Plans for settling on Mars and making it a reality tv show?

[Stoked]

I wonder if they would send a team on a one way trip or find a way to return them. I can't imagine being one of those people sent there. It would be exciting, but scary as hell too.

Initially it will be one way trips. Then a permanent prescense will be establised. We to mush materials are needed for the first time landing to be a one way mission.

The onyl way around that would be to have multiple spaceships enroute to Mars before the first one ever reached there. With air, water, materials...I think they will send military types personally. Career men/women that have not had the time or desire for a family.

 

[Siro]

I'm willing to bet that no manned missions to Mars happen anytime in the next 50 years. And I'm techno-optimist almost to the point of being religious. The moon landings had decades of momentum behind them. Those capabilities were lost, and any new moon missions would need another round of R&D. And that's the moon. I would be surprised if such massive amounts of money, time, and effort are dumped into a manned mission to Mars, since it is only of symbolic value. And I personally have no problem letting robots do the exploring for the time being.

As for the Mars trilogy, I never really enjoyed them. I love how elaborate the technical details are. The author spends page after page describing the workings of the terraforming machines, the materials used in constructing the habitats, the recycling systems, and so on. But, the novels have A LOT of politics in them. And the politics are incredibly cynical. It takes place decades in the future, but the social dynamics are very backward. A good chunk of the books are about political maneuvers, sabotage, and betrayals of the factions trying to take control of the ethnically divided Martian colonies. The outlook becomes more positive and enjoyable as the series progressed, but I'm not sure it's totally worth it since the books are quite long.

 

[Former Member]

I am enjoying this thread. I'm a huge science fiction buff.

 

[Stoked]

I'm willing to bet that no manned missions to Mars happen anytime in the next 50 years. And I'm techno-optimist almost to the point of being religious. The moon landings had decades of momentum behind them. Those capabilities were lost, and any new moon missions would need another round of R&D. And that's the moon. I would be surprised if such massive amounts of money, time, and effort are dumped into a manned mission to Mars, since it is only of symbolic value. And I personally have to problem letting robots do the exploring for the time being.

As for the Mars trilogy, I never really enjoyed them. I love how elaborate the technical details are. The author spends page after page describing the workings of the terraforming machines, the materials used in constructing the habitats, the recycling systems, and so on. But, the novels have A LOT of politics in them. And the politics are incredibly cynical. It takes place decades in the future, but the social dynamics are very backward. A good chunk of the books are about political maneuvers, sabotage, and betrayals of the factions trying to take control of the ethnically divided Martian colonies. The outlook becomes more positive and enjoyable as the series progressed, but I'm not sure it's totally worth it since the books are quite long.

I do not see the government making that big of a push unless another space race with China happens which i doubt. I think the push will come from private entities. The push is already starting.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

This would be awesome but I propose it air on a 24 hour a day cable channel. It would be like The Truman Show, only it wouldn't be. I'd be glued, waiting like someone already said, for someone to snap, for someone to forget to suit up properly and implode, for someone to bang their way into an immediate divorce. This is awesome!

 

[Siro]

I do not see the government making that big of a push unless another space race with China happens which i doubt. I think the push will come from private entities. The push is already starting.

Private companies are going to invest tens of billions of dollars for no reason? I think something like asteroid mining is much more likely since the massive investments can have reasonable returns within 10-15 years. Even that I'm not totally bought on. I think it's a wonderful idea that NEEDS to happen. But courageous companies who are willing to take a big risk are a rarity these days. Google was criticized for "losing focus" by almost every business analyst because they're investing in the Google Glass project. If a computer company investing in computer innovations is now considered too risky, who the hell is going to risk incurring the wrath of the worthless middlemen who now control the world? I don't see it happening.

 

[Stoked]

Private companies are going to invest tens of billions of dollars for no reason? I think something like asteroid mining is much more likely since the massive investments can have reasonable returns within 10-15 years. Even that I'm not totally bought on. I think it's a wonderful idea that NEEDS to happen. But courageous companies who are willing to take a big risk are a rarity these days. Google was criticized for "losing focus" by almost every business analyst because they're investing in the Google Glass project. If a computer company investing in computer innovations is now considered too risky, who the hell is going to risk incurring the wrath of the worthless middlemen who now control the world? I don't see it happening.

They can help fund it by offering pricey rides for passengers into low orbit, offer adverstising space on the vehicles, offer to take refueling/supply runs to the space station for various countries, offer to send satellites into space for countries.

There are a myraid of ways to secure broad based funding.

 

[Siro]

They can help fund it by offering pricey rides for passengers into low orbit, offer adverstising space on the vehicles, offer to take refueling/supply runs to the space station for various countries, offer to send satellites into space for countries.

There are a myraid of ways to secure broad based funding.

None of those really work. Suborbital flights are a nice gimmick, but they're insanely expensive. How many people will be willing to pay 200k for a novelty? A few, I'm sure, but not enough to grow the industry to the level required to make Mars missions a plausible investment within the next 25 years. Offering services to larger institutions might keep them afloat, but you're underestimating the magnitude of such an undertaking. Even if we start developing the required technology today, I doubt we'd be ready in 25 years.

Advertising space? For the 4 people on the shuttle? What is that going to cover? Sending satellites can be done inexpensively from earth, so that makes little sense.

I think that eventually, advanced propulsion techniques will become cheap enough to attempt such a mission (in addition to other technologies, like radiation shielding), but it won't be any time soon. It is possible that a bunch of governments and companies will team up for a one off mission simply to prove it's possible. But for a program to be flexible enough to enable permanent presence on Mars? Not any time soon.

Once we know how to fabricate the bulk of a spacecraft in space, develop easier ways to get to orbit (space elevator for example), and build capabilities for launching the vehicles from space (electromagnetic rails for example), then trips to Mars would no longer be much of a challenge. But I'd give it 60-80 years.

 

[Stoked]

None of those really work. Suborbital flights are a nice gimmick, but they're insanely expensive. How many people will be willing to pay 200k for a novelty? A few, I'm sure, but not enough to grow the industry to the level required to make Mars missions a plausible investment within the next 25 years. Offering services to larger institutions might keep them afloat, but you're underestimating the magnitude of such an undertaking. Even if we start developing the required technology today, I doubt we'd be ready in 25 years.

Advertising space? For the 4 people on the shuttle? What is that going to cover? Sending satellites can be done inexpensively from earth, so that makes little sense.

I think that eventually, advanced propulsion techniques will become cheap enough to attempt such a mission (in addition to other technologies, like radiation shielding), but it won't be any time soon. It is possible that a bunch of governments and companies will team up for a one off mission simply to prove it's possible. But for a program to be flexible enough to enable permanent presence on Mars? Not any time soon.

Once we know how to fabricate the bulk of a spacecraft in space, develop easier ways to get to orbit (space elevator for example), and build capabilities for launching the vehicles from space (electromagnetic rails for example), then trips to Mars would no longer be much of a challenge. But I'd give it 60-80 years.

They can take up more then one person at once. Perhaps 3-4 people at once for say 125k a pop. Increases the pool of potential clients and increases the revenue from each trip.

I probably am over estimating everything. I just see allt his stuff like Mars, AIDS, hunger, third world countries...and I cannot help but think how all that would be solved if humanity would get out of its own way. Humanity is it's own worst enemy. There is nothing we could not do if we got out of our own way. Unfortunately it will never be that way.

 

[Siro]

They can take up more then one person at once. Perhaps 3-4 people at once for say 125k a pop. Increases the pool of potential clients and increases the revenue from each trip.

I probably am over estimating everything. I just see allt his stuff like Mars, AIDS, hunger, third world countries...and I cannot help but think how all that would be solved if humanity would get out of its own way. Humanity is it's own worst enemy. There is nothing we could not do if we got out of our own way. Unfortunately it will never be that way.

Oh, I agree with you. I think all of those are solvable within our life time (with the possible exception of Mars). AIDS is becoming less and less of an issue every day in the developed world. They even have ways to cure it nowadays, but the procedure is extremely risk.

https://www.npr.org/blogs/health/20...ure-after-bone-marrow-transplants-doctors-say

Other cures should start to emerge before the end of the decade. Even without a cure, AIDS is pretty manageable now. I doubt many people who contract AIDS today will actually die from it.

https://www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/Press_Releases_PR-1535.pdf

Hunger is solvable with current technologies. This is another area where companies have a profitable model that they don't want to risk disrupting. In reality, we can produce VASTLY more food with a lot less land. Hydroponics are about a century overdue. Back in the 30s and 40s, everyone was talking about the future of hydroponics. But the whole field was pretty much abandoned following WWII. Nowadays, we have even more efficient techniques, like Aeroponics. Right now, aeroponic vertical farms can be built instead of the current model that consumes half of the planet's surface area. But it needs some altruistic intervention to subsidize it and finance it. These things are why I'm very skeptical of "free market always knows best" mentality that many on these forums seem to have. We need a better collaborative system between public and private interests.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroponics

 

[Stoked]

Oh, I agree with you. I think all of those are solvable within our life time (with the possible exception of Mars). AIDS is becoming less and less of an issue every day in the developed world. They even have ways to cure it nowadays, but the procedure is extremely risk.

https://www.npr.org/blogs/health/20...ure-after-bone-marrow-transplants-doctors-say

Other cures should start to emerge before the end of the decade. Even without a cure, AIDS is pretty manageable now. I doubt many people who contract AIDS today will actually die from it.

https://www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/Press_Releases_PR-1535.pdf

Hunger is solvable with current technologies. This is another area where companies have a profitable model that they don't want to risk disrupting. In reality, we can produce VASTLY more food with a lot less land. Hydroponics are about a century overdue. Back in the 30s and 40s, everyone was talking about the future of hydroponics. But the whole field was pretty much abandoned following WWII. Nowadays, we have even more efficient techniques, like Aeroponics. Right now, aeroponic vertical farms can be built instead of the current model that consumes half of the planet's surface area. But it needs some altruistic intervention to subsidize it and finance it. These things are why I'm very skeptical of "free market always knows best" mentality that many on these forums seem to have. We need a better collaborative system between public and private interests.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroponics

I agree on those points. But how much is that being sread throughout the world. We have the capability now of ending hunger, many diseases, undeveloped populaces (education, running water, electricity...) but for stupid reasons it cannot happen.

 

[Stoked]

I mean just thinka bout it. There are over 7 billion humans. Jus think of all the money, lives and other resources that have been spent in all the wars on earth. The money is a figure that is so far beyond what I can even imagine. Take all that time, money, lives, resources and put it under smart leadership into scientific advances. Renewable energy, space flight, cures for cancer...done.

So sad to know it is our own fault.

 

[Siro]

I mean just thinka bout it. There are over 7 billion humans. Jus think of all the money, lives and other resources that have been spent in all the wars on earth. The money is a figure that is so far beyond what I can even imagine. Take all that time, money, lives, resources and put it under smart leadership into scientific advances. Renewable energy, space flight, cures for cancer...done.

So sad to know it is our own fault.

The U.S. is pretty much the only developed country that still engages in wars. And even then, it's always against non-democratic, relatively weak, opponents with every effort to minimize collateral damage. The Europeans, who've had the bloodiest history of any civilization, has turned pacifist overnight. It's hard to believe that today's Scandinavians are the descendants of the Vikings! The situation SHOULD continue to improve, as the world continues to liberalize (in the classic sense).

We (humanity) have been through a lot. Wars and plagues and natural disasters, and even the threat of nuclear annihilation. And we survived it all. Things will never be perfect, but once the masses took the world from the aristocrats, after the industrial revolution, we've set up a system of continuing betterment. There will always be opponents to progress. Some will use whatever means necessary to prevent change. But I think we've seen what the light knowledge brings, and there is no turning back.

Like you guys always try to tell me, have faith!

 

[Stoked]

The U.S. is pretty much the only developed country that still engages in wars. And even then, it's always against non-democratic, relatively weak, opponents with every effort to minimize collateral damage. The Europeans, who've had the bloodiest history of any civilization, has turned pacifist overnight. It's hard to believe that today's Scandinavians are the descendants of the Vikings! The situation SHOULD continue to improve, as the world continues to liberalize (in the classic sense).

We (humanity) have been through a lot. Wars and plagues and natural disasters, and even the threat of nuclear annihilation. And we survived it all. Things will never be perfect, but once the masses took the world from the aristocrats, after the industrial revolution, we've set up a system of continuing betterment. There will always be opponents to progress. Some will use whatever means necessary to prevent change. But I think we've seen what the light knowledge brings, and there is no turning back.

Like you guys always try to tell me, have faith!

I have faith things will continue to improve. I do not have faith that humanity will get out of its own way. That is against our very nature. humans are tribal/clannish by nature. We see it on a global scale with countries but even to a smaller extent with states, districts...It is just in our DNA to seperate and compete.