would take 1 vote away from Kamala and give it to Trump. That change would be enough to make this election a 269 to 269 tie, which would make the US House of Representatives the tiebreaker where Speaker Mike Johnson would give the election win to Trump.
This change to Nebraska election law was stopped by three Republican State Senators. In our nation consisting of several hundred million people, the 2024 Presidential election was decided in favor of Kamala Harris by three people in Republican Nebraska.
Nebraska State Sen. Mike McDonnell told ABC News Prime anchor Linsey Davis that the push to change the state’s electoral college allocation “did not seem fair.”
abcnews.go.com