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Kevin Pelton: Evaluating each NBA team's draft-and-stash talent

stitches

stitches

Well-Known Member
2023 Prediction Contest Winner
Pelton did a projection of all stashed players in the NBA and it can be found here:
https://insider.espn.go.com/nba/dra...-draft-evaluating-nba-team-draft-stash-talent

The relevant parts for Utah:

To evaluate the talent that might be headed to the NBA in the future, I used translated stats from the D-League, Euroleague, EuroCup, Adriatic League, Spanish ACB, French Pro A to project most players whose rights are held by teams. (A handful have not played in any of these leagues within the past three years.) Based on how stats have translated from these leagues to the NBA in the past, we can get a general sense of their value. These projections are expressed in my per-minute win percentage, where .500 is an average player and .410 is approximately replacement level -- the minimum threshold needed to add value to an NBA roster.
Click to expand...
Utah Jazz

Player-------Yr------Pk---Age---Win%
Ante Tomic-2008---44---28.3---0.494
Tibor Pleiss-2010---31---25.6---0.453
Raul Neto ---2013---47---23.1---0.430
Mario Austin-2003---36---33.3---N/A

After acquiring Tibor Pleiss' rights in the Enes Kanter trade at the deadline, the Jazz now owns the rights to both of FC Barcelona's centers. Utah has been trying to bring over starter Ante Tomic since drafting him in 2008. One of the top players in Europe, Tomic reportedly agreed to a new deal with Barcelona in April. Backup Pleiss could be a more realistic, if modest, target. He projects as a good rebounder and high-percentage finisher, though foul-prone and not capable of creating his own offense. The Jazz also drafted point guard Raul "Raulzinho" Neto in the second round of the 2013 draft. Neto hasn't developed as much since then as Utah might have hoped, but he could eventually be a backup point guard.
Click to expand...

In other words, if Tomic was to come over he'd be about average player for the league, Pleiss would be above replacement level, but below average, and Neto would be slightly above replacement level. The players in his database that rank highest from all teams are - Walter Tavares - 0.518, Marko Todorovic - 0.526, Sergio Llull - 0.504, Nemanja Bjelica - 0.514...
 
stitches said:
Pelton did a projection of all stashed players in the NBA and it can be found here:
https://insider.espn.go.com/nba/dra...-draft-evaluating-nba-team-draft-stash-talent

The relevant parts for Utah:




In other words, if Tomic was to come over he'd be about average player for the league, Pleiss would be above replacement level, but below average, and Neto would be slightly above replacement level. The players in his database that rank highest from all teams are - Walter Tavares - 0.518, Marko Todorovic - 0.526, Sergio Llull - 0.504, Nemanja Bjelica - 0.514...
Click to expand...

Sounds about right to me.
 
I'm not going to run stats to make my point, but it seems to me we have much better odds of finding a rotation player in the 2nd round by drafting a player who will show up to training camp than by using the draft pick to stash a foreign player. Not because the foreign player isn't good, but because our chance of him wearing a Jazz uniform are next to nil.
 
Most draft and stash guys (outside of 1st round picks or very early 2nd round picks) do not ever come to the NBA. I'm totally fine with using late 2nd on guys simply because those picks are just about worthless. Higher picks need to be used on guys you KNOW are coming over right away. Hernangomez, Jaiteh and Osman are the 3 guys that I'd be happy with if the Jazz go that route in the 2nd.
 
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