Resetting Expectations -- Looking at the 7-year rebuild process

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I've been going back, looking at the rebuild process the Jazz have gone through since 2010/11 when Jerry Sloan retired and they traded Deron Williams. The team went through a complete re-boot, including bringing in Dennis Lindsey and replacing Ty Corbin with Quin Snyder, although Ty Corbin's coaching was part of our tank strategy.

Keep in mind that both Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors went through this entire process, beginning with playing behind Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap and even guys like Raja Bell, Josh Howard and Randy Foye for a year or two before being featured in the 25-win tank team. Things didn't go smoothly...

- Enes Kanter was the #3 pick in 2011, one of the worst drafts in recent memory.
- Alec Burks was an important lottery pick in that draft who has never stayed healthy for one reason or another. The Warriors got Klay Thompson one pick earlier.
- In 2012, the Warriors kamikaze'd their season and kept the Jazz from receiving a top-7 protected pick that could have yielded Harrison Barnes or maybe even Damian Lillard.
- In 2013, the Jazz used their GSW pick and their own lottery pick to draft Trey Burke as their point guard of the future, when they could have drafted CJ McCollum or Giannis. Fortunately, they nabbed Rudy Gobert at #27.
- The Jazz then intentionally tanked the 2013/14 season by not having enough depth to score more than 90 points per game. They finished with 25 wins and won a coin flip with Boston to get the 5th pick.
- They took trash players from Golden State so that the Warriors could sign Andre Iguodala. The result was an extra first-round pick in 2017 that eventually helped the Jazz draft Tony Bradley this year.
- That tanked season resulted in the Jazz drafting Dante Exum at #5 as the new potential PGOTF.
- In 2014/15 Enes Kanter demanded a trade. Rookies Dante Exum and Raul Neto were already pushing Trey Burke out of the rotation.
- After the Kanter trade, the Jazz started emerging as an elite defensive team and finished the season with 38 wins. Rudy was showing he was for real.
- In that summer, Dante Exum goes down with the ACL and the Jazz no longer had their starting point guard. At this point, the Jazz's four main lottery picks -- Favors, Burke, Kanter and Exum -- have yielded only one functioning rotation player.
- In 2015/16, Jazz fight injuries throughout the season while gradually ushering players like Elijah Millsap and Chris Johnson out of the rotation. Joe Ingles starts exceeding expectations. They miss the playoffs by one game, as Houston gets the 8th seed.

And so on...

I'm not complaining about any of this, mind you. I'm just pointing out that I'm a Jazz fan because I love the game and the process of building a team. It was only recently, that the Jazz started develop any expectations whatsoever of having playoff success.

The fact that we've rooted for players like Mo Williams, Demarre Carroll, Jamaal Tinsley, Jeremy Evans, Bryce Cotton, Jeff Cooley, etc. shows just how much we like the game itself, regardless of how many wins we're racking up.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The ugly truth is the core with Hayward was never beating Golden State anway. It would have been fun to try, and who knows, but the odds were always very low.

I think this team can still get into the playoffs and be fun, while still having growth upside. Then, who knows what happens. The Jazz nail a draft pick like Draymond Green or some blockbuster trade happens like what the Wolves got for Butler.

 

[JFFR]

You got so much information wrong! There was never an opportunity to get Lillard or Barnes. And the Jazz got Rodney Hood with a Warriors pick. As long as your are listing missed draft picks (which is a stupid thing to do) why not mention they missed on Leonard twice?

The rebuild was pathetic. It shouldn't have taken 7 years. They tricked the fan base into believing in the rebuild and were cheap cheap cheap as long as they could be.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We will need some luck... but we will be back and I am hopeful that when the GS reign is over we will be ready.

I think Rudy is committed to us. He's always had way more ownership than Hayward, Favs, et al... even Deron had some wishy washy commitment. We have some upside guys and we need to get lucky with a signing a pick a trade.

GSW had extreme fortune in their rebuild... like 5 or 6 things that are beyond their control that changed things for them.

We didn't do it perfectly, but I hope we do it right now. Don't sign someone this year under the pressure to replace Hayward. Don't find bandaids... find building blocks.

 

[stitches]

The worst thing is we never really got to see them at full strength. That's the saddest thing. And I absolutely adored this team... more than even the Stockton-Malone teams.

 

[NAOS]

We will need some luck... but we will be back and I am hopeful that when the GS reign is over we will be ready.

I think Rudy is committed to us. He's always had way more ownership than Hayward, Favs, et al... even Deron had some wishy washy commitment. We have some upside guys and we need to get lucky with a signing a pick a trade.

GSW had extreme fortune in their rebuild... like 5 or 6 things that are beyond their control that changed things for them.

We didn't do it perfectly, but I hope we do it right now. Don't sign someone this year under the pressure to replace Hayward. Don't find bandaids... find building blocks.

there are a thousand interrelated threads right now. Is there a place where you've proposed what these building blocks are?

 

[l Abach l]

Very interesting when looking at the past 7 years in hindsight. I'm not frustrated at the events that were out of our control (Kanter being a bust, Burke sucking, Burks' injuries, etc.). I'm angry at the things Jazz HAD control over - not tanking correctly a number of those years to get a better pick, not pursuing Barnes last off season, not getting anything in return for Millsap... it sucks. You have to have the stars align to win it all as a small market, and we're not helping ourselves by making these types of mistakes.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The ugly truth is the core with Hayward was never beating Golden State anway. It would have been fun to try, and who knows, but the odds were always very low.

I think this team can still get into the playoffs and be fun, while still having growth upside. Then, who knows what happens. The Jazz nail a draft pick like Draymond Green or some blockbuster trade happens like what the Wolves got for Butler.

Every team has a story like this to tell. It's very difficult to build a team that makes it all the way to the Finals. The Memphis Grizzlies with Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Tony Allen peaked in the WCF, losing to the Spurs. The Atlanta Hawks with Millsap, Horford, Korver, Teague, etc. won 60 gams and lost in the 2nd round. It's very, very hard.

When Dennis Lindsey first came onboard he surmised that the Jazz were "playoff competitive, but not championship competitive." DL gave the franchise a clear direction and led the team through these rough times.

The question is -- are the Jazz back in that stage where they're playoff competitive, but not championship competitive? And if so, do the Jazz set the clock back three years, or dip all the way back into the lottery to get more talent?

I live in San Francisco, so I'm aware of the Warriors' process. The Warriors drafted in the 7 - 10 range of the lottery, it seems just a bout every year for 5 years. They drafted well enough that the talent started to pile up -- Steph Curry, Monta Ellis (traded for Bogut), Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, etc. They then became attractive enough to recruit Andre Iguodala from Denver and then KD from OKC, but the Warriors' foundation and momentum came from drafting well.

The Jazz were close to having that same momentum -- Rudy, Hayward, Exum, Favors, now Mitchell. They were one or two good picks away. For any team, let alone a team that isn't a free-agent destination, you can't afford to miss on important draft picks. Trey Burke, Alec Burks, Enes Kanter and even Derrick Favors to some extent, didn't quite give the momentum they needed to advance beyond a 50-win team.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You got so much information wrong! There was never an opportunity to get Lillard or Barnes. And the Jazz got Rodney Hood with a Warriors pick. As long as your are listing missed draft picks (which is a stupid thing to do) why not mention they missed on Leonard twice?

The rebuild was pathetic. It shouldn't have taken 7 years. They tricked the fan base into believing in the rebuild and were cheap cheap cheap as long as they could be.

The biggest thing was them not anticipating the cap-spike when they were dealing with Hayward. Playing hardball with a player isnt a bad idea, but under the circumstances it was awful since any deal he would sign was going to be a bargain. I hope DL didnt know about the spike for his sake.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Every team has a story like this to tell. It's very difficult to build a team that makes it all the way to the Finals. The Memphis Grizzlies with Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Tony Allen peaked in the WCF, losing to the Spurs. The Atlanta Hawks with Millsap, Horford, Korver, Teague, etc. won 60 gams and lost in the 2nd round. It's very, very hard.

When Dennis Lindsey first came onboard he surmised that the Jazz were "playoff competitive, but not championship competitive." DL gave the franchise a clear direction and led the team through these rough times.

The question is -- are the Jazz back in that stage where they're playoff competitive, but not championship competitive? And if so, do the Jazz set the clock back three years, or dip all the way back into the lottery to get more talent?

I live in San Francisco, so I'm aware of the Warriors' process. The Warriors drafted in the 7 - 10 range of the lottery, it seems just a bout every year for 5 years. They drafted well enough that the talent started to pile up -- Steph Curry, Monta Ellis (traded for Bogut), Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, etc. They then became attractive enough to recruit Andre Iguodala from Denver and then KD from OKC, but the Warriors' foundation and momentum came from drafting well.

The Jazz were close to having that same momentum -- Rudy, Hayward, Exum, Favors, now Mitchell. They were one or two good picks away. For any team, let alone a team that isn't a free-agent destination, you can't afford to miss on important draft picks. Trey Burke, Alec Burks, Enes Kanter and even Derrick Favors to some extent, didn't quite give the momentum they needed to advance beyond a 50-win team.

I think the bar for "Championship Competitive" has been raised so high it's basically impossible to reach unless something catastrophic or flukey happens.

And yeah, the Warriors drafted well, but they also happen to be locate in what was the fastest growing city in America where a lot of money is located.

If Utah was located in NYC while they were doing what they were doing things would probably be different. You just cant **** up if you are a small market team, and Utah ****ed up, even though they were mostly all small minor things, too much (combined with injuries).

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I think the bar for "Championship Competitive" has been raised so high it's basically impossible to reach unless something catastrophic or flukey happens.

True. Some would argue that the Spurs were a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. Got the #1 pick when Tim Duncan was available. Drafted Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli. Got the best coach in the game. Drafted Kawhi Leonard at #15. Everyone stayed loyal to the organization and no one left in free agency. A pretty great confluence of events.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

To win, you've got to have not one, but preferably 2 or 3 of the top 10-15 players in the league.

Examples--

** Shaq & Kobe
** Kobe & Pau
** Lebron, Wade, Bosh
** Steph, KD, Draymond

Even OKC with Westbrook and KD fell short. Those draft picks OKC made with Westbrook, KD and Harden were legendary, and they couldn't make it work. All it takes is one mis-step and the process fails.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

True. Some would argue that the Spurs were a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. Got the #1 pick when Tim Duncan was available. Drafted Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli. Got the best coach in the game. Drafted Kawhi Leonard at #15. Everyone stayed loyal to the organization and no one left in free agency. A pretty great confluence of events.

Pretty much every great team in existence some flukey **** happened.

Where did the Bulls get Scottie Pippen? Some community college in Arkansas, right?

Curry had to get a bad ankle injury to get on a cheap contract.

Green went in the 2nd round and ends up being an DPOY and All-Star.

Spurs hit on Ginobili and Parker.

The Jazz did it with Gobert too, but the damn injuries held the team back from truly realizing the potential.

And winning breeds loyalty. It's how the Spurs have been able to stay great because they won early in the process of their rebuild once they got Duncan.

 

[Jazz Traveler]

I was frustrated during the Corbin years. Very hard to watch basketball that was bad and made you feel so miserable. Sucked all the joy out of something I loved.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Keep in mind, in 2014, the Jazz, Celtics, Bucks and Magic were all about in the same stage of rebuilding. They all drafted at the top of the lottery that year.

-- The Magic experienced a serious failure to launch and the GM Rob Hennigan was fired. Oladipo, Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, Mario Hezonja, etc.

-- Milwaukee was the worst team in the league at the time and was rewarded with Jabari Parker who tore his ACL not once, but twice. They still survived and became a playoff team because they drafted Giannis and play in the Eastern Conference.

-- Boston fleeced Brooklyn for top lottery picks. Ainge doesn't draft particularly well, but the chances of failure drop dramatically when you keep drafting in the top 3.

-- Utah built a team as good as Boston's, but took so long that they couldn't convince Hayward to stay. It's just unfortunate that the Jazz were drafting in the lottery of bad drafts.

Again, I still think it comes down to drafting. No matter what the team is, they have to acquire 3 or 4 really good players in consecutive drafts, plan to lose one or two of them due to fit or free agency, and then attract one or two free agents from there to complete the build. In the bigger picture, the Jazz couldn't afford to miss on Burke, Kanter, Burks and Exum (though Exum might still work out). The Jazz have Gobert and Mitchell, but the gap in age is a problem.

Now again, there's no guarantee the Jazz could make the Finals, but Lindsey was getting to the point he expected to make the WCF this year.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I was frustrated during the Corbin years. Very hard to watch basketball that was bad and made you feel so miserable. Sucked all the joy out of something I loved.

That's what tanking is. Imagine what the Sixers' fans have gone through, or Orlando, or Phoenix.

 

[Diamond77]

They tricked the fan base into believing in the rebuild and were cheap cheap cheap as long as they could be.

I have the sensation they are tricking us now too and they want to return in rebuilding mode.

I don't understand why Lindsey went in win-now mode last season trading the 12th overall pick for Hill 1 year rental, taking a veteran like Diaw and not considering to trade Hayward.

 

[tleikheen]

There is no resetting expectations.Jazz just move on without Hayward.Everyone in the NBA thinks Jazz have great young talent but now with the departure of Hayward it's time to play that talent.What's needed is the offense and defense need to enhance that talent.Jazz need to run with a floor general like Rubio on board.

I don't think Hayward even liked Snyders's slow down walk it up the court offense and it WON'T suit this team as well.Jazz have Rubio,Exum,Hood,Ingles,Burks,and now Mitchell for a fastbreak offense and pressure gambling defense.Let's get up and down the court.

 

[Diamond77]

Jazz need to run with a floor general like Rubio on board.

I don't think Hayward even liked Snyders's slow down walk it up the court offense and it WON'T suit this team as well.Jazz have Rubio,Exum,Hood,Ingles,Burks,and now Mitchell for a fastbreak offense and pressure gambling defense.Let's get up and down the court.

My friend, Quin seems so stubborn that I won't be surprised if he insist with his boring slow offense.

 

[Getting Traded]

My friend, Quin seems so stubborn that I won't be surprised if he insist with his boring slow offense.

I think the slow down offense was built for Hayward. It also emphasized the defensive side of the ball with Rudy as rim protector. We should speed it up now, but can play slow when the occasion suits it. We have two good low-post players in Favors, who I expect to fully recover, and Joe Jesus. Maybe Diaw too if we keep him.