ESPN Draft Ranking By WARP

[A-Train (old)]

This is what Kevin Pelton does to accumulate a players WARP rating:

I start by translating a player's college statistics to their NBA equivalents. That produces a per-minute rating, player win% (equivalent to PER), that projects how we can expect rookies to perform in the NBA next season. By adding age, I come up with a projection of how many Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), on average, prospects will produce over their first five years -- the amount of time teams control a first-round pick between the four-year rookie contract and one year as a restricted free agent.

There are some pretty interesting rankings:

6. Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil

WARP rating: 2.4

For European players who played in the Spanish ACB, the best domestic league, or the continental Euroleague and EuroCup competitions, the translation process is the same except it involves players going both to and from the NBA. "Bebe" put up solid stats playing against grown-ups in the ACB. He blocked shots more frequently than Serge Ibaka did in the same league and projects to make nearly 55 percent of his 2-point shots.

12 (tie). Shane Larkin, PG, Miami

WARP rating: 1.6

In almost every respect, Larkin is statistically a lesser version of Burke. He is ahead in terms of steal rate, one of his greatest strengths as a prospect.

20. Isaiah Canaan, PG, Murray State

WARP rating: 0.8

Canaan rated much better as a junior than during his senior year, when he took on a larger role offensively. But playing with more talented teammates in the pros may help him get back to that level. Canaan's translated 41.6 percent 2-point shooting is worrisome.

27. Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA

WARP rating: -0.7

Since I covered Muhammad's weaknesses during the season, his projection has only gotten worse. Now, Muhammad and Plumlee are the lone top-30 players projected to rate worse than a replacement-level player -- the type of free agent available for the minimum. Among past players with sub-replacement projections, about 1/6 have ended up actually performing better than replacement in the NBA.

NO PROJECTIONS: Adetokunbo, Schroeder and Ledo
There are three top-30 players without statistical projections. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Dennis Schroeder played only in domestic leagues that rarely send players to the NBA, while Ricardo Ledo spent his only season at Providence ineligible and thus has no NCAA stats.

 

[Jazz4ever]

Bazz just can't get a break.

 

[spycam1]

Bazz just can't get a break.

Whatever helps him fall to the Jazz is fine by me.

 

[UGLI baby]

 

[Deleted member 848]

Level 4 is the whey to go. There's a warp zone there as well, which takes you to level 8


/memories