The two most important factors in rebuilding an NBA franchise is making smart decisions and luck.
The bad decisions are the Favors trade, the Cody pick, not tanking hard enough to get Wemby and not trading Lauri.
The bad luck was not getting higher draft picks in the lottery, Taylor and Walkers injuries, and Cody being a bust.
Seems like the Jazz haven't been lucky nor have they made the best decisions.
Since we probably won't get our pick, I think the Jazz need to go for it and build instead of tank and hope for better luck.
The odds were always against us landing Wembanyama. Even if we had tanked harder, the most likely outcome is that we still wouldn’t have won the lottery. There is no credible “if we’d only tanked harder, we’d have Wemby” argument, and it’s time to stop pretending otherwise.
More to the point, aside from
maybe Amen Thompson—and even that’s debatable—who among the players drafted ahead of Taylor Hendricks in 2023 is the transformative star we supposedly missed? Scoot Henderson? Brandon Miller? Ausar Thompson? Anthony Black? Bilal Coulibaly? Jarace Walker? It is entirely plausible that we ended up with the second-best player in that draft at #16. Had we tanked harder, there is no guarantee we’d be better off, and several very plausible scenarios in which we’d be worse.
The “just tank more” argument also assumes that whatever assets we could have extracted for Lauri would be similarly transformative. That assumption ignores recent history. We already acquired a mountain of assets for Mitchell and Gobert, and most of those have either been flipped, project as role players at best, or are now routinely dismissed by fans as insufficient—prompting calls to dump
them for yet more speculative future assets. It’s an infinite regress.
At this point, everyone—the front office, the players, and the fans—is exhausted by the tank. Unfortunately, the short-sighted decision to trade Favors has locked us into one more year of it, which may be too difficult to execute anyway, given how many teams either genuinely stink or have little incentive to win.
The league office, by all accounts, is also fed up and is exploring ways to discourage tanking further. I hope it acts decisively. Tanking is corrosive to the league, alienating to fans, and ultimately self-defeating for too many teams. Rooting for your own team to lose year after year drains the joy out of the sport. It’s bad basketball, bad entertainment, and it needs to end.