How Fast a Disease Can Spread In Modern Times

[Stoked]

https://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/05/12/cdc-announces-second-case-mers-virus-in-us/

Yes yes it's Fox News. Get over it ya tree huggers.


Basically this guy got on 4 planes while sick.

From Jeddah to London
London to Boston
Boston to Atlanta
Atlanta to Orlando

He had Mers and is quarantined. Around 500 people that traveled with him have been contacted by the CDC.

Just makes you wonder how bad it would be if he had an even more deadly and communicable disease. just like that the middle east, England and the West coast are toast.

Anyone know of any studies done on how fast a disease or contagion could spread in todays world?

 

[fishonjazz]

Contagion

 

[Jazz Spazz]

Something airborne would spread almost as fast as an std

 

[8]

Poor Gwyneth Paltrow

 

[Stoked]

Also interesting how a disease seems to hit the healthcare industry especially hard. Would lead one to believe that in a widespread outbreak you'd want to avoid hospitals and those associated with healthcare.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

So if a 747 was on it's way to NYC and someone on the plane had the black plague, would they blow it out of the air before it landed?

 

[Deleted member 848]

Disease is a pretty broad term, but this is definitely an important conversation to have.


As far as I'm aware, most contagious-diseases that result in death are bacteria-related, which is nice because we can develop drugs that specifically target and kill bacteria in our bodies (antibiotics)-- the problem is, our overuse of antibiotics has caused bacteria to 'evolve' (pardon the terminology) to be genetically-Resistant to these drugs; so the onus is on us to be smart about how we use bacteria, or to keep developing new drugs.


Viruses, of course, are a lot harder to develop drugs for. For the most part, all we can do is present something strcturally similar to the current pathogenic virus, and hope our body makes the right antibodies for it.

Transmissability varies from pathogen to pathogen, but let me tell you this: if there is ever a mutation in the current form of Avian flu that changes its glycoprotein affinity from bird to human, we're kinda ****ed. From what I've heard, this mutation wouldn't be a complex set of affairs, and some consider it a ticking time bomb waiting to happen. MERS isn't in the same stratosphere.

 

[Stoked]

So if a 747 was on it's way to NYC and someone on the plane had the black plague, would they blow it out of the air before it landed?

The answers we got from any administration would probably be very scary.

 

[Stoked]

Disease is a pretty broad term, but this is definitely an important conversation to have.


As far as I'm aware, most contagious-diseases that result in death are bacteria-related, which is nice because we can develop drugs that specifically target and kill bacteria in our bodies (antibiotics)-- the problem is, our overuse of antibiotics has caused bacteria to 'evolve' (pardon the terminology) to be genetically-Resistant to these drugs; so the onus is on us to be smart about how we use bacteria, or to keep developing new drugs.


Viruses, of course, are a lot harder to develop drugs for. For the most part, all we can do is present something strcturally similar to the current pathogenic virus, and hope our body makes the right antibodies for it.

Transmissability varies from pathogen to pathogen, but let me tell you this: if there is ever a mutation in the current form of Avian flu that changes its glycoprotein affinity from bird to human, we're kinda ****ed. From what I've heard, this mutation wouldn't be a complex set of affairs, and some consider it a ticking time bomb waiting to happen. MERS isn't in the same stratosphere.

This is what I have heard and read. Also new strains of the "bird flu" continue to develop all the time (from what I understand). Seems only a matter of time before one develops that specializes in human to human transmission. At that point the world at large is in trouble.

 

[Deleted member 848]

So if a 747 was on it's way to NYC and someone on the plane had the black plague, would they blow it out of the air before it landed?

They'd probably get it to fly into a quarantined Hangar, I doubt they'd bring down the plane.

 

[Deleted member 848]

This i what I have heard. Also new strains of the "bird flu" continue to develop all the time. Seems only a matter of time before one develops that specializes in human to human transmission. At that point the world at large is in trouble.

It's mostly because of the lethality of the virus-- I mean usually, viruses don't kill off the host right away. It's in its best interest t keep the host alive for a while, replicate, and then have the host contact other people so it can continue its propogation.


The unqiue problem with Avian Flu is that its mortality rates have been appraised up to 50% of all hosts-- which is insane in the world of virology. Like, think the Spanish Flu (a very dangerous flu in its own right) was around like 2.5% if I'm not mistaken.


Still, that mortality is associated with birds, so that's no direct proof that the mortality would maintain among humans

 

[Stoked]

It's mostly because of the lethality of the virus-- I mean usually, viruses don't kill off the host right away. It's in its best interest to keep the host alive for a while, replicate, and then have the host contact other people so it can continue its propogation.


The unqiue problem with Avian Flu is that its mortality rates have been appraised up to 50% of all hosts-- which is insane in the world of virology. Like, think the Spanish Flu (a very dangerous flu in its own right) was around like 2.5% if I'm not mistaken.


Still, that mortality is associated with birds, so that's no direct proof that the mortality would maintain among humans

That was actually incorporateds in the the movie World War Z and was an interesting concept to me. Can you imagine the breakdown in society from even a mortality rate in the 20% range? People would refuse to go out, kids kept home from school, people from work... Everything would stop moving as the death toll rose.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

They'd probably get it to fly into a quarantined Hangar, I doubt they'd bring down the plane.

I was thinking the same thing, trouble would be finding an isolated place to do something like that.

 

[[size/HUGE] fixed [/size]]

That was actually incorporateds in the the movie World War Z and was an interesting concept to me. Can you imagine the breakdown in society from even a mortality rate in the 20% range? People would refuse to go out, kids kept home from school, people from work... Everything would stop moving as the death toll rose.

If I'm not mistaken, the Black Plague wiped out about 1/3rd of the population around the Mediterranean (I'm not sure of the rates across the silk routes and China, but I think it was similar).

And, yeah, the legacy of the plague is vast. A few cultural critics have astutely pointed out that the event doesn't get enough credit as a force that shaped (and continues to shape) the West. As somebody who looked deeply into the history of Western medicine, I can attest to the plague's deep and continual influence in our lives.

 

[Stoked]

I was thinking the same thing, trouble would be finding an isolated place to do something like that.

I wouldn't think so. They'd have the plane land and park inan empty hanger. They would prevent anyone from leaving ht eplane or even opening the door. Then they would properly quarentine the hanger with airtight suits, seals...

@Fixed Oh yeah it is always about how many died. Not the fear of contracting the disease and the lengths people went to avoid it. How they avoided it and how it broke down the fuctionality of the society.