Real Estate MAGA Chuds! Make this math math

[BabyPeterzz]

Where my real estate MAGA chuds at? I’m no expert here but….

Im really interested to see how the countries commercial real estate market, specifically office, will be impacted in the next few years. Especially with what Trump has mentioned in his “plans”.

We’re still seeing record high vacancies in office since COVID, with sub-leasing holding things together. But with 5-10 year leases signed before and around 2020 coming up for renewal, work from home saving many industries money, and employees demanding flexibility I see a lot more office space going vacant. Even with all the tech bros committing to bringing people back to work, this will naturally thin out their workforces of expensive employees and replaced with cheaper HB1 employees. Still less workers, less office space needed.

Same with the feds. They are bringing people back to the office. But with DOGE cutting federal employees, especially from the IRS, the feds will also need less space. Trump has mentioned cutting the GSA and selling off federal office properties (millions of square feet, billions in value) to help pay for tariffs, trade wars, and eliminating income tax.

This creates an even bigger supply of office space with less demand. Driving down prices and increasing vacancies making it harder for owners to cover costs, service debt, pay taxes, etc. This is a bubble well known for years now.

I see this making a post pandemic problem worse and would have wide ranging impacts to economic centers in red and blue states.

What am I missing?


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[Al-O-Meter]

What am I missing?

You're missing that this is America, not Europe. We bulldoze old structures all the time to build something new. There was an old office building not far from where I live that had been mostly vacant for better part of three decades. Some developer bought it, tore it down, built a shopping center with some apartment buildings, and now the place is bustling. There is nothing wrong with new, and there is nothing sacred about old commercial structures from the mid-1970's filled with outdated plumbing, electrical, HVAC, insulation, etc. If what is there currently isn't meeting current needs, then build something new that does meet current needs.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

"I went down to my old neighborhood. The faces have all changed, there's no one there left to talk to, and the pool hall I loved as a kid is now a 7-Eleven"

 

[fishonjazz]

Where my real estate MAGA chuds at? I’m no expert here but….

Im really interested to see how the countries commercial real estate market, specifically office, will be impacted in the next few years. Especially with what Trump has mentioned in his “plans”.

We’re still seeing record high vacancies in office since COVID, with sub-leasing holding things together. But with 5-10 year leases signed before and around 2020 coming up for renewal, work from home saving many industries money, and employees demanding flexibility I see a lot more office space going vacant. Even with all the tech bros committing to bringing people back to work, this will naturally thin out their workforces of expensive employees and replaced with cheaper HB1 employees. Still less workers, less office space needed.

Same with the feds. They are bringing people back to the office. But with DOGE cutting federal employees, especially from the IRS, the feds will also need less space. Trump has mentioned cutting the GSA and selling off federal office properties (millions of square feet, billions in value) to help pay for tariffs, trade wars, and eliminating income tax.

This creates an even bigger supply of office space with less demand. Driving down prices and increasing vacancies making it harder for owners to cover costs, service debt, pay taxes, etc. This is a bubble well known for years now.

I see this making a post pandemic problem worse and would have wide ranging impacts to economic centers in red and blue states.

What am I missing?


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What are you missing? Well that's easy. You are missing blind faith and trust in orange god king.

 

[BabyPeterzz]

You're missing that this is America, not Europe. We bulldoze old structures all the time to build something new. There was an old office building not far from where I live that had been mostly vacant for better part of three decades. Some developer bought it, tore it down, built a shopping center with some apartment buildings, and now the place is bustling. There is nothing wrong with new, and there is nothing sacred about old commercial structures from the mid-1970's filled with outdated plumbing, electrical, HVAC, insulation, etc. If what is there currently isn't meeting current needs, then build something new that does meet current needs.

Easier said than done. The GSA manages a huge portfolio. Yes, I’m sure it’s lots of old buildings from the 70’s, and it does open the door for redevelopment. But those opportunities are very expensive and technical, whether a demo and new build or infill. Redevelopment takes time, decades in cases. And with new tariffs and deportations impacting construction, I don’t see an already struggling downtown or Main St. recovering anytime soon.

Our infrastructure and cities are already outdated and inefficient. The world, specifically China, has lapped us in creating strong economic centers for the future.

Rural America is going to be bummed when their cities cant subsidize their very expensive infrastructure, utilities, and services. They’ll finally learn what it means to actually pay for what they use instead asking for freebies and handouts.


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[BabyPeterzz]

"I went down to my old neighborhood. The faces have all changed, there's no one there left to talk to, and the pool hall I loved as a kid is now a 7-Eleven"

Ahhh ah ah. Social D’s bass player is from Provo, I believe. They came up playing the Speedway Cafe in the 80s.

I think this one fits better:


View: https://youtu.be/aXAU4MmMIMo?si=7mGXWhJV7Qi1CUzO



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[Sardines]

Sorry bro, the math ain't mathing

 

[Sardines]

And you're talking about office space. Retail space, especially malls, is not needed in the quantities that currently exist.

So what? We bulldoze every third mall and the cities they are in lose that tax revenue? Converting a mall to affordable housing, which we desperately need, will be met with resistance by nearby homeowners who don't want to lose precious property value due to low class multi-unit housing developments.

Suits will be filed. Money will be spent needlessly. Delays will destroy many developments.

I'm sure the tech bros will get it figured out since they care so much about regular people just working their full time jobs to make ends meet.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I don't know if this is relevant, but when I was in China earlier this year they explained to me how they build huge high rises all over the big cities that are never occupied. They don't have any need for them. The government funds them just to give people work.

 

[BabyPeterzz]

And you're talking about office space. Retail space, especially malls, is not needed in the quantities that currently exist.

So what? We bulldoze every third mall and the cities they are in lose that tax revenue? Converting a mall to affordable housing, which we desperately need, will be met with resistance by nearby homeowners who don't want to lose precious property value due to low class multi-unit housing developments.

Suits will be filed. Money will be spent needlessly. Delays will destroy many developments.

I'm sure the tech bros will get it figured out since they care so much about regular people just working their full time jobs to make ends meet.

Spot on. Just look at our local tech chud Ryan Smith. He bought South Town to redevelop into the NHL training facility for the next team he’s going to ruin. I can only imagine what he’s going to do to our downtown.


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[BabyPeterzz]

I don't know if this is relevant, but when I was in China earlier this year they explained to me how they build huge high rises all over the big cities that are never occupied. They don't have any need for them. The government funds them just to give people work.

Would not surprise me. They have a similar re bubble to deal with.


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[LogGrad98]

And you're talking about office space. Retail space, especially malls, is not needed in the quantities that currently exist.

So what? We bulldoze every third mall and the cities they are in lose that tax revenue? Converting a mall to affordable housing, which we desperately need, will be met with resistance by nearby homeowners who don't want to lose precious property value due to low class multi-unit housing developments.

Suits will be filed. Money will be spent needlessly. Delays will destroy many developments.

I'm sure the tech bros will get it figured out since they care so much about regular people just working their full time jobs to make ends meet.

Well I can assure you that the broligarchy will find a way to monetize it.

 

[LogGrad98]

Spot on. Just look at our local tech chud Ryan Smith. He bought South Town to redevelop into the NHL training facility for the next team he’s going to ruin. I can only imagine what he’s going to do to our downtown.


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Look on the bright side, at least our taxes will subsidize it for him so he doesn't have to risk actually spending any billions in the deal.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

I’m sure it’s lots of old buildings from the 70’s, and it does open the door for redevelopment. But those opportunities are very expensive and technical, whether a demo and new build or infill. Redevelopment takes time, decades in cases.

It certainly can take decades, but that is almost always a function of how restrictive government decides to be. If the state and local governments work with developers, or even if they just get out of the way, I've seen revitalizing gentrification happen in the blink of an eye.

 

[Rubashov]

Where my real estate MAGA chuds at? I’m no expert here but….

Im really interested to see how the countries commercial real estate market, specifically office, will be impacted in the next few years. Especially with what Trump has mentioned in his “plans”.

We’re still seeing record high vacancies in office since COVID, with sub-leasing holding things together. But with 5-10 year leases signed before and around 2020 coming up for renewal, work from home saving many industries money, and employees demanding flexibility I see a lot more office space going vacant. Even with all the tech bros committing to bringing people back to work, this will naturally thin out their workforces of expensive employees and replaced with cheaper HB1 employees. Still less workers, less office space needed.

Same with the feds. They are bringing people back to the office. But with DOGE cutting federal employees, especially from the IRS, the feds will also need less space. Trump has mentioned cutting the GSA and selling off federal office properties (millions of square feet, billions in value) to help pay for tariffs, trade wars, and eliminating income tax.

This creates an even bigger supply of office space with less demand. Driving down prices and increasing vacancies making it harder for owners to cover costs, service debt, pay taxes, etc. This is a bubble well known for years now.

I see this making a post pandemic problem worse and would have wide ranging impacts to economic centers in red and blue states.

What am I missing?


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Becoming a decent sized problem here too. Business council, Melbourne City council and the Conservatives are all screaming for people to stop working remotely and return to the CBD. Their claim is its bad for small cafes and such that are under the pump. (funnily enough I have a share in a CBD hospitality business and we're making almost the same money we made pre-pandemic.) Naturally the real issue is the collapse in demand for office space and related rents, lots of smart operators are already transitioning into smaller offices and letting their employees work from home. And lets face it people love it, suddenly you've gained two to three hours a day because you don't have to commute.

Only real negative has been the rapid increase in regional house prices, in some rural areas especially if they are seaside, the price of real estate has doubled.

 

[BabyPeterzz]

It certainly can take decades, but that is almost always a function of how restrictive government decides to be. If the state and local governments work with developers, or even if they just get out of the way, I've seen revitalizing gentrification happen in the blink of an eye.

Yes, this true in some cases.


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[BabyPeterzz]

Becoming a decent sized problem here too. Business council, Melbourne City council and the Conservatives are all screaming for people to stop working remotely and return to the CBD. Their claim is its bad for small cafes and such that are under the pump. (funnily enough I have a share in a CBD hospitality business and we're making almost the same money we made pre-pandemic.) Naturally the real issue is the collapse in demand for office space and related rents, lots of smart operators are already transitioning into smaller offices and letting their employees work from home. And lets face it people love it, suddenly you've gained two to three hours a day because you don't have to commute.

Only real negative has been the rapid increase in regional house prices, in some rural areas especially if they are seaside, the price of real estate has doubled.

Yes, we’re seeing the same. Restaurants and retail in the CBD are still doing well, despite office vacancies at almost 40%. We have multiple federal buildings downtown too, those going dark would be crippling.

Same with housing. The state gov continues to blame zoning while proving no funding. SLC does all the heavy lifting for affordable housing in Utah, with a small handful of developers, while the state legislature drools.

I hope the new admin will address this. Reupping Opportunity Zones is most likely and should help. But we need big solutions here.


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[BabyPeterzz]

lol. Read this garbage they call news. Riddled with white supremest dog whistles and totally bias lies. You guys think this is real??? Newsflash retards, most of the stuff on the internet is fake propaganda. Guys, this rhetoric uses neo-Nazi propaganda tactics. White men especially, you’ve been fooled by nazis. Not the first time that happened so….i pity you. Kinda.

Trump-Subverting GSA Surrenders, and You Won't Believe Some of the Insane Stuff Being Deleted

redstate.com

DEI is their most popular dog whistle. These pesky minority populations exist and work and need to go! Trans especially. I mean, 1.6% of the US population is coming for your kids. Again, you’re dumb. Big ol dummies that can’t discern what’s real and what’s not. You don’t recognize bias, or you take trolling so far they’ve got you doing Nazi salutes. Wake up dudes. You’re hunting people and building concentration camps! Setting off your amazing abilities to sniff out ******** yet? I think your sniffer is broke.

Oh yeah, told you about the GSA.

You people really have no idea where this ends do you?

You’ll see.


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